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- siong516siong516
  ·2023-03-27
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  @美丽的花雨：
  寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺近期指數一應該都回會上近期指數一應該都回會上近期指數一應該都回會上
  寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺近期指數一應該都回會上近期指數一應該都回會上近期指數一應該都回會上
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- siong516siong516
  ·2022-12-02
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  How much of a stir will tonight's non-farm payrolls meeting cause? Bad news is good news, but if it goes too far, it might not be!
  如果非农就业增长如预期一样放缓，将助长美联储鸽派态度，美股或迎来上涨；但结合美国制造业指数陷入萎缩，若非农数据意外“爆冷”，将意味着美国经济正在滑向衰退。在美联储激进加息之下，美国劳动力市场换入“低速
  How much of a stir will tonight's non-farm payrolls meeting cause? Bad news is good news, but if it goes too far, it might not be!
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Bad news is good news, but if it goes too far, it might not be!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119372762","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"如果非农就业增长如预期一样放缓，将助长美联储鸽派态度，美股或迎来上涨；但结合美国制造业指数陷入萎缩，若非农数据意外“爆冷”，将意味着美国经济正在滑向衰退。在美联储激进加息之下，美国劳动力市场换入“低速","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If non-farm payroll growth slows as expected, it will fuel the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, potentially leading to a rise in US stocks. However, given the contraction of the US manufacturing index, if the non-farm payroll data unexpectedly \"cools down,\" it would mean that the US economy is sliding into recession. Under the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike, the U.S. labor market has shifted into \"low gear,\" but at the same time, it seems to be more resilient. U.S. non-farm payroll growth is expected to cool further in November, hitting its lowest level in nearly two years, while wage pressures remain undiminished and the unemployment rate may remain low.</p><p>Recently, news of layoffs in the US technology industry has been rampant, and multiple indicators show that the job market is cooling down. At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report, revealing the latest state of the U.S. labor market. Economists generally expect:</p><p><b>Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 200,000 in November, marking the smallest monthly increase since the end of 2020.</b>October saw an increase of 261,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%. The labor force participation rate is projected to be 62.3%, a slight increase from the previous value of 62.2%. Average hourly wages are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, similar to the average growth rate since the end of 2021, compared to 0.4% in the previous month. Average hourly wages are expected to fall to 4.6% year-on-year from 4.7% in October. If tonight's non-farm payroll growth slows as expected, it will fuel the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, potentially leading to a rise in US stocks. Given the contraction of the US manufacturing index, if the non-farm payroll data unexpectedly \"cools down,\" it would mean that the US economy is sliding into recession. However, if wage growth exceeds expectations, the market will see a more hawkish Federal Reserve.</p><p>The latest non-farm payroll forecast reports released by 23 major investment banks show that non-farm payroll growth will decline further in November, but there are significant differences in growth expectations among investment banks.<b>The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in November is expected to be between 150,000 and 240,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.5% and 3.8%, and the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages is expected to be between 4.6% and 4.7%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72153025bd4105555750862e05524043\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The job market is showing clear signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls expected to hit a near two-year low.</p><p><b>Economists expect the U.S. to add 200,000 non-farm payrolls in November, down from 261,000 in October and the smallest since the end of 2020, but still above pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p>Barclays analysis points out that private sector employment declined even faster, from 233,000 in October to 150,000. It is expected that the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy will have a greater impact on labor demand, with the average overall non-farm payrolls increasing by about 180,000 in the fourth quarter.</p><p>The ADP non-farm payrolls data was a surprise, job vacancy rates declined, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits reached a record high, and business confidence deteriorated significantly...<b>Numerous previously released data indicators suggest that the growth momentum of the US labor market is slowing further. Specifically:</b></p><p>On Wednesday, the ADP, known as the \"mini-non-farm payrolls,\" added fewer jobs than expected, hitting its lowest level since January 2021, and wage growth also began to slow. On Wednesday, JOLTS data, a favorite of former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, showed that U.S. job vacancies fell in October, the voluntary turnover rate dropped to 2.6%, the lowest level since May 2021, and total hiring fell to its lowest level since January 2021. On Thursday, the number of layoffs at challenger companies in the United States quadrupled year-on-year in November, with technology companies experiencing the most significant layoffs. On Thursday, the number of people renewing jobless claims in the United States rose to its highest level since February, and the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose slightly to 228,750. It is worth mentioning that with increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook, many companies have begun laying off employees and freezing recruitment. In recent months, several companies in industries such as technology, finance, and real estate have announced thousands of job cuts. According to a report by consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., employers announced 76,835 layoffs in November, more than double the number in October.</p><p>KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said the November non-farm payrolls report is more likely to see an unexpected decline. She noted that the number of workers taking sick leave could continue to be a trigger, and that more companies have already announced hiring freezes. Retail is usually the bright spot in November, but there are signs that...<b>Employment growth in the retail sector is not as fast as usual this holiday season.</b></p><p>However, some analysts are optimistic. Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, pointed out that non-farm payrolls should slow down in some direction, but it is still expected to be quite good. Gapen said that they will closely monitor the construction industry to see if there are more unemployment in the sector.</p><p>Wage pressure remains high, and the unemployment rate remains low.</p><p><b>Meanwhile, the labor market remains tight, wage pressures are similar to the average rate since the end of 2021, and the unemployment rate remains at 3.7%, still near a 50-year low.</b></p><p><b>Specifically, average hourly wages are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and remain at 4.7% year-on-year, a slowdown from the peak of 5.6% earlier this year.</b></p><p>In addition, according to the U.S. government's employment cost index, private sector wage growth rose 5.2% in the 12 months ending in September, down from 5.7% in the previous quarter, but still at the highest level on record. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s wage growth tracker is down slightly from a record 6.7% last summer, but remains at 6.4%.</p><p>However, it is clear that this is still some distance from what the Federal Reserve hopes to see wage growth slow to 2% to 3% before the pandemic. In a speech at the Brookings Institution, Powell pointed out that it is clear that strong wage growth is a good thing, but for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2% inflation.</p><p><b>Regarding the unemployment rate, it has been fluctuating over the past few months, unexpectedly rising to 3.7% in October, and is expected to remain at 3.7% for the second consecutive month, close to a 50-year low.</b></p><p>However, if the unemployment rate continues to rise in November, it will sound alarm bells for recession observers. As the rate hike continues, it will slow economic growth and trigger more layoffs. The Federal Reserve had previously predicted that the unemployment rate would rise to 4.4% next year, but now some officials say it could rise to nearly 5%.</p><p>Overall, Nomura points out that despite the slowdown in hiring and departures, the labor market remains tight, with the vacancy and unemployment rate (VU) declining slightly from 1.86 in September to 1.71 in October, but still well above pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c5ada2d42ba251f3d31aceaac65000\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Regarding the labor force participation rate (LFPR), it is currently stagnant at around 62%, which means that only 62 out of every 100 people aged 16 or older are currently working or looking for work, and will rise slightly to 62.3% in November. Nomura believes that a stronger recovery in labor supply is one of the few ways the Federal Reserve can achieve a soft landing.</p><p>Consolidate expectations of a slowdown in rate hike</p><p>A cooling labor market will solidify expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of rate hike in December, but more importantly, it will affect the level of terminal interest rates.</p><p>Oxford economists pointed out that job growth may continue to slow in November.<b>This is expected to consolidate expectations of a slowdown in the pace of rate hike.</b>If the slowdown in the U.S. job market becomes too pronounced, it could affect market bets on terminal interest rates next year. Rising wage growth will see traders bet on a more hawkish Federal Reserve; conversely, it will lead to a dovish reaction.</p><p>For the Federal Reserve, the cooling job market is good news, as a tight labor market will put upward pressure on wages, leading to higher prices. The Federal Reserve had previously hinted that it would slow the pace and magnitude of rate hike in December.</p><p>However, the current pace of cooling does not seem to satisfy the Federal Reserve. In his speech, Powell pointed out that job vacancies exceed the current workforce by about 4 million, meaning that for every job seeker, there are about 1.7 job vacancies. So far, only initial signs of easing labor demand have been seen. The Federal Reserve's goal is that the economy only needs to add about 100,000 new jobs per month.</p><p>How will US stocks perform tonight?</p><p>Goldman Sachs trader John Flood pointed out that the current situation is still mainly one of \"bad news is good news,\" but this situation is nearing its end. Following Powell's speech yesterday, there is now more talk about \"growth/recession issues\" than \"how much interest rates can be raised.\" Specifically, John Flood predicts:</p><p><ul><li>>261,000: S&P 500 fell by at least 2%;</li><li>175,000-261,000: The S&P 500 fell 1-2%;</li><li>125K-175,000: S&P 500 rose 0.5%-1%;</li><li>0-125,000: The S&P 500 rose 1-2%;</li><li><0: S&P 500 fell 1-2% due to \"recession\" fears;</li></ul>Morgan Stanley's sales team pointed out that given the recent unexpected decline in CPI has already indicated a slowdown in inflation, the non-farm payroll data is not expected to cause much of a stir. Their conclusion is:</p><p><ul><li>The optimal range is 100,000 to 125,000, which will allow the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate hike.</li><li><25,000: Unfavorable for US stocks, non-farm payrolls are slowing too quickly;</li><li>>250,000: The Fed will be more hawkish during its December rate hike, and expectations of a \"75 basis point\" rate hike may reignite.</li></ul></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How much of a stir will tonight's non-farm payrolls meeting cause? 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Bad news is good news, but if it goes too far, it might not be!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 18:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If non-farm payroll growth slows as expected, it will fuel the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, potentially leading to a rise in US stocks. However, given the contraction of the US manufacturing index, if the non-farm payroll data unexpectedly \"cools down,\" it would mean that the US economy is sliding into recession. Under the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike, the U.S. labor market has shifted into \"low gear,\" but at the same time, it seems to be more resilient. U.S. non-farm payroll growth is expected to cool further in November, hitting its lowest level in nearly two years, while wage pressures remain undiminished and the unemployment rate may remain low.</p><p>Recently, news of layoffs in the US technology industry has been rampant, and multiple indicators show that the job market is cooling down. At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report, revealing the latest state of the U.S. labor market. Economists generally expect:</p><p><b>Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 200,000 in November, marking the smallest monthly increase since the end of 2020.</b>October saw an increase of 261,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%. The labor force participation rate is projected to be 62.3%, a slight increase from the previous value of 62.2%. Average hourly wages are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, similar to the average growth rate since the end of 2021, compared to 0.4% in the previous month. Average hourly wages are expected to fall to 4.6% year-on-year from 4.7% in October. If tonight's non-farm payroll growth slows as expected, it will fuel the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, potentially leading to a rise in US stocks. Given the contraction of the US manufacturing index, if the non-farm payroll data unexpectedly \"cools down,\" it would mean that the US economy is sliding into recession. However, if wage growth exceeds expectations, the market will see a more hawkish Federal Reserve.</p><p>The latest non-farm payroll forecast reports released by 23 major investment banks show that non-farm payroll growth will decline further in November, but there are significant differences in growth expectations among investment banks.<b>The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in November is expected to be between 150,000 and 240,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.5% and 3.8%, and the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages is expected to be between 4.6% and 4.7%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72153025bd4105555750862e05524043\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The job market is showing clear signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls expected to hit a near two-year low.</p><p><b>Economists expect the U.S. to add 200,000 non-farm payrolls in November, down from 261,000 in October and the smallest since the end of 2020, but still above pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p>Barclays analysis points out that private sector employment declined even faster, from 233,000 in October to 150,000. It is expected that the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy will have a greater impact on labor demand, with the average overall non-farm payrolls increasing by about 180,000 in the fourth quarter.</p><p>The ADP non-farm payrolls data was a surprise, job vacancy rates declined, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits reached a record high, and business confidence deteriorated significantly...<b>Numerous previously released data indicators suggest that the growth momentum of the US labor market is slowing further. Specifically:</b></p><p>On Wednesday, the ADP, known as the \"mini-non-farm payrolls,\" added fewer jobs than expected, hitting its lowest level since January 2021, and wage growth also began to slow. On Wednesday, JOLTS data, a favorite of former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, showed that U.S. job vacancies fell in October, the voluntary turnover rate dropped to 2.6%, the lowest level since May 2021, and total hiring fell to its lowest level since January 2021. On Thursday, the number of layoffs at challenger companies in the United States quadrupled year-on-year in November, with technology companies experiencing the most significant layoffs. On Thursday, the number of people renewing jobless claims in the United States rose to its highest level since February, and the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose slightly to 228,750. It is worth mentioning that with increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook, many companies have begun laying off employees and freezing recruitment. In recent months, several companies in industries such as technology, finance, and real estate have announced thousands of job cuts. According to a report by consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., employers announced 76,835 layoffs in November, more than double the number in October.</p><p>KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said the November non-farm payrolls report is more likely to see an unexpected decline. She noted that the number of workers taking sick leave could continue to be a trigger, and that more companies have already announced hiring freezes. Retail is usually the bright spot in November, but there are signs that...<b>Employment growth in the retail sector is not as fast as usual this holiday season.</b></p><p>However, some analysts are optimistic. Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, pointed out that non-farm payrolls should slow down in some direction, but it is still expected to be quite good. Gapen said that they will closely monitor the construction industry to see if there are more unemployment in the sector.</p><p>Wage pressure remains high, and the unemployment rate remains low.</p><p><b>Meanwhile, the labor market remains tight, wage pressures are similar to the average rate since the end of 2021, and the unemployment rate remains at 3.7%, still near a 50-year low.</b></p><p><b>Specifically, average hourly wages are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and remain at 4.7% year-on-year, a slowdown from the peak of 5.6% earlier this year.</b></p><p>In addition, according to the U.S. government's employment cost index, private sector wage growth rose 5.2% in the 12 months ending in September, down from 5.7% in the previous quarter, but still at the highest level on record. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s wage growth tracker is down slightly from a record 6.7% last summer, but remains at 6.4%.</p><p>However, it is clear that this is still some distance from what the Federal Reserve hopes to see wage growth slow to 2% to 3% before the pandemic. In a speech at the Brookings Institution, Powell pointed out that it is clear that strong wage growth is a good thing, but for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2% inflation.</p><p><b>Regarding the unemployment rate, it has been fluctuating over the past few months, unexpectedly rising to 3.7% in October, and is expected to remain at 3.7% for the second consecutive month, close to a 50-year low.</b></p><p>However, if the unemployment rate continues to rise in November, it will sound alarm bells for recession observers. As the rate hike continues, it will slow economic growth and trigger more layoffs. The Federal Reserve had previously predicted that the unemployment rate would rise to 4.4% next year, but now some officials say it could rise to nearly 5%.</p><p>Overall, Nomura points out that despite the slowdown in hiring and departures, the labor market remains tight, with the vacancy and unemployment rate (VU) declining slightly from 1.86 in September to 1.71 in October, but still well above pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c5ada2d42ba251f3d31aceaac65000\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Regarding the labor force participation rate (LFPR), it is currently stagnant at around 62%, which means that only 62 out of every 100 people aged 16 or older are currently working or looking for work, and will rise slightly to 62.3% in November. Nomura believes that a stronger recovery in labor supply is one of the few ways the Federal Reserve can achieve a soft landing.</p><p>Consolidate expectations of a slowdown in rate hike</p><p>A cooling labor market will solidify expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of rate hike in December, but more importantly, it will affect the level of terminal interest rates.</p><p>Oxford economists pointed out that job growth may continue to slow in November.<b>This is expected to consolidate expectations of a slowdown in the pace of rate hike.</b>If the slowdown in the U.S. job market becomes too pronounced, it could affect market bets on terminal interest rates next year. Rising wage growth will see traders bet on a more hawkish Federal Reserve; conversely, it will lead to a dovish reaction.</p><p>For the Federal Reserve, the cooling job market is good news, as a tight labor market will put upward pressure on wages, leading to higher prices. The Federal Reserve had previously hinted that it would slow the pace and magnitude of rate hike in December.</p><p>However, the current pace of cooling does not seem to satisfy the Federal Reserve. In his speech, Powell pointed out that job vacancies exceed the current workforce by about 4 million, meaning that for every job seeker, there are about 1.7 job vacancies. So far, only initial signs of easing labor demand have been seen. The Federal Reserve's goal is that the economy only needs to add about 100,000 new jobs per month.</p><p>How will US stocks perform tonight?</p><p>Goldman Sachs trader John Flood pointed out that the current situation is still mainly one of \"bad news is good news,\" but this situation is nearing its end. Following Powell's speech yesterday, there is now more talk about \"growth/recession issues\" than \"how much interest rates can be raised.\" Specifically, John Flood predicts:</p><p><ul><li>>261,000: S&P 500 fell by at least 2%;</li><li>175,000-261,000: The S&P 500 fell 1-2%;</li><li>125K-175,000: S&P 500 rose 0.5%-1%;</li><li>0-125,000: The S&P 500 rose 1-2%;</li><li><0: S&P 500 fell 1-2% due to \"recession\" fears;</li></ul>Morgan Stanley's sales team pointed out that given the recent unexpected decline in CPI has already indicated a slowdown in inflation, the non-farm payroll data is not expected to cause much of a stir. Their conclusion is:</p><p><ul><li>The optimal range is 100,000 to 125,000, which will allow the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate hike.</li><li><25,000: Unfavorable for US stocks, non-farm payrolls are slowing too quickly;</li><li>>250,000: The Fed will be more hawkish during its December rate hike, and expectations of a \"75 basis point\" rate hike may reignite.</li></ul></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676498\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676498","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119372762","content_text":"如果非农就业增长如预期一样放缓，将助长美联储鸽派态度，美股或迎来上涨；但结合美国制造业指数陷入萎缩，若非农数据意外“爆冷”，将意味着美国经济正在滑向衰退。在美联储激进加息之下，美国劳动力市场换入“低速挡”，但同时似乎也更具韧性。美国11月非农就业增长预计进一步降温，料创下近两年最低水平，而工资压力难减，失业率或维持在低位。近期，美国科技行业裁员消息铺天盖地，多个指标显示就业市场正在降温。北京时间周五21:30，美国劳工部将发布备受市场关注的非农报告，揭晓美国劳动力市场最新现状。经济学家普遍预计：11月新增非农就业人数预计将增加20万，创2020年底以来最小月度增幅，10月为增加26.1万。失业率预计保持在3.7%。劳动力参与率预计为62.3%，较前值62.2%微幅上升。平均时薪环比预计上升0.3%，与2021年末以来的平均增速相近，前值为0.4%，平均时薪同比预计从10月的4.7%降至4.6%。如果今晚公布的非农就业增长如预期一样放缓，将助长美联储鸽派态度，美股或迎来上涨；而结合美国制造业指数陷入萎缩，如果非农数据意外“爆冷”，将意味着美国经济正在滑向衰退；但若工资增长超预期上行，市场将看到一个更鹰派的美联储。23家大型投行发布的最新非农前瞻报告显示，11月非农就业增长将进一步下滑，但投行之间的增幅预期差异较大。美国11月非农新增就业人数预计介于15万-24万，失业率预计介于3.5%-3.8%，平均时薪同比增速预计介于4.6%-4.7%。就业市场降温迹象明显 非农新增料创近两年新低经济学家预计，美国11月份非农新增就业20万人，低于10月份的26.1万，为2020年年底以来最小规模，但仍超过疫情前的水平。巴克莱分析指出，私营部门就业人数的下降速度更快，从10月份的23.3万人降至15万人，预计美联储收紧货币政策对劳动力需求的影响加大，四季度非农整体平均就业增长约18万人。小非农ADP爆冷、职位空缺率下降、续请失业金人数创新高、商业信心大幅恶化......先前公布的众多数据指标都表明美国劳动力市场增长势头正进一步放缓，具体来看：周三，有“小非农”之称的ADP新增就业人数不及预期，创下2021年1月以来的最低水平，工资增速也开始放缓。周三，前美联储主席耶伦最喜欢的JOLTS数据显示，美国10月职位空缺下降，自主离职率降至2.6%，为2021年5月以来的最低水平，总招聘人数降至2021年1月以来的最低。周四，美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数同比暴增四倍，其中科技公司裁员最为猛烈。周四，美国续请失业救济金的人数升至今年2月以来的最高水平，首次申请失业救济人数的四周移动平均值小幅上涨至22.875万人。值得一提的是，随着经济前景的不确定性增加，众多企业开启裁员并冻结招聘。近几个月，科技、金融和房地产等行业的多家公司宣布裁员数千人，根据咨询公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.的报告，11月份雇主宣布裁员76835人，是10月份的两倍多。毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，11月的非农报告更有可能出现意外下滑。她指出，因病请假的工人人数可能继续成为的一个触发因素，而且已经有更多公司宣布冻结招聘。零售业通常是11月的亮点，但有迹象显示，这个节日季零售业的就业增长没有往常那么快。但同时也有分析师持乐观态度，美国银行首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen指出，非农应该会出现方向性放缓，但预计仍会相当不错，Gapen称将密切关注建筑业，看看该领域是否出现更多失业。工资上涨压力不减 失业率维持在低水平与此同时，劳动力市场依然紧张，工资压力与2021年末以来的平均速度相近，失业率维持在3.7%，仍接近50年来的低点。具体来看，平均时薪环比预计上升0.3%，同比增速保持在4.7%，较今年早些时候的峰值5.6%有所放缓。此外，根据美国政府就业成本指数数据，截至9月的12个月，私营部门工资增长率增长了5.2%，比上一季度的5.7%有所下降，但仍处于有记录以来的最高水平。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的工资增长追踪器从去年夏天创纪录的6.7%略有下降，但仍保持在6.4%的水平。但很明显，这与美联储希望看到工资增长放缓至疫情前的2%至3%仍有一定的距离。鲍威尔在布鲁金斯学会的一次演讲中指出，很明显，强劲的工资增长是一件好事，但要使工资增长可持续，它需要与2%的通货膨胀保持一致。失业率方面，过去几个月失业率持续波动，10月份意外上升至3.7%，预计将连续第二个月保持在3.7%，接近50年来的低点。然而，如果11月失业率继续上升，将给经济衰退观察者敲响警钟。随着继续加息，将减缓经济增长并引发更多裁员，美联储此前预测明年失业率将升至4.4%，但现在一些官员表示，失业率可能会升至接近5%。总的来看，野村指出，尽管招聘和离职速度放缓，劳动力市场仍然紧张，空缺与失业率（VU）从9月的1.86略微下降至10月的1.71，但仍远高于疫情前的水平。关于劳动力参与率（LFPR），目前停滞在62%左右，这意味着每100名16岁或以上的人中只有62人正在或寻找工作，11月将微幅上升至62.3%。野村认为，劳动力供应的更强劲复苏是美联储实现软着陆的少数途径之一。巩固放缓加息步伐预期劳动力市场降温将巩固美联储12月放缓加息步伐预期，但更关键的是如何影响终端利率水平。牛津经济学家指出，11月就业增长可能会继续放缓，预计将巩固放缓加息步伐预期。如果美国就业市场放缓的趋势过于明显，可能影响市场对明年终端利率的押注。工资增长上行将看到交易员对更鹰派的美联储赌注，相反，则导致鸽派反应。对美联储来说，就业市场降温是一个好消息，紧张的劳动市场会给工资带来上涨的压力，从而导致物价水平上升。美联储此前曾暗示，12月将放缓加息速度和幅度。但现在降温速度似乎还不能令美联储满意，鲍威尔在演讲中指出，职位空缺则超过现有工人约400万，即每一个找工作的人对应大约1.7个职位空缺。迄今为止，只看到劳动力需求缓和的初步迹象。而美联储的目标是，经济每月只需要增加大约10万个新工作岗位。今晚美股会作何表现？高盛交易员John Flood指出，目前仍然主要处于“坏消息就是好消息”的状态，但正在接近这种状态的尾声。在鲍威尔昨天发表演讲后，现在谈论“增长/衰退问题”比“利率可以提高多少”还要多。具体来看，John Flood预计：>26.1万：标普最少下跌2%；17.5万—26.1万：标普下跌1-2%；12.5k—17.5万：标普上涨0.5%—1%；0—12.5万：标普上涨1-2%；<0：标普因“recession”恐惧下跌1-2%；摩根士丹利销售团队指出，鉴于最近CPI超预期下降已经显示通胀放缓，非农数据预计不会掀起太大的波澜，其结论是：最佳区间好是10万—12.5万，这将允许美联储放缓加息步伐；<2.5万：对美股不利，非农放缓速度过快；>25万：美联储将在12月加息时更鹰派，“75基点”加息预期或重燃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}