$SPY: Failed Breakout, Death Cross Still in Place, Volatility Is Rising
Another failed breakout attempt for $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . The 20-day MA remains below the 10-day MA, keeping the death cross in place. Yesterday's rally ran into resistance at the declining 20-day MA, and today's sell-off exposed the weakness behind that rebound. ATR-based volatility has also expanded over the past two weeks. I believe we're transitioning into a more volatile, two-sided market, with sharp rallies and sell-offs alternating across sessions. Expect larger percentage swings, but within the broader downtrend channel. Don't mistake a strong futures bounce for a confirmed trend reversal. Even if futures are up more than 1.5% tomorrow, as they were yesterday, that alone isn't a reason to chase swing-long setups. Stay discipli
A Further Pullback May Be Healthier 📈 Breadth Is Improving Market breadth continues to recover from last week, but $ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ stalled at the confluence of the 20-day moving average and upper channel resistance, facing rejection in the final 15 minutes of trading. 🎯 What Comes Next? A positive FOMC surprise could push the market higher. But another pullback within the channel may create a stronger foundation for the next advance. That would give more individual stocks time to establish relative strength and form cleaner setups before the market attempts another leg higher. 💡 The Takeaway: A further dip wouldn't necessarily be bearish. If breadth continues improving, a controlled pullback could help set up a more sustainable
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Looking at the two recent corrections in late July and mid-September, both featured a 20 vs 10-MA death cross, with price action trapped within a descending channel. The message is pretty similar for the week; stay away from breakouts until the market decisively breaks out of its current channel/wedge which will coincide with the reclaims of both the 10-MA and 20-MA. This is not a market to force trades. But don't abandon the process. Continue diligently building your watchlist around relative strength in individual industry groups and leading names. No need to trade the market you have, but prepare for the market you want.
Today’s $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ price action has the look of a potential reversal, similar to the July 17 bounce. I’ve already taken three positions and am considering a fourth. But there’s a second scenario to keep in mind: the bounce could fade over the next 3–4 days, followed by a move below today’s low, much like July 23. The key is your timeframe and entry quality. If your setup offers a tight entry with a clear invalidation level, the opportunity may still be worth taking. If you’re trading a short-term bounce, chasing after the initial move can leave you exposed if momentum fades. Don’t confuse a reversal signal with confirmation. Know your holding timeframe, define the level that invalidates your thesis, and ask whether the market is still offer