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jekok

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- jekokjekok
  ·2023-06-23
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  4 Top Dividend Payers of the S&P 500
  High-yielding S&P 500 stocks need to be examined carefully. Some can be highly risky.
  4 Top Dividend Payers of the S&P 500
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- jekokjekok
  ·2022-10-25
  $ENECO ENERGY LIMITED(R14.SI)$
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- jekokjekok
  ·2022-10-25
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  Better Cloud Stock: Zoom Video Communications vs. RingCentral
  Which cloud-based communications company is a better buy?
  Better Cloud Stock: Zoom Video Communications vs. RingCentral
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- jekokjekok
  ·2022-10-25
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  Which Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows
  Recession-proof stocks must offer something that makes investors want to buy them even when the economy is tanking.
  Which Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows
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- jekokjekok
  ·2022-09-27
  $EC WORLD REIT(BWCU.SI)$
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- jekokjekok
  ·2022-09-23
  [Cool]
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- jekokjekok
  ·2022-09-22
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  Singapore’s Rising Costs of Running a Business Outpace Hong Kong
  Singapore looks like an attractive location for firms wanting to exit Hong Kong, but they may find a
  Singapore’s Rising Costs of Running a Business Outpace Hong Kong
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- jekokjekok
  ·2022-09-22
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  Upstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
  SummaryIn 2022, Upstart's lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding par
  Upstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
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- jekokjekok
  ·2022-09-22
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  Fed Delivers Another Big Rate Hike; Powell Vows to "Keep at It"
  Fed lifts target interest rate to 3.00%-3.25% rangeForecasts show another large hike likely by end o
  Fed Delivers Another Big Rate Hike; Powell Vows to "Keep at It"
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- jekokjekok
  ·2022-09-22
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  US STOCKS-Wall Street Slumps As Investors Absorb Hawkish Fed Rate Message
  * Fed raises rates by 75 bps to 3-3.25% range* Terminal rate seen hitting 4.6% in 2023* Investors ha
  US STOCKS-Wall Street Slumps As Investors Absorb Hawkish Fed Rate Message
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Some can be highly risky.","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSHigh yields are not always a good thing, with some indicating a high risk of a dividend cut.Some companies have proven they can support a high yield thanks to their solid business ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/22/4-top-dividend-payers-of-the-sp-500/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Top Dividend Payers of the S&P 500</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Top Dividend Payers of the S&P 500\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-23 06:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/22/4-top-dividend-payers-of-the-sp-500/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSHigh yields are not always a good thing, with some indicating a high risk of a dividend cut.Some companies have proven they can support a high yield thanks to their solid business ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/22/4-top-dividend-payers-of-the-sp-500/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","MO":"奥驰亚","VZ":"Verizon Comms","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LNC":"林肯国民","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","KEY":"KeyCorp","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/22/4-top-dividend-payers-of-the-sp-500/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2345752034","content_text":"KEY POINTSHigh yields are not always a good thing, with some indicating a high risk of a dividend cut.Some companies have proven they can support a high yield thanks to their solid business fundamentals.Some high-yield stocks have risks that go beyond the financial realm.Advance Auto Parts was one of the highest-yielding stocks in the S&P 500 index not so long ago. And then it drastically reduced its dividend, trimming the quarterly payout by 83%. This is why simply buying the highest yield isn't always the best idea.For those seeking out high yields, here are the four top dividend-yielding stocks in the S&P 500 index at the moment. Let's take a closer look at each and determine why each company is on the list and whether they will remain there.1. Altria: A slow attrition and a rising riskAltria sits atop the S&P 500 for dividend yield right now, with a huge 8.5% yield. The company mainly sells cigarettes in the United States under iconic names like Marlboro. This single fact might keep many investors away, given the health issues surrounding cigarettes. But there's more to the story.Altria has long faced a slow attrition of customers as smoking has fallen out of favor. It has been increasing prices to offset the impact, allowing it to keep supporting its big dividend. Meanwhile, it has looked for ways to reach beyond cigarettes.There are risks on both sides here. It is likely that, eventually, the number of smokers will drop so low that raising prices will no longer be a viable tactic. And it has made material strategic errors as it looks to expand, including billions in write-offs related to a marijuana investment and its investment in Juul, a vaping company that fell on hard times. Investors with a conservative bent should probably avoid Altria.2. KeyCorp: Caught up in a crisis that has endedKeyCorp is a regional U.S. bank with an 8.2% dividend yield. The company's shares got caught up in the banking crisis in early 2023 when a number of regional banks faced bank runs, and a few ended up closing. However, KeyCorp seems to have held up fairly well, with deposits only falling around 1.6% in the first quarter of the year. While banking and checking account deposits slid nearly 5%, it appears that much of that cash merely shifted to things like CDs, which offer higher yields, within the bank itself.That said, KeyCorp's Tier 1 ratio was 9.1%, which is a bit low compared to the strongest banks. So there is a reason for the high yield. And yet, during the first-quarter 2023 earnings conference call, management highlighted its commitment to the dividend. While this is not a low-risk investment choice, more aggressive types might want to do a deep dive as this could be a case of the baby getting tossed out with the bathwater.3. Lincoln National: Stuck in an insurance rutLincoln National has a roughly 7.4% dividend yield. The company operates in the insurance industry. New accounting rules led to a first-quarter 2023 loss of $5.37 per share compared to a profit of $8.39 in the same quarter of 2022. Those two figures help explain why investors might be worried about the dividend here. Adding to the concern is that Lincoln National is \"Executing on our objectives to rebuild capital and increase ongoing free cash flow,\" according to management. Coupled with the red ink, the company is clearly not operating from a position of strength today. Management estimates that its adjusted earnings, which takes out one-time items, totaled $1.52 per share, which is more than enough to pay the stock's $0.45-per-share quarterly dividend. However, this is clearly a turnaround play right now that's only appropriate for more aggressive investors.4. Verizon: Operating in a capital-intensive sectorTelecom Verizon Communications and its roughly 7.2% dividend yield rounds out the list of top S&P 500 dividend stocks. The company is one of the largest cellular service providers in the United States. It also has sizable operations in lines directly into customers' homes, such as its fiber-optic-based FiOS business. It has long been a leading telecom stock and a fairly consistent dividend payer. Although the dividend hasn't increased every year, it has trended generally higher over time. It is probably the lowest-risk option on this list.And yet there are some caveats to consider. For example, the telecom industry is capital-intensive and cellular technology is in the middle of yet another upgrade cycle. Verizon's balance sheet is heavily leveraged with a debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 1.6 times, a bit higher than the 1.4 times or so of its closest peer, AT&T. Also, the company's legacy businesses are under pressure as more people switch to using cellular-only services. Cellular service, meanwhile, is highly competitive. So Verizon's high yield exists for a reason, though, given the history here, the company has proven to be an adept competitor and probably offers a good risk/reward balance for most investors.Tread carefullyThe four companies on this list of high-yield stocks are all very different. They all have high yields for a reason, with some in a better position to sustain the dividends than others. KeyCorp and Verizon are probably the most attractive, given their histories and businesses. Altria and Lincoln National are more risky, with Altria bringing up social issues that might lead investors to look elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LNC":1.1,"MO":1.1,"VZ":1.1,"KEY":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988137245,"gmtCreate":1666690490191,"gmtModify":1676537790411,"author":{"id":"4115455742852712","authorId":"4115455742852712","name":"jekok","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd8eef5e8647765552db7a9157795fd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115455742852712","idStr":"4115455742852712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/R14.SI\">$ENECO ENERGY LIMITED(R14.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/R14.SI\">$ENECO ENERGY LIMITED(R14.SI)$</a>","text":"$ENECO ENERGY LIMITED(R14.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bcd5b7c7546bf35c5ae611448dc35e6f","width":"720","height":"1435"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988137245","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988137891,"gmtCreate":1666690449417,"gmtModify":1676537790405,"author":{"id":"4115455742852712","authorId":"4115455742852712","name":"jekok","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd8eef5e8647765552db7a9157795fd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115455742852712","idStr":"4115455742852712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988137891","repostId":"1103591408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103591408","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666688726,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103591408?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 17:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Cloud Stock: Zoom Video Communications vs. RingCentral","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103591408","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Which cloud-based communications company is a better buy?","content":"<div>\n<p>Zoom Video Communications and RingCentral both disrupted traditional phone calls with cloud-based communication services. Zoom, which was founded in 2011, initially simplified online video calls ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/25/better-cloud-stock-zoom-video-communications-vs-ri/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Cloud Stock: Zoom Video Communications vs. RingCentral</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Cloud Stock: Zoom Video Communications vs. RingCentral\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-25 17:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/25/better-cloud-stock-zoom-video-communications-vs-ri/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Zoom Video Communications and RingCentral both disrupted traditional phone calls with cloud-based communication services. Zoom, which was founded in 2011, initially simplified online video calls ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/25/better-cloud-stock-zoom-video-communications-vs-ri/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom","RNG":"Ringcentral Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/25/better-cloud-stock-zoom-video-communications-vs-ri/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103591408","content_text":"Zoom Video Communications and RingCentral both disrupted traditional phone calls with cloud-based communication services. Zoom, which was founded in 2011, initially simplified online video calls before rolling out voice-only calls and other collaboration features. RingCentral, which was founded in 1999, created a cloud-based private branch exchange (PBX) business telephone system called RingCentral Office. It subsequently expanded that ecosystem with virtual fax services, collaboration tools, and videoconferencing tools licensed from Zoom.Investors flocked to both stocks during the buying frenzy in growth stocks in 2020 and 2021. Zoom's stock closed at an all-time high of $568.34 in October 2020, but it now trades at roughly $80. Likewise, RingCentral's stock reached its all-time high of $443.29 last February, but it's now worth about $33 a share. Both stocks fizzled out as rising interest rates drove investors away from higher-growth tech stocks. But is either beaten-down cloud communications stock still worth buying today?IMAGE SOURCE: ZOOM.What happened to Zoom?Zoom's revenue soared 326% to $2.7 billion in fiscal 2021, which ended in January of the calendar year, as more people worked from home, attended online classes, and stayed in touch through screens throughout the pandemic. Zoom's catchy brand and streamlined interface enabled it to disrupt older videoconference platforms like Microsoft's Skype and Cisco's Webex. Its meteoric growth prompted many other tech companies to launch similar services.But in fiscal 2022, Zoom's revenue only rose 55% to $4.1 billion as the lockdown measures ended. In fiscal 2023, it expects its revenue to increase a mere 7% to about $4.4 billion, which indicates its high-growth days are over.Last year, Zoom attempted to buy Five9, a provider of cloud-based contact center software, to expand its ecosystem and boost its sales as its core business cooled off. But Five9's investors rejected Zoom's offer and the deal was terminated last September.Zoom is still profitable by both generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and non-GAAP (adjusted) measures. After surging a whopping 854% in fiscal 2021, Zoom's non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) increased another 52% in fiscal 2022. But in fiscal 2023, it's bracing for a 27% to 28% decline as it ramps up its spending on new features.Zoom believes that some of those new features -- like Zoom Phone (for audio calls and text messages), Zoom IQ (for managing sales teams), and Zoom's Contact Center (for intra-office and customer service communications) -- will stabilize its long-term growth. However, that expansion could also fragment its ecosystem, dilute its brand, and force it to compete more aggressively against diversified cloud-based enterprise communications platforms like Microsoft Teams.What happened to RingCentral?RingCentral generated more stable growth than Zoom over the past two years because it primarily served businesses instead of mainstream customers. The pandemic forced businesses to continue relying on its cloud-based collaboration services, but it also temporary throttled its growth in new customers.As a result, RingCentral didn't experience a huge growth spurt or a slowdown during the pandemic. Instead, it grew at a steady pace -- and its growth accelerated after the pandemic ended and it started to lock in more businesses again.RingCentral's revenue rose 31% to $1.2 billion in 2020 and grew 35% to $1.6 billion in 2021. It expects its revenue to increase another 27% to 28% this year, even though it admitted that its larger customers were starting to exhibit more \"cautious buying behavior\" as they assessed the macro headwinds.RingCentral still isn't profitable on a GAAP basis. But on a non-GAAP basis, its earnings per share rose 20% in 2020, increased 37% in 2021, and it expects 43% to 46% growth this year. Like Zoom, RingCentral believes the secular shift toward remote and hybrid work will drive its long-term growth.However, the bears think that RingCentral will struggle as Zoom, Microsoft, and other companies gradually creep into its backyard with audio-only calls, cloud-based storage services, and other collaboration tools. Zoom also plans to stop licensing its technology to RingCentral for its videoconferencing services in the near future, and the imminent end of that partnership (which started in 2013) has forced RingCentral to build its own first-party videoconferencing platform. Those investments could squeeze its near-term margins.Which cloud stock is the better value?Zoom's stock trades at 21 times forward earnings, while RingCentral has a much lower forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14. That lower valuation, along with its more broadly diversified business and higher growth rates, make RingCentral a much better investment in the disruption of legacy enterprise communications services than Zoom, which has yet to prove that it can actually evolve into a more diversified cloud-based communications giant.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RNG":0.9,"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988137377,"gmtCreate":1666690415806,"gmtModify":1676537790401,"author":{"id":"4115455742852712","authorId":"4115455742852712","name":"jekok","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd8eef5e8647765552db7a9157795fd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115455742852712","idStr":"4115455742852712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988137377","repostId":"2277240299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2277240299","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1666685056,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2277240299?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Which Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2277240299","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Recession-proof stocks must offer something that makes investors want to buy them even when the economy is tanking.","content":"<div>\n<p>We won't officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-25 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We won't officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛","VRTX":"福泰制药","DG":"美国达乐公司","XLB":"材料ETF","JNJ":"强生","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","XLU":"公共事业指数ETF-SPDR","XLP":"消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2277240299","content_text":"We won't officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is probably on the way.For example, Johns Hopkins economics professor Steve Hanke stated a month ago that he believes there's at least an 80% chance of a recession. Non-profit research group The Conference Board recently pegged the probability at 96%. The latest Bloomberg economic model projects a 100% chance of a recession by October 2023.These forecasts don't guarantee that a recession is coming. But it's possible that the current bear market will continue for a while longer. That doesn't mean that every stock will be a big loser, though. Which stocks are most likely to thrive in a recession? Here's what history shows.Some bad newsThe SPDR Select Sector exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are good proxies for gauging how different sectors perform during recessions. One primary downside of using them is that most of these ETFs have only been around since the late 1990s. However, the U.S. has experienced three recessions during that period, so the SPDR Select Sector ETFs should be able to help in determining which stocks historically thrive in a recession.I've got some bad news, though. None of the SPDR Select Sector ETFs performed well in all three recessions that occurred over the past 25 years.The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund held up well during the recession of 2001. However, it still slid a little. The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF performed similarly during the first recession of this century. (The shaded area in the charts below indicates the period when the U.S. economy was in recession.)XLP data by YChartsHowever, both of these ETFs plunged during the Great Recession that began in late 2007 and went through mid-2009. So did every other sector ETF -- including (perhaps surprisingly) the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund.XLP data by YChartsAll of the sector ETFs also tanked during the brief coronavirus-fueled recession of 2020. However, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund didn't fall nearly as much as the others did.Looking for exceptionsThe cold, hard truth is that no category of stocks thrives in all recessions. But it's clear from examining the past that consumer staples stocks tend to perform better than most. Your best bet, though, is to look for exceptions. I'm referring to stocks that have factors working to their advantage so much that investors want to buy them even when the overall economy stinks.Johnson & Johnson stood out as this kind of stock during the recession of 2001. The healthcare giant continued to deliver revenue and earnings growth throughout the period. It completed the $10.5 billion acquisition of ALZA Corporation. The blue-chip stock was also viewed as a safe haven for investors worried about the dot-com bubble bursting.JNJ data by YChartsWalmart performed exceptionally well during the Great Recession, especially considering how most stocks plunged. Investors realized that the serious economic downturn would mean that consumers would have to tighten their purse strings. That worked to the advantage of the big discount retailer.WMT data by YChartsModerna's share price skyrocketed during the quick recession of 2020. That's not surprising. The company was one of the early leaders in developing coronavirus vaccines. Moderna was a natural choice for investors to flock to during the uncertain times at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.MRNA data by YChartsLikely outliers in the next recessionWhich stocks might be outliers in the next recession, assuming it isn't too far off? I think we can learn from history.Walmart could again defy gravity if the U.S. economy enters into a recession. My view is that another discount retailer, Dollar General, should do so as well.Dollar General is outperforming Walmart so far this year. The company continues to build new stores. It's also expanding its frozen and refrigerated goods offerings. Dollar General should benefit as consumers increasingly try to stretch their dollars.Just as Johnson & Johnson and Moderna performed well during two previous recessions, I suspect another drug stock will do so during the next recession -- Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Vertex's revenue and earnings will almost certainly grow robustly even amid an economic downturn.The big biotech also has a pipeline with multiple potential blockbusters likely on the way. Vertex expects to file for regulatory approvals for one of them (gene-editing therapy exa-cel) before year-end. With fears of a recession increasing, I think that Vertex is arguably the best stock to buy right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XLU":0.9,"DG":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"XLP":0.9,"VRTX":0.9,"XLB":0.9,"WMT":0.9,"JNJ":0.71}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911485763,"gmtCreate":1664244071652,"gmtModify":1676537417296,"author":{"id":"4115455742852712","authorId":"4115455742852712","name":"jekok","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd8eef5e8647765552db7a9157795fd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115455742852712","idStr":"4115455742852712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BWCU.SI\">$EC WORLD REIT(BWCU.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BWCU.SI\">$EC WORLD REIT(BWCU.SI)$</a>","text":"$EC WORLD REIT(BWCU.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/067c1b8afd83a1b66221aeccba30e076","width":"720","height":"1372"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911485763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913941087,"gmtCreate":1663900326749,"gmtModify":1676537359813,"author":{"id":"4115455742852712","authorId":"4115455742852712","name":"jekok","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd8eef5e8647765552db7a9157795fd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115455742852712","idStr":"4115455742852712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1bfd7df21dac697936f31d48aadccc8f","width":"720","height":"2182"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913941087","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919258496,"gmtCreate":1663810647116,"gmtModify":1676537340832,"author":{"id":"4115455742852712","authorId":"4115455742852712","name":"jekok","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd8eef5e8647765552db7a9157795fd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115455742852712","idStr":"4115455742852712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919258496","repostId":"1159773533","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159773533","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663809684,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159773533?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 09:21","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore’s Rising Costs of Running a Business Outpace Hong Kong","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159773533","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Singapore looks like an attractive location for firms wanting to exit Hong Kong, but they may find a","content":"<div>\n<p>Singapore looks like an attractive location for firms wanting to exit Hong Kong, but they may find a move to the city-state hits their bottom line more than expected.With inflation soaring to the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/singapore-s-rising-costs-of-running-a-business-outpace-hong-kong?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore’s Rising Costs of Running a Business Outpace Hong Kong</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore’s Rising Costs of Running a Business Outpace Hong Kong\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-22 09:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/singapore-s-rising-costs-of-running-a-business-outpace-hong-kong?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Singapore looks like an attractive location for firms wanting to exit Hong Kong, but they may find a move to the city-state hits their bottom line more than expected.With inflation soaring to the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/singapore-s-rising-costs-of-running-a-business-outpace-hong-kong?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/singapore-s-rising-costs-of-running-a-business-outpace-hong-kong?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159773533","content_text":"Singapore looks like an attractive location for firms wanting to exit Hong Kong, but they may find a move to the city-state hits their bottom line more than expected.With inflation soaring to the highest level in 14 years, expenses including the hiring of talent, office space and utilities are rising at a faster pace in Singapore than in its financial rival, where price increases have been more modest.Accelerating prices haven’t stopped the rate of new businessformation in the Southeast Asian city-state from reaching a 17-month high in August. In Hong Kong, the number of new local businesses has held roughly steady with 2021’s pace but is down from a peak in 2017.Here’s the outlook facing companies considering a relocation:Office RentsHong Kong is the most expensive office market in the world, but unpredictable virus guidelines and political uncertainty has plagued its economy, forcing landlords to cut office rents in core business districts through June by 4% from December. In contrast, the cost of rent in Singapore’s central business area accelerated for a third quarter, continuing its upward momentum.Singapore’s rental costs still remain well below Hong Kong’s, and even Beijing’s, according to a report by real estate investing firm JLL Singapore, but the gap is narrowing.Covid Rules and Labor SupplySingapore has scrapped the majority of its Covid-19 restrictions, including mask wearing in most places, taking strides towards normalcy and a full reopening to the world with the aim of luring more white-collar talent. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is playing catch-up, finally moving toward the elimination of mandatory hotel quarantine for inbound travelers after requiring 21 days.As a result of earlier quarantine clampdowns, labor tightness has been an issue for both hubs. Singapore’s ratio of job vacancies to those unemployed reached a historic high in the second quarter. That resulted in salaries for new job offers rising faster than those in Hong Kong in many key sectors last year.“Singapore’s faster reopening and ‘living with Covid’ versus Hong Kong’s ‘zero Covid’ strategy is driving the divergence and higher increase in manpower and rental costs,” said Chua Hak Bin, an economist at Maybank Investment Banking Group.Numbers aren’t available yet for this year, but pay increases for civil servants, which can have a knock-on effect to the private sector, have shown some notable differences. Singapore’s civil servants are expecting a pay raise ranging from 5% to 14% this year, while Hong Kong proposed a 2.5% boost.Electricity and Other CostsHong Kong regulates its two electricity providers, but it isn’t immune to the energy price increases that swept the globe following the war in Ukraine. The North Asia financial hub’s electricity prices jumped in 2021 before settling down this year, only to be outpaced by Singapore, which saw its latest electricity inflation rate rising to the highest on record.For now, Singapore’s faster inflation isn’t a major drag.“Higher manpower and rents may slow business formation but will probably not derail the rising trend,” said Maybank’s Chua.For firms thinking of a move, or starting from scratch, a key question is how long these trends will continue. Is Singapore at the start of a boom cycle that will see costs out pace Hong Kong for years, or will Hong Kong’s prices pick up pace now that the city is starting to move past the toughest of its Covid-era restrictions.Until that becomes clearer, other structural factors may prove decisive for companies trying to make a decision now. Those include the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, Hong Kong’s national security laws and the diversification of supply chains towards ASEAN countries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919258224,"gmtCreate":1663810636569,"gmtModify":1676537340824,"author":{"id":"4115455742852712","authorId":"4115455742852712","name":"jekok","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd8eef5e8647765552db7a9157795fd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115455742852712","idStr":"4115455742852712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919258224","repostId":"2269163612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269163612","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663810278,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269163612?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Upstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269163612","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIn 2022, Upstart's lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding par","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>In 2022, Upstart&#39;s lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding partners turn risk averse homogeneously due to fears of a potential economic recession.</li><li>Despite this volume contraction, Upstart is still operating at breakeven to positive free cash flow, adding new credit union partners to its lending marketplace, and expanding its auto dealership footprint.</li><li>With interest rates climbing higher and inflation staying elevated, Upstart&#39;s credit performance is likely to get worse, which in turn could keep its marketplace - funding constrained - for longer.</li><li>As I see it, Upstart&#39;s lending volumes will likely continue to contract further in H2 2022 and probably into 2023 or at least until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program).</li><li>Considering the risk/reward, I continue to like UPST stock as a long-term buy at ~$24 (with an insurance policy, i.e., options-based hedging strategy).</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaf3098269a8edf09402ae666fbffbc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"714\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>DNY59</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>As an Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) investor, I&#39;m rooting for the good, preparing for the bad, and positioning for the ugly.</p><p><b>The Good:</b> Upstart is suffering a violent contraction in lending volumes due to a rapidly deteriorating credit market. However, whenwe look under the hood, the company is still adding new partners to its AI-powered lending marketplace and expanding its presence among auto dealerships.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f069eda742677379019a565439303b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"454\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Upstart Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><b>Recently announced lending partnerships:</b></p><ul><li>Vantage West Credit Union Partners with Upstart to Offer a More Streamlined, Digital-first Borrowing Experience[8th September 2022]</li><li>Alliant Credit Union Selects Upstart for a Personal Lending Fintech Partnership[17th August 2022]</li></ul><p>Even during this uncertain macroeconomic environment, Upstart adding more partners to its marketplace is setting up the company for a brighter future. When the credit cycle turns (and it will turn at some point [hopefully, in 2023]), Upstart&#39;s business is likely to come back stronger than ever (if its credit performance holds up well).</p><p>In the meantime, Upstart&#39;s robust unit economics and low fixed cost structures are set to enable the business to remain free cash flow positive during this down cycle. With $800M of cash on its balance sheet, Upstart has enough firepower to survive through these tumultuous macroeconomic conditions.</p><p><b>The Bad:</b> Upstart&#39;s lending marketplace is funding constrained, and according to recent commentary from the company&#39;s C-suite, Upstart&#39;s funding partners are still being risk averse (homogeneously), and no progress has been made on securing committed funding for their marketplace (plans announced in Q2 earnings call). In fact, the management admitted during recent conferences that the committed funding plan is something for the next downturn in debt markets.</p><h2>Links to recent conferences held in mid-September:</h2><ul><li>Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference: Fireside Chat with Dave Girouard</li><li>Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, Fireside Chat with Sanjay Datta</li></ul><p>With funding partners and institutional investors bailing on Upstart, its volumes could remain in free fall until the credit cycle turns (and that&#39;s likely not happening until the Fed pivots).</p><p><b>The Ugly:</b> In my analysis of Upstart&#39;s Q2 results, I highlighted the fact that its credit performance data for 2021 cohorts was unimpressive. And recent data from KBRA shows that many of Upstart&#39;s ABS securitization trusts have recently suffered (or are set to suffer) trigger breaches [Current Cumulative Net Defaults [CND] &gt; Expected CND].</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b452ffdaf273481a101a268cfd880746\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>KBRA news release</span></p><p>Upstart&#39;s AI has never been tested in a recessionary environment, and if its credit performance fails to match or outperform FICO-based loans, institutional investors and funding partners may pull back permanently from Upstart&#39;s marketplace. In such a scenario, Upstart will not be able to scale due to the limitations of its balance sheet. The company&#39;s long-term future will then be as a financial lending institution, similar to LendingClub (LC) or SoFi (SOFI). Again, this doesn&#39;t mean Upstart would be a bad business; it would just be a very different business than what Upstart&#39;s management has set out to build. The valuation would look a lot different too, but more on that later.</p><p>In the first half of Q3, Upstart&#39;s business would have gotten some relief as interest moderated somewhat; however, the second half of Q3 saw surging interest rates, as shown in the chart below. As of writing, the 2-yr treasury yield is inching towards 4%, and the 10-yr treasury yield is ~3.6%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457e76fc6bc799e48cd4ce92fcb2f834\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>US Treasury Yields (YCharts)</span></p><p>Inflation readings are coming in hot despite consumer sentiment being down in the dumps, and the yield curve inversion is pointing towards a potential recession. Honestly, I think that Upstart&#39;s credit performance data is set to get worse over coming quarters as it would for almost all lending institutions amid an unprecedented quantitative tightening from central banks across the globe.</p><p>If Upstart&#39;s credit performance is better than peers during the next few quarters, we will see a sharp recovery in its marketplace lending volumes once the credit cycle turns. However, if Upstart&#39;s relative performance is not better than peers, we may be left with a slow to no growth, digital-lending fintech business (with no bank charter [i.e., high-cost structure]). Upstart&#39;s management has presented data that shows its AI&#39;s superior risk separation capabilities, and the next few quarters will determine if this data is reliable.</p><p>Another concerning data point I have come across is Upstart&#39;s website traffic. While total traffic grew by 12% y/y in August, Desktop views tanked by ~35%. Rising interest rates are set to lower the demand for loans and impact Upstart&#39;s conversion rates (as seen in Q2). As a result, Upstart&#39;s lending activity may continue to contract for the foreseeable future.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1064ae071dc533e56528acea4319f76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TipRanks</span></p><p>With all of this information in mind, let&#39;s re-evaluate Upstart&#39;s intrinsic value and expected returns.</p><h2>Upstart&#39;s Fair Value And Expected Returns</h2><p>To find the fair value and expected return of Upstart, we will use TQI&#39;s Valuation model:</p><p>After internalizing Upstart&#39;s Q3 revenue guidance, recent management commentary at conferences, interest rate trajectory, and website traffic data, I am cutting my revenue forecast for 2022 from $900M to $800M. All the remaining assumptions are held constant from my previous analysis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34e00979cf8405a61280f88ade843ee7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"550\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a38135fb367604a520be83adbdf4d8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TQI Valuation Model (tqig.org)</span></p><p>In accordance with these results, I am cutting my fair value estimate for Upstart from ~$58 to ~$47 per share and reducing my 5-yr price target to $171 per share. Since these expected returns are well above my required IRR of 25% for high-risk, moonshot growth bets like Upstart, I continue to rate Upstart a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; for long-term investors.</p><h2>My Positioning For UPST</h2><p>As I said at the start of this article, I am positioning for the ugly; however, before we see how that looks, let&#39;s go over some history.</p><p>So, as you may know, Upstart has been a part of my portfolio since early 2021, and I have added to my long position on several occasions through my monthly capital allocation plans. After factoring in all my purchases, I owned Upstart at a cost basis of $78 in May 2022. My investment thesis and hedging strategy (expired in August 2022) can be found here:</p><ul><li>Upstart: An Opportunity Of A Lifetime Or A Tragic Mistake?[Investment Thesis, Positioning, and Valuation - 18th July 2022]</li></ul><p>On earnings day, I shared a preview note and suggested a short squeeze in Upstart on potentially better-than-feared guidance for Q3.</p><ul><li>Upstart Q2 Preview: Short-Sellers Should Brace For Impact[Q2 Earnings Preview - 8th August 2022]</li></ul><p>While actual guidance came in worse than my bear case projections, the stock still squeezed higher. However, the horror of the Q3 guide and yet another business model pivot led me to suggest profit-booking.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e0dd2dac1872e66edebb88efa4f1201\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"140\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author&#39;s note</span></p><p>And here&#39;s what I wrote in my detailed review of Upstart&#39;s Q2 earnings report:</p><blockquote>After a strong rally going into Q2 earnings, Upstart&#39;s stock squeezed up to $37.50; however, we have seen a sharp retracement in the stock over the last three trading sessions. On Upstart&#39;s earnings day [8th August], I issued a buy rating on the stock at $29 per share, and while the stock is now trading below this level, I want to congratulate those who took profits on the post-ER rally.</blockquote><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04c5ed5e73694adbda5ec606c8be0d91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author&#39;s Note</span></p></blockquote><blockquote><i><b>As we know, Upstart&#39;s financial numbers are heading in the wrong direction, and the company is undergoing a business model transition. With turmoil in debt markets unlikely to end in the near term, the stock could remain volatile over the coming months. Upstart has hit turbulence, the seat belt sign is on, and all trading bets are off.</b></i></blockquote><blockquote>From a long-term perspective, I continue to remain bullish on Upstart. The business is still operating at breakeven FCF with robust unit economics. With ~$800M in cash, Upstart&#39;s liquidity position is strong enough to get through this downturn in the debt markets. Once debt markets normalize, Upstart could emerge as a big beneficiary since its credit underwriting will have been war tested (i.e., proven). Personally, I have been proactively managing risk in Upstart through option-based hedging strategies; and I will continue to do so for the next couple of quarters.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: Upstart: The Seat Belt Sign Is On [Q2 Earnings &amp; Q3 Guidance Review - 22nd August 2022]</blockquote><p>On the expiry of my previous hedge (19th August 2022), I exercised my $48 Puts and bought back an equivalent number of shares over the last two weeks of August (at ~$25.6 per share). While I had the opportunity to double my position (by number of shares) in Upstart [effectively cutting my cost basis to $39 per share], I kept the excess cash to deploy into Opendoor (OPEN), Hims &amp; Hers (HIMS), and Roku (ROKU). The reason for doing so was management&#39;s flip-flop on Upstart&#39;s use of the balance sheet as a bridge for loans, concerns around credit performance, and shrinking lending activity. Now, in effect, I ended up reducing my portfolio exposure to Upstart by half (it is still a double-digit portfolio weight for me). My effective cost basis for Upstart is now ~$55.5 (previously, it was $78), and I think the last hedge worked out very well.</p><p>With interest rates climbing higher and the Fed steaming forward with its quantitative tightening program, Upstart&#39;s lending volumes may contract further in coming quarters. While I am happy with the progress Upstart is making on expanding its marketplace through the addition of partners and extension into other loan categories, the near to medium term business outlook for Upstart looks bleak.</p><p>Upstart has ample cash to survive this debt cycle downturn; however, as Upstart&#39;s balance sheet risk increases with more loans showing up on the books, the market may choose to price it like a traditional lender. And I have outlined in my previous research notes that such a valuation (1-1.5x book value) would put Upstart&#39;s market cap at around ~$0.8-1.2B. This figure is half of where Upstart is trading right now, and I am preparing for this sort of ugly scenario with my new hedging strategy.</p><p>For every 100 shares of Upstart, I bought 1 $25 Put, sold 1 $40 Call, and sold 2 $12.5 Puts. This hedging strategy cost me absolutely nothing (in fact, it yielded 3 cents a share); however, it limits my upside to +56% [$40], provides downside protection up to -50% [$12.5], and obligates me to double my position (by number of shares) at $12.5 per share if the share is trading below this level at expiry.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746debcc7bfd52c08fe4c60f6c01975d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"119\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Managed Risk Portfolio (The Quantamental Investor)</span></p><p>Since I can exercise the $25 Put to fulfill this obligation, I am effectively gifting myself the ability to significantly reduce my cost in the event of a meltdown in Upstart&#39;s stock. Under $12.5, I will start losing more money, but I am willing to take this risk as I still believe in the mission and vision of Upstart, and there&#39;s a good chance this business will bounce back stronger in a new credit cycle.</p><p>The hedging strategy showcased above is implemented within &#34;TQI&#39;s Managed Risk Portfolio&#34;, which is a collection of tactical positions on some of TQI&#39;s highest conviction investment ideas, designed to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns over the next 12 months. In a vicious bear market, TQI&#39;s Managed Risk Portfolio is our way of swinging for the fences with insurance policies limiting our downside risks.</p><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><p>As a long-term investor, I continue to believe in Upstart&#39;s vision of transforming the credit industry with artificial intelligence, and I truly hope that Upstart can succeed where predecessors like LendingClub have failed. Nothing is guaranteed in investing, but Upstart is one of those generational bets that can end up disrupting a multi-trillion-dollar industry.</p><p>While Upstart is facing several headwinds, the company has enough liquidity ($800M in cash) to get through this debt cycle downturn. The fact that Upstart is not burning cash (operating near FCF breakeven) helps. If Upstart&#39;s AI proves its ability to price credit risk better than traditional FICO-based models, we can expect explosive volume growth at Upstart over the next few years. However, investors may need to wait patiently for the credit markets to unfreeze, which may not happen until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program). And in this period, Upstart&#39;s management is likely to be forced into raising balance sheet risk to support lending volumes.</p><p>Marketplace funding constraints and the risk of Upstart being left holding a big bag of bad loans are sending shockwaves into Upstart&#39;s investor base that was primarily betting on a marketplace business with massive scalability and no balance sheet risk. With the financial performance set to get worse amid rising balance sheet risk, Upstart&#39;s stock may suffer more pain in the near term.</p><p>Considering the asymmetric risk/reward on offer, I continue to like Upstart as a long-term buy at ~$24. However, I am taking this high-risk, high-reward bet with an insurance policy, i.e., an options-based hedging strategy. Since early May, I have been hedged on most of my portfolio in a similar vein to Upstart, and this proactive risk management has enabled me to protect my wealth, increase holdings in my highest conviction ideas with little to no additional capital, and sleep well at night during this vicious bear market of 2022.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Upstart a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; for long-term investors at $24.</p><p>Thanks for reading, and happy investing. Please let me know if you have any thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below or send me a direct message on SA.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Upstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUpstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-22 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542140-upstart-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn 2022, Upstart's lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding partners turn risk averse homogeneously due to fears of a potential economic recession.Despite this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542140-upstart-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542140-upstart-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269163612","content_text":"SummaryIn 2022, Upstart's lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding partners turn risk averse homogeneously due to fears of a potential economic recession.Despite this volume contraction, Upstart is still operating at breakeven to positive free cash flow, adding new credit union partners to its lending marketplace, and expanding its auto dealership footprint.With interest rates climbing higher and inflation staying elevated, Upstart's credit performance is likely to get worse, which in turn could keep its marketplace - funding constrained - for longer.As I see it, Upstart's lending volumes will likely continue to contract further in H2 2022 and probably into 2023 or at least until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program).Considering the risk/reward, I continue to like UPST stock as a long-term buy at ~$24 (with an insurance policy, i.e., options-based hedging strategy).DNY59IntroductionAs an Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) investor, I'm rooting for the good, preparing for the bad, and positioning for the ugly.The Good: Upstart is suffering a violent contraction in lending volumes due to a rapidly deteriorating credit market. However, whenwe look under the hood, the company is still adding new partners to its AI-powered lending marketplace and expanding its presence among auto dealerships.Upstart Q2 Earnings PresentationRecently announced lending partnerships:Vantage West Credit Union Partners with Upstart to Offer a More Streamlined, Digital-first Borrowing Experience[8th September 2022]Alliant Credit Union Selects Upstart for a Personal Lending Fintech Partnership[17th August 2022]Even during this uncertain macroeconomic environment, Upstart adding more partners to its marketplace is setting up the company for a brighter future. When the credit cycle turns (and it will turn at some point [hopefully, in 2023]), Upstart's business is likely to come back stronger than ever (if its credit performance holds up well).In the meantime, Upstart's robust unit economics and low fixed cost structures are set to enable the business to remain free cash flow positive during this down cycle. With $800M of cash on its balance sheet, Upstart has enough firepower to survive through these tumultuous macroeconomic conditions.The Bad: Upstart's lending marketplace is funding constrained, and according to recent commentary from the company's C-suite, Upstart's funding partners are still being risk averse (homogeneously), and no progress has been made on securing committed funding for their marketplace (plans announced in Q2 earnings call). In fact, the management admitted during recent conferences that the committed funding plan is something for the next downturn in debt markets.Links to recent conferences held in mid-September:Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference: Fireside Chat with Dave GirouardPiper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, Fireside Chat with Sanjay DattaWith funding partners and institutional investors bailing on Upstart, its volumes could remain in free fall until the credit cycle turns (and that's likely not happening until the Fed pivots).The Ugly: In my analysis of Upstart's Q2 results, I highlighted the fact that its credit performance data for 2021 cohorts was unimpressive. And recent data from KBRA shows that many of Upstart's ABS securitization trusts have recently suffered (or are set to suffer) trigger breaches [Current Cumulative Net Defaults [CND] > Expected CND].KBRA news releaseUpstart's AI has never been tested in a recessionary environment, and if its credit performance fails to match or outperform FICO-based loans, institutional investors and funding partners may pull back permanently from Upstart's marketplace. In such a scenario, Upstart will not be able to scale due to the limitations of its balance sheet. The company's long-term future will then be as a financial lending institution, similar to LendingClub (LC) or SoFi (SOFI). Again, this doesn't mean Upstart would be a bad business; it would just be a very different business than what Upstart's management has set out to build. The valuation would look a lot different too, but more on that later.In the first half of Q3, Upstart's business would have gotten some relief as interest moderated somewhat; however, the second half of Q3 saw surging interest rates, as shown in the chart below. As of writing, the 2-yr treasury yield is inching towards 4%, and the 10-yr treasury yield is ~3.6%.US Treasury Yields (YCharts)Inflation readings are coming in hot despite consumer sentiment being down in the dumps, and the yield curve inversion is pointing towards a potential recession. Honestly, I think that Upstart's credit performance data is set to get worse over coming quarters as it would for almost all lending institutions amid an unprecedented quantitative tightening from central banks across the globe.If Upstart's credit performance is better than peers during the next few quarters, we will see a sharp recovery in its marketplace lending volumes once the credit cycle turns. However, if Upstart's relative performance is not better than peers, we may be left with a slow to no growth, digital-lending fintech business (with no bank charter [i.e., high-cost structure]). Upstart's management has presented data that shows its AI's superior risk separation capabilities, and the next few quarters will determine if this data is reliable.Another concerning data point I have come across is Upstart's website traffic. While total traffic grew by 12% y/y in August, Desktop views tanked by ~35%. Rising interest rates are set to lower the demand for loans and impact Upstart's conversion rates (as seen in Q2). As a result, Upstart's lending activity may continue to contract for the foreseeable future.TipRanksWith all of this information in mind, let's re-evaluate Upstart's intrinsic value and expected returns.Upstart's Fair Value And Expected ReturnsTo find the fair value and expected return of Upstart, we will use TQI's Valuation model:After internalizing Upstart's Q3 revenue guidance, recent management commentary at conferences, interest rate trajectory, and website traffic data, I am cutting my revenue forecast for 2022 from $900M to $800M. All the remaining assumptions are held constant from my previous analysis.TQI Valuation Model (tqig.org)In accordance with these results, I am cutting my fair value estimate for Upstart from ~$58 to ~$47 per share and reducing my 5-yr price target to $171 per share. Since these expected returns are well above my required IRR of 25% for high-risk, moonshot growth bets like Upstart, I continue to rate Upstart a 'Strong Buy' for long-term investors.My Positioning For UPSTAs I said at the start of this article, I am positioning for the ugly; however, before we see how that looks, let's go over some history.So, as you may know, Upstart has been a part of my portfolio since early 2021, and I have added to my long position on several occasions through my monthly capital allocation plans. After factoring in all my purchases, I owned Upstart at a cost basis of $78 in May 2022. My investment thesis and hedging strategy (expired in August 2022) can be found here:Upstart: An Opportunity Of A Lifetime Or A Tragic Mistake?[Investment Thesis, Positioning, and Valuation - 18th July 2022]On earnings day, I shared a preview note and suggested a short squeeze in Upstart on potentially better-than-feared guidance for Q3.Upstart Q2 Preview: Short-Sellers Should Brace For Impact[Q2 Earnings Preview - 8th August 2022]While actual guidance came in worse than my bear case projections, the stock still squeezed higher. However, the horror of the Q3 guide and yet another business model pivot led me to suggest profit-booking.Author's noteAnd here's what I wrote in my detailed review of Upstart's Q2 earnings report:After a strong rally going into Q2 earnings, Upstart's stock squeezed up to $37.50; however, we have seen a sharp retracement in the stock over the last three trading sessions. On Upstart's earnings day [8th August], I issued a buy rating on the stock at $29 per share, and while the stock is now trading below this level, I want to congratulate those who took profits on the post-ER rally.Author's NoteAs we know, Upstart's financial numbers are heading in the wrong direction, and the company is undergoing a business model transition. With turmoil in debt markets unlikely to end in the near term, the stock could remain volatile over the coming months. Upstart has hit turbulence, the seat belt sign is on, and all trading bets are off.From a long-term perspective, I continue to remain bullish on Upstart. The business is still operating at breakeven FCF with robust unit economics. With ~$800M in cash, Upstart's liquidity position is strong enough to get through this downturn in the debt markets. Once debt markets normalize, Upstart could emerge as a big beneficiary since its credit underwriting will have been war tested (i.e., proven). Personally, I have been proactively managing risk in Upstart through option-based hedging strategies; and I will continue to do so for the next couple of quarters.Source: Upstart: The Seat Belt Sign Is On [Q2 Earnings & Q3 Guidance Review - 22nd August 2022]On the expiry of my previous hedge (19th August 2022), I exercised my $48 Puts and bought back an equivalent number of shares over the last two weeks of August (at ~$25.6 per share). While I had the opportunity to double my position (by number of shares) in Upstart [effectively cutting my cost basis to $39 per share], I kept the excess cash to deploy into Opendoor (OPEN), Hims & Hers (HIMS), and Roku (ROKU). The reason for doing so was management's flip-flop on Upstart's use of the balance sheet as a bridge for loans, concerns around credit performance, and shrinking lending activity. Now, in effect, I ended up reducing my portfolio exposure to Upstart by half (it is still a double-digit portfolio weight for me). My effective cost basis for Upstart is now ~$55.5 (previously, it was $78), and I think the last hedge worked out very well.With interest rates climbing higher and the Fed steaming forward with its quantitative tightening program, Upstart's lending volumes may contract further in coming quarters. While I am happy with the progress Upstart is making on expanding its marketplace through the addition of partners and extension into other loan categories, the near to medium term business outlook for Upstart looks bleak.Upstart has ample cash to survive this debt cycle downturn; however, as Upstart's balance sheet risk increases with more loans showing up on the books, the market may choose to price it like a traditional lender. And I have outlined in my previous research notes that such a valuation (1-1.5x book value) would put Upstart's market cap at around ~$0.8-1.2B. This figure is half of where Upstart is trading right now, and I am preparing for this sort of ugly scenario with my new hedging strategy.For every 100 shares of Upstart, I bought 1 $25 Put, sold 1 $40 Call, and sold 2 $12.5 Puts. This hedging strategy cost me absolutely nothing (in fact, it yielded 3 cents a share); however, it limits my upside to +56% [$40], provides downside protection up to -50% [$12.5], and obligates me to double my position (by number of shares) at $12.5 per share if the share is trading below this level at expiry.Managed Risk Portfolio (The Quantamental Investor)Since I can exercise the $25 Put to fulfill this obligation, I am effectively gifting myself the ability to significantly reduce my cost in the event of a meltdown in Upstart's stock. Under $12.5, I will start losing more money, but I am willing to take this risk as I still believe in the mission and vision of Upstart, and there's a good chance this business will bounce back stronger in a new credit cycle.The hedging strategy showcased above is implemented within \"TQI's Managed Risk Portfolio\", which is a collection of tactical positions on some of TQI's highest conviction investment ideas, designed to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns over the next 12 months. In a vicious bear market, TQI's Managed Risk Portfolio is our way of swinging for the fences with insurance policies limiting our downside risks.Final ThoughtsAs a long-term investor, I continue to believe in Upstart's vision of transforming the credit industry with artificial intelligence, and I truly hope that Upstart can succeed where predecessors like LendingClub have failed. Nothing is guaranteed in investing, but Upstart is one of those generational bets that can end up disrupting a multi-trillion-dollar industry.While Upstart is facing several headwinds, the company has enough liquidity ($800M in cash) to get through this debt cycle downturn. The fact that Upstart is not burning cash (operating near FCF breakeven) helps. If Upstart's AI proves its ability to price credit risk better than traditional FICO-based models, we can expect explosive volume growth at Upstart over the next few years. However, investors may need to wait patiently for the credit markets to unfreeze, which may not happen until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program). And in this period, Upstart's management is likely to be forced into raising balance sheet risk to support lending volumes.Marketplace funding constraints and the risk of Upstart being left holding a big bag of bad loans are sending shockwaves into Upstart's investor base that was primarily betting on a marketplace business with massive scalability and no balance sheet risk. With the financial performance set to get worse amid rising balance sheet risk, Upstart's stock may suffer more pain in the near term.Considering the asymmetric risk/reward on offer, I continue to like Upstart as a long-term buy at ~$24. However, I am taking this high-risk, high-reward bet with an insurance policy, i.e., an options-based hedging strategy. Since early May, I have been hedged on most of my portfolio in a similar vein to Upstart, and this proactive risk management has enabled me to protect my wealth, increase holdings in my highest conviction ideas with little to no additional capital, and sleep well at night during this vicious bear market of 2022.Key Takeaway: I rate Upstart a 'Strong Buy' for long-term investors at $24.Thanks for reading, and happy investing. Please let me know if you have any thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below or send me a direct message on SA.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UPST":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919258871,"gmtCreate":1663810627794,"gmtModify":1676537340824,"author":{"id":"4115455742852712","authorId":"4115455742852712","name":"jekok","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd8eef5e8647765552db7a9157795fd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115455742852712","idStr":"4115455742852712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919258871","repostId":"1161572204","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161572204","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1663800201,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161572204?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 06:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Delivers Another Big Rate Hike; Powell Vows to \"Keep at It\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161572204","media":"Reuters","summary":"Fed lifts target interest rate to 3.00%-3.25% rangeForecasts show another large hike likely by end o","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Fed lifts target interest rate to 3.00%-3.25% range</li><li>Forecasts show another large hike likely by end of year</li><li>Powell: No &#39;painless&#39; way to bring down inflation</li></ul><p>WASHINGTON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed on Wednesday that he and his fellow policymakers would &#34;keep at&#34; their battle to beat down inflation, as the U.S. central bank hiked interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for a third straight time and signaled that borrowing costs would keep rising this year.</p><p>In a sobering new set of projections, the Fed foresees its policy rate rising at a faster pace and to a higher level than expected, the economy slowing to a crawl, and unemployment rising to a degree historically associated with recessions.</p><p>Powell was blunt about the &#34;pain&#34; to come, citing rising joblessness and singling out the housing market, a persistent source of rising consumer inflation, as being likely in need of a &#34;correction.&#34;</p><p>Earlier on Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors reported that U.S. existing home sales dropped for a seventh straight month in August.</p><p>The United States has had a &#34;red hot housing market ... There was a big imbalance,&#34; Powell said in a news conference after Fed policymakers unanimously agreed to raise the central bank&#39;s benchmark overnight interest rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25%. &#34;What we need is supply and demand to get better aligned ... We probably in the housing market have to go through a correction to get back to that place.&#34;</p><p>That theme, of a continuing mismatch between U.S. demand for goods and services and the ability of the country to produce or import them, ran through a briefing in which Powell stuck with the hawkish tone set during his remarks last month at the Jackson Hole central banking conference in Wyoming.</p><p>Recent inflation data has shown little to no improvement despite the Fed&#39;s aggressive tightening - it also announced 75-basis-point rate hikes in June and July - and the labor market remains robust with wages increasing as well.</p><p>The federal funds rate projected for the end of this year signals another 1.25 percentage points in rate hikes to come in the Fed&#39;s two remaining policy meetings in 2022, a level that implies another 75-basis-point increase in the offing.</p><p>&#34;The committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective,&#34; the central bank&#39;s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in its policy statement after the end of a two-day policy meeting.</p><p>The Fed &#34;anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.&#34;</p><p><b>GROWTH SLOWDOWN</b></p><p>The Fed&#39;s target policy rate is now at its highest level since 2008 - and new projections show it rising to the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of this year and ending 2023 at 4.50%-4.75%.</p><p>Powell said the indicated path of rates showed the Fed was &#34;strongly resolved&#34; to bring down inflation from the highest levels in four decades and that officials would &#34;keep at it until the job is done&#34; even at the risk of unemployment rising and growth slowing to a stall.</p><p>&#34;We have got to get inflation behind us,&#34; Powell told reporters. &#34;I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn&#39;t.&#34;</p><p>Inflation by the Fed&#39;s preferred measure has been running at more than three times the central bank&#39;s target. The new projections put it on a slow path back to 2% in 2025, an extended Fed battle to quell the highest bout of inflation since the 1980s, and one that potentially pushes the economy to the borderline of a recession.</p><p>The Fed said that &#34;recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production,&#34; but the new projections put year-end economic growth for 2022 at 0.2%, rising to 1.2% in 2023, well below the economy&#39;s potential. The unemployment rate, currently at 3.7%, is projected to rise to 3.8% this year and to 4.4% in 2023. That would be above the half-percentage-point rise in unemployment that has been associated with past recessions.</p><p>&#34;The Fed was late to recognize inflation, late to start raising interest rates, and late to start unwinding bond purchases. They&#39;ve been playing catch-up ever since. And they&#39;re not done yet,&#34; said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.</p><p>U.S. stocks, already mired in a bear market over concerns about the Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening, ended the day sharply lower, with the S&amp;P 500 index skidding 1.7%.</p><p>In the U.S. Treasury market, which plays a key role in the transmission of Fed policy decisions into the real economy, yields on the 2-year note vaulted over the 4% mark, their highest levels since 2007.</p><p>The dollar hit a fresh two-decade high against a basket of currencies, gaining more than 1%. The U.S. currency&#39;s strength - it has appreciated by more than 16% on a year-to-date basis - has stoked concern at central banks around the world about potential exchange rate and other financial shocks.</p><p>Some are not even trying to match the Fed&#39;s blistering pace of tightening, with the Bank of Japan on Thursday expected to hold fast to its ultra-easy policy and keep its policy rate at minus 0.1%, likely leaving it as the last major monetary policy authority in the world with a negative policy rate.</p><p>Others are making an effort to stay somewhat abreast of the Fed. The Bank of England, for example, is expected to lift its policy rate by at least half a percentage point on Thursday.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Delivers Another Big Rate Hike; Powell Vows to \"Keep at It\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Delivers Another Big Rate Hike; Powell Vows to \"Keep at It\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-22 06:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Fed lifts target interest rate to 3.00%-3.25% range</li><li>Forecasts show another large hike likely by end of year</li><li>Powell: No &#39;painless&#39; way to bring down inflation</li></ul><p>WASHINGTON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed on Wednesday that he and his fellow policymakers would &#34;keep at&#34; their battle to beat down inflation, as the U.S. central bank hiked interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for a third straight time and signaled that borrowing costs would keep rising this year.</p><p>In a sobering new set of projections, the Fed foresees its policy rate rising at a faster pace and to a higher level than expected, the economy slowing to a crawl, and unemployment rising to a degree historically associated with recessions.</p><p>Powell was blunt about the &#34;pain&#34; to come, citing rising joblessness and singling out the housing market, a persistent source of rising consumer inflation, as being likely in need of a &#34;correction.&#34;</p><p>Earlier on Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors reported that U.S. existing home sales dropped for a seventh straight month in August.</p><p>The United States has had a &#34;red hot housing market ... There was a big imbalance,&#34; Powell said in a news conference after Fed policymakers unanimously agreed to raise the central bank&#39;s benchmark overnight interest rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25%. &#34;What we need is supply and demand to get better aligned ... We probably in the housing market have to go through a correction to get back to that place.&#34;</p><p>That theme, of a continuing mismatch between U.S. demand for goods and services and the ability of the country to produce or import them, ran through a briefing in which Powell stuck with the hawkish tone set during his remarks last month at the Jackson Hole central banking conference in Wyoming.</p><p>Recent inflation data has shown little to no improvement despite the Fed&#39;s aggressive tightening - it also announced 75-basis-point rate hikes in June and July - and the labor market remains robust with wages increasing as well.</p><p>The federal funds rate projected for the end of this year signals another 1.25 percentage points in rate hikes to come in the Fed&#39;s two remaining policy meetings in 2022, a level that implies another 75-basis-point increase in the offing.</p><p>&#34;The committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective,&#34; the central bank&#39;s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in its policy statement after the end of a two-day policy meeting.</p><p>The Fed &#34;anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.&#34;</p><p><b>GROWTH SLOWDOWN</b></p><p>The Fed&#39;s target policy rate is now at its highest level since 2008 - and new projections show it rising to the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of this year and ending 2023 at 4.50%-4.75%.</p><p>Powell said the indicated path of rates showed the Fed was &#34;strongly resolved&#34; to bring down inflation from the highest levels in four decades and that officials would &#34;keep at it until the job is done&#34; even at the risk of unemployment rising and growth slowing to a stall.</p><p>&#34;We have got to get inflation behind us,&#34; Powell told reporters. &#34;I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn&#39;t.&#34;</p><p>Inflation by the Fed&#39;s preferred measure has been running at more than three times the central bank&#39;s target. The new projections put it on a slow path back to 2% in 2025, an extended Fed battle to quell the highest bout of inflation since the 1980s, and one that potentially pushes the economy to the borderline of a recession.</p><p>The Fed said that &#34;recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production,&#34; but the new projections put year-end economic growth for 2022 at 0.2%, rising to 1.2% in 2023, well below the economy&#39;s potential. The unemployment rate, currently at 3.7%, is projected to rise to 3.8% this year and to 4.4% in 2023. That would be above the half-percentage-point rise in unemployment that has been associated with past recessions.</p><p>&#34;The Fed was late to recognize inflation, late to start raising interest rates, and late to start unwinding bond purchases. They&#39;ve been playing catch-up ever since. And they&#39;re not done yet,&#34; said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.</p><p>U.S. stocks, already mired in a bear market over concerns about the Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening, ended the day sharply lower, with the S&amp;P 500 index skidding 1.7%.</p><p>In the U.S. Treasury market, which plays a key role in the transmission of Fed policy decisions into the real economy, yields on the 2-year note vaulted over the 4% mark, their highest levels since 2007.</p><p>The dollar hit a fresh two-decade high against a basket of currencies, gaining more than 1%. The U.S. currency&#39;s strength - it has appreciated by more than 16% on a year-to-date basis - has stoked concern at central banks around the world about potential exchange rate and other financial shocks.</p><p>Some are not even trying to match the Fed&#39;s blistering pace of tightening, with the Bank of Japan on Thursday expected to hold fast to its ultra-easy policy and keep its policy rate at minus 0.1%, likely leaving it as the last major monetary policy authority in the world with a negative policy rate.</p><p>Others are making an effort to stay somewhat abreast of the Fed. The Bank of England, for example, is expected to lift its policy rate by at least half a percentage point on Thursday.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161572204","content_text":"Fed lifts target interest rate to 3.00%-3.25% rangeForecasts show another large hike likely by end of yearPowell: No 'painless' way to bring down inflationWASHINGTON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed on Wednesday that he and his fellow policymakers would \"keep at\" their battle to beat down inflation, as the U.S. central bank hiked interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for a third straight time and signaled that borrowing costs would keep rising this year.In a sobering new set of projections, the Fed foresees its policy rate rising at a faster pace and to a higher level than expected, the economy slowing to a crawl, and unemployment rising to a degree historically associated with recessions.Powell was blunt about the \"pain\" to come, citing rising joblessness and singling out the housing market, a persistent source of rising consumer inflation, as being likely in need of a \"correction.\"Earlier on Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors reported that U.S. existing home sales dropped for a seventh straight month in August.The United States has had a \"red hot housing market ... There was a big imbalance,\" Powell said in a news conference after Fed policymakers unanimously agreed to raise the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25%. \"What we need is supply and demand to get better aligned ... We probably in the housing market have to go through a correction to get back to that place.\"That theme, of a continuing mismatch between U.S. demand for goods and services and the ability of the country to produce or import them, ran through a briefing in which Powell stuck with the hawkish tone set during his remarks last month at the Jackson Hole central banking conference in Wyoming.Recent inflation data has shown little to no improvement despite the Fed's aggressive tightening - it also announced 75-basis-point rate hikes in June and July - and the labor market remains robust with wages increasing as well.The federal funds rate projected for the end of this year signals another 1.25 percentage points in rate hikes to come in the Fed's two remaining policy meetings in 2022, a level that implies another 75-basis-point increase in the offing.\"The committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective,\" the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in its policy statement after the end of a two-day policy meeting.The Fed \"anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.\"GROWTH SLOWDOWNThe Fed's target policy rate is now at its highest level since 2008 - and new projections show it rising to the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of this year and ending 2023 at 4.50%-4.75%.Powell said the indicated path of rates showed the Fed was \"strongly resolved\" to bring down inflation from the highest levels in four decades and that officials would \"keep at it until the job is done\" even at the risk of unemployment rising and growth slowing to a stall.\"We have got to get inflation behind us,\" Powell told reporters. \"I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn't.\"Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure has been running at more than three times the central bank's target. The new projections put it on a slow path back to 2% in 2025, an extended Fed battle to quell the highest bout of inflation since the 1980s, and one that potentially pushes the economy to the borderline of a recession.The Fed said that \"recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production,\" but the new projections put year-end economic growth for 2022 at 0.2%, rising to 1.2% in 2023, well below the economy's potential. The unemployment rate, currently at 3.7%, is projected to rise to 3.8% this year and to 4.4% in 2023. That would be above the half-percentage-point rise in unemployment that has been associated with past recessions.\"The Fed was late to recognize inflation, late to start raising interest rates, and late to start unwinding bond purchases. They've been playing catch-up ever since. And they're not done yet,\" said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.U.S. stocks, already mired in a bear market over concerns about the Fed's monetary policy tightening, ended the day sharply lower, with the S&P 500 index skidding 1.7%.In the U.S. Treasury market, which plays a key role in the transmission of Fed policy decisions into the real economy, yields on the 2-year note vaulted over the 4% mark, their highest levels since 2007.The dollar hit a fresh two-decade high against a basket of currencies, gaining more than 1%. The U.S. currency's strength - it has appreciated by more than 16% on a year-to-date basis - has stoked concern at central banks around the world about potential exchange rate and other financial shocks.Some are not even trying to match the Fed's blistering pace of tightening, with the Bank of Japan on Thursday expected to hold fast to its ultra-easy policy and keep its policy rate at minus 0.1%, likely leaving it as the last major monetary policy authority in the world with a negative policy rate.Others are making an effort to stay somewhat abreast of the Fed. The Bank of England, for example, is expected to lift its policy rate by at least half a percentage point on Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919258118,"gmtCreate":1663810619435,"gmtModify":1676537340816,"author":{"id":"4115455742852712","authorId":"4115455742852712","name":"jekok","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd8eef5e8647765552db7a9157795fd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115455742852712","idStr":"4115455742852712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919258118","repostId":"2269969281","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269969281","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1663800880,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269969281?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 06:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Slumps As Investors Absorb Hawkish Fed Rate Message","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269969281","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Fed raises rates by 75 bps to 3-3.25% range* Terminal rate seen hitting 4.6% in 2023* Investors ha","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Fed raises rates by 75 bps to 3-3.25% range</p><p>* Terminal rate seen hitting 4.6% in 2023</p><p>* Investors had expected 75 bps, but not higher for longer</p><p>* Sharp decline in final half-hour of trading</p><p>* Indexes down: Dow 1.7%, S&amp;P 1.71%, Nasdaq 1.79%</p><p>Sept 21 (Reuters) - Wall Street&#39;s main indexes see-sawed before slumping in the final 30 minutes of trading to end Wednesday lower, as investors digested another supersized Federal Reserve hike and its commitment to keep up increases into 2023 to fight inflation.</p><p>All three benchmarks finished more than 1.7% down, with the Dow posting its lowest close since June 17, with the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500, respectively, at their lowest point since July 1, and June 30.</p><p>At the end of its two-day meeting, the Fed lifted its policy rate by 75 basis points for the third time to a 3.00-3.25% range. Most market participants had expected such an increase, with only a 21% chance of a 100 bps rate hike seen prior to the announcement.</p><p>However, policymakers also signaled more large increases to come in new projections showing its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year before topping out at 4.60% in 2023. This is up from projections in June of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively.</p><p>Rate cuts are not foreseen until 2024, the central bank added, dashing any outstanding investor hopes that the Fed foresaw getting inflation under control in the near term. The Fed&#39;s preferred measure of inflation is now seen slowly returning to its 2% target in 2025.</p><p>In his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said U.S. central bank officials are &#34;strongly resolved&#34; to bring down inflation from the highest levels in four decades and &#34;will keep at it until the job is done,&#34; a process he repeated would not come without pain.</p><p>&#34;Chairman Powell delivered a sobering message. He stated that no one knows if there will be a recession or how severe, and that achieving a soft landing was always difficult,&#34; said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.</p><p>Higher rates and the battle against inflation was also feeding through into the U.S. economy, with the Fed&#39;s projections showing year-end growth of just 0.2% this year, rising to 1.2% in 2023.</p><p>&#34;Markets were already braced for some hawkishness, based on inflation reports and recent governor comments,&#34; said BMO&#39;s Ma.</p><p>&#34;But it&#39;s always interesting to see how the market reacts to the messaging. Hawkishness was to be expected, but while some in the market take comfort from that, others take the position to sell.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 522.45 points, or 1.7%, to 30,183.78, the S&amp;P 500 lost 66 points, or 1.71%, to 3,789.93 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 204.86 points, or 1.79%, to 11,220.19.</p><p>All 11 S&amp;P sectors finished lower, led by declines of more than 2.3% by Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.03 billion shares, compared with the 10.79 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and 70 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 446 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Slumps As Investors Absorb Hawkish Fed Rate Message</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Slumps As Investors Absorb Hawkish Fed Rate Message\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-22 06:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Fed raises rates by 75 bps to 3-3.25% range</p><p>* Terminal rate seen hitting 4.6% in 2023</p><p>* Investors had expected 75 bps, but not higher for longer</p><p>* Sharp decline in final half-hour of trading</p><p>* Indexes down: Dow 1.7%, S&amp;P 1.71%, Nasdaq 1.79%</p><p>Sept 21 (Reuters) - Wall Street&#39;s main indexes see-sawed before slumping in the final 30 minutes of trading to end Wednesday lower, as investors digested another supersized Federal Reserve hike and its commitment to keep up increases into 2023 to fight inflation.</p><p>All three benchmarks finished more than 1.7% down, with the Dow posting its lowest close since June 17, with the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500, respectively, at their lowest point since July 1, and June 30.</p><p>At the end of its two-day meeting, the Fed lifted its policy rate by 75 basis points for the third time to a 3.00-3.25% range. Most market participants had expected such an increase, with only a 21% chance of a 100 bps rate hike seen prior to the announcement.</p><p>However, policymakers also signaled more large increases to come in new projections showing its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year before topping out at 4.60% in 2023. This is up from projections in June of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively.</p><p>Rate cuts are not foreseen until 2024, the central bank added, dashing any outstanding investor hopes that the Fed foresaw getting inflation under control in the near term. The Fed&#39;s preferred measure of inflation is now seen slowly returning to its 2% target in 2025.</p><p>In his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said U.S. central bank officials are &#34;strongly resolved&#34; to bring down inflation from the highest levels in four decades and &#34;will keep at it until the job is done,&#34; a process he repeated would not come without pain.</p><p>&#34;Chairman Powell delivered a sobering message. He stated that no one knows if there will be a recession or how severe, and that achieving a soft landing was always difficult,&#34; said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.</p><p>Higher rates and the battle against inflation was also feeding through into the U.S. economy, with the Fed&#39;s projections showing year-end growth of just 0.2% this year, rising to 1.2% in 2023.</p><p>&#34;Markets were already braced for some hawkishness, based on inflation reports and recent governor comments,&#34; said BMO&#39;s Ma.</p><p>&#34;But it&#39;s always interesting to see how the market reacts to the messaging. Hawkishness was to be expected, but while some in the market take comfort from that, others take the position to sell.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 522.45 points, or 1.7%, to 30,183.78, the S&amp;P 500 lost 66 points, or 1.71%, to 3,789.93 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 204.86 points, or 1.79%, to 11,220.19.</p><p>All 11 S&amp;P sectors finished lower, led by declines of more than 2.3% by Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.03 billion shares, compared with the 10.79 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and 70 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 446 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4539":"次新股","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","COMP":"Compass, Inc.","SPY":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269969281","content_text":"* Fed raises rates by 75 bps to 3-3.25% range* Terminal rate seen hitting 4.6% in 2023* Investors had expected 75 bps, but not higher for longer* Sharp decline in final half-hour of trading* Indexes down: Dow 1.7%, S&P 1.71%, Nasdaq 1.79%Sept 21 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes see-sawed before slumping in the final 30 minutes of trading to end Wednesday lower, as investors digested another supersized Federal Reserve hike and its commitment to keep up increases into 2023 to fight inflation.All three benchmarks finished more than 1.7% down, with the Dow posting its lowest close since June 17, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, respectively, at their lowest point since July 1, and June 30.At the end of its two-day meeting, the Fed lifted its policy rate by 75 basis points for the third time to a 3.00-3.25% range. Most market participants had expected such an increase, with only a 21% chance of a 100 bps rate hike seen prior to the announcement.However, policymakers also signaled more large increases to come in new projections showing its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year before topping out at 4.60% in 2023. This is up from projections in June of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively.Rate cuts are not foreseen until 2024, the central bank added, dashing any outstanding investor hopes that the Fed foresaw getting inflation under control in the near term. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is now seen slowly returning to its 2% target in 2025.In his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said U.S. central bank officials are \"strongly resolved\" to bring down inflation from the highest levels in four decades and \"will keep at it until the job is done,\" a process he repeated would not come without pain.\"Chairman Powell delivered a sobering message. He stated that no one knows if there will be a recession or how severe, and that achieving a soft landing was always difficult,\" said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.Higher rates and the battle against inflation was also feeding through into the U.S. economy, with the Fed's projections showing year-end growth of just 0.2% this year, rising to 1.2% in 2023.\"Markets were already braced for some hawkishness, based on inflation reports and recent governor comments,\" said BMO's Ma.\"But it's always interesting to see how the market reacts to the messaging. Hawkishness was to be expected, but while some in the market take comfort from that, others take the position to sell.\"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 522.45 points, or 1.7%, to 30,183.78, the S&P 500 lost 66 points, or 1.71%, to 3,789.93 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 204.86 points, or 1.79%, to 11,220.19.All 11 S&P sectors finished lower, led by declines of more than 2.3% by Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.03 billion shares, compared with the 10.79 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.The S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and 70 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 446 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"COMP":0.9,"SSO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"SH":0.6,"NDX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":0.67,"ESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}