To The Moon

The Iran War Verdict: Most SGX REITs Now Fail the "4% CPF Floor Test" | 🦖EP1460 #investingiguanaI spent most of yesterday morning watching the Brent Crude ticker hit $80 and thinking about how quickly a headline in the Middle East travels to a shopping mall in Jurong.Most investors see a spike in oil prices and think about their petrol bill or the cost of a Grab ride. But if you hold Singapore REITs, the real drain is happening silently through the gross lease structures of the buildings you technically own. When utility costs jump, it isn't the tenants who pay the price—it is your distribution per unit. The dividend you were counting on is effectively being burned to keep the lights on and the air-con running.If you are holding retail or industrial REITs in your CPF-OA or SRS account and

The Iran War Verdict: Most SGX REITs Now Fail the "4% CPF Floor Test" | 🦖EP1460 #investingiguana I spent most of yesterday morning watching the Brent Crude ticker hit $80 and thinking about how quickly a headline in the Middle East travels to a shopping mall in Jurong. Most investors see a spike in oil prices and think about their petrol bill or the cost of a Grab ride. But if you hold Singapore REITs, the real drain is happening silently through the gross lease structures of the buildings you technically own. When utility costs jump, it isn't the tenants who pay the price—it is your distribution per unit. The dividend you were counting on is effectively being burned to keep the lights on and the air-con running. If you are holding retail or industrial REITs in your CPF-OA or SRS account a

$4,180 Gone in One Afternoon: The STI "Correction" Reality Check ( 03 Mar 2026) | 🦖EP1459The man sitting across from me on the East-West Line yesterday was staring at his CDP statement on his phone with the kind of focus usually reserved for a winning 4D ticket. But he wasn’t smiling. He watched the STI drop over 2% in a single session, and I could almost see the mental math happening as he realized his portfolio just took a S$4,000 hit.The index touching 5,000 was a psychological trap that lured many into ignoring the underlying numbers. We are seeing "recovery stories" in names like Olam and Top Glove that are actually just survival stories dressed in expensive PR. The uncomfortable truth is that most of these yields don't clear the 150 basis point spread I require to justify taking equi

$4,180 Gone in One Afternoon: The STI "Correction" Reality Check ( 03 Mar 2026) | 🦖EP1459The man sitting across from me on the East-West Line yesterday was staring at his CDP statement on his phone with the kind of focus usually reserved for a winning 4D ticket. But he wasn’t smiling. He watched the STI drop over 2% in a single session, and I could almost see the mental math happening as he realized his portfolio just took a S$4,000 hit.The index touching 5,000 was a psychological trap that lured many into ignoring the underlying numbers. We are seeing "recovery stories" in names like Olam and Top Glove that are actually just survival stories dressed in expensive PR. The uncomfortable truth is that most of these yields don't clear the 150 basis point spread I require to justify taking equi

Operation Epic Fury Part 2: The $33B "Iron Bastion" and 2 Other SG War Hedges | 🦖 EP1457The chatter at the coffee shop in Marine Parade is starting to sound a lot like 2022 again. Everyone is talking about "war hedges" and "safe havens" as the headlines around Operation Epic Fury continue to escalate.But when I run the numbers on our local "Iron Bastion" stocks—the names everyone assumes are safe right now—the forensic reality is actually quite jarring. ST Engineering and SGX are currently priced so high that the yield spread against your CPF Special Account has actually turned negative.You are essentially paying a premium for the privilege of taking on equity risk when the "risk-free" floor is already giving you more. That is a trade that makes very little sense once you strip away the em

ST Engineering Analysis: Record Revenue vs 34% Profit Drop Explained | 🦖EP1456 #investingiguana 🟩 While the Singapore Airshow headlines celebrate record-breaking revenues, a massive $388 million disconnect has opened up between the marketing brochures and the statutory reality of the balance sheet. Management is anchoring the narrative to "base operating performance," but for the retail investor, the core tension lies in a 34% crash in reported net profit that cannot be ignored. This gap between the "record" narrative and the accountant’s truth is where the forensic detective finds the smoking gun of narrative control. This forensic audit applies a deep-dive framework to the quality of margin-accretive expansion within the commercial aerospace segment versus the misfiring satellite communi

ST Engineering vs. CDL: The Truth About Massive Profit Swings (SGX Daily Pulse 27 Feb 26) | 🦖EP1452The auntie at the Bedok wet market was packing my vegetables this morning when she asked if I'd seen the STI lately. She sounded excited about the index nearing 5,000. That is usually the exact moment I start getting nervous.But here is the uncomfortable truth: that 5,000-point milestone is a psychological trap. I’ve been auditing the Q4 earnings for ST Engineering and CDL, and the underlying reality is far messier than the headline spikes. We have to stress-test these yields against the 4.0% CPF Special Account floor.Let's define a key term. The yield spread is the extra return you get for taking on equity risk instead of keeping cash in your CPF. Suntec REIT is one of the few clearing my 15

ST Engineering vs. CDL: The Truth About Massive Profit Swings (SGX Daily Pulse 27 Feb 26) | 🦖EP1452 The auntie at the Bedok wet market was packing my vegetables this morning when she asked if I'd seen the STI lately. She sounded excited about the index nearing 5,000. That is usually the exact moment I start getting nervous. But here is the uncomfortable truth: that 5,000-point milestone is a psychological trap. I’ve been auditing the Q4 earnings for ST Engineering and CDL, and the underlying reality is far messier than the headline spikes. We have to stress-test these yields against the 4.0% CPF Special Account floor. Let's define a key term. The yield spread is the extra return you get for taking on equity risk instead of keeping cash in your CPF. Suntec REIT is one of the few clearing my

Small-Cap Investing Strategy: Why Debt-Free Balance Sheets Beat Blue Chips | 🦖 EP1451 I’ve been watching the headlines about the STI hitting 5,000 with a growing sense of caution. It feels like everyone is celebrating a blue-chip victory parade right now, but my own forensic filters are pulling me in a completely different direction toward debt-free small-caps. The reason I felt compelled to pull these numbers together is the widening gap between index hype and underlying value. With the risk-free benchmark shifting—thanks to the Kevin Warsh nomination and our own 4.0% CPF SA rate—the traditional "safe" blue chip is starting to look structurally riskier than a clean small-cap balance sheet. I’m seeing companies like Micro-Mechanics with massive operating leverage that the market is mispric

OCBC FY2025 Results Review: Is the 99-Cent Dividend Safe Amidst NIM Compression? | 🦖EP1448 I have been watching OCBC's numbers for the past 48 hours and something in the detail does not sit right with me. The headline total income of S$14.6 billion looks solid. Record income is record income. But net profit slipped 2% and the Net Interest Margin dropped 29 basis points to 1.91%. That gap between the headline and the underlying trend is exactly where the forensic work starts. The yield spread on OCBC at current prices sits at around 90 basis points above the T-bill rate. In my framework, that is below the 150 basis point minimum I require before accepting equity risk with retirement capital. That is the number most people are not looking at. If you hold OCBC in your CPF Investment Scheme or