To The Moon

Here's the relative performance line for consumer staples -- you can see how the extremes in relative value were created.Staples lagged behind into the dot com peak, and gained ground during the 08 crash.More recently they have basically lagged for the past decade during the rise of big tech.Staples are described as defensive for this reason (healthcare, utilities, and sometimes REITs and gold miners, among others also fall into this category). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ You can kind of think of staples' relative performance line as a synthetic asset (i.e. long staples vs short S&P500). That synthetic asset did very well in 2022 (and did ok [briefly!] in March 2020, April 2025).This synthetic asset is now very cheap, and will probably serve as a dece

1.Consumer Staples extreme cheap vs the index.Some would say this is an opportunity.Others would say this is the type of thing you see at the top (n.b. notice where it traded at the dot-com bubble peak vs the 2009 financial crisis lows). 2.Shrinking Large Caps!Large caps (i.e. the S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -- excluding the top 100 mega-caps) market cap weight has shrunk to the smallest % on record.Still much larger than small and mid caps, but another sign of the times in these lop-sided markets (which are rich in price & opportunity For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ size indexes relative performanceBasically everything that's not mega caps have underperformed --- even large caps have seen significant underperformance (i.e. the S&P500 excluding the top 100 stocks)Highly unusual, but whenever it happens like this eventually you see some give-back... Rate Cuts = Commodities Up. 📈 A global pivot to rate cuts over the past 2 years has set up a major tailwind to growth ...and ultimately higher commodity prices. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 sto

1.The history of US interest rates is one of long-term cycles...Up phases, and down phases.High rates, low rates.But something stands out >> these cycles used to take a long time to run their course. The recent upcycle was faster and sharper.Is this the beginning of cycle compression? 2.Key theme for 2026... 🧐🤔Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ is Expensive.Commodities are Cheap.Rotation time? 3.Bonds $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ are still in a bear market...But here's some clues on the next steps: For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Com

1.Tech share of total S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ corporate capex has reached new all-time-highs. 👀 Bubble or boom, this is extreme. 2.After spending ~20-years dumping Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ (in the 90's/00's), Central Banks have spent the last 15-year undoing their previous mistake...Reserves Diversification remains a key driver in the modern Gold bull market. 3.A major secular tailwind behind US Equities has been the rise and rise of foreign stockholders.I'd call this a strength, a potential weakness, and a reflection of multiple facts-of-life in modern markets. For SG users only, welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commissi

1.Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ is up over 50% YTDNasdaq $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is up ~20% YTDAnd yet investors remain enamored with tech stocks, and ambivalent on gold... 2.Massive gap between gold and the cost of production...There's some very good things about this, but also some cause for caution. 3.Banks are reporting higher Loan Demand -- this is bullish for the economic outlook.Entirely consistent with out global growth reacceleration thesis... For SG users only, welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade wi

The rise of Retail.The 2020 stimmy unleashed a wave of speculation that has only grown and intensified since.There is an air of desperation.People feeling like they’re behind and trying to catch-up by taking big risks, people chasing those stories of overnight wealth, and even folk trying to get rich before AI takes over the world.Or in simpler terms, the combination of big bull markets, easy money, and improved access to trading and information has really democratized markets — and the numbers show it clearly. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SG

1.Public Markets = pick the asset class 🤔 Private Markets = pick the manager 🧐 Mileage varies greatly across (but not so much within) asset classes for Public assets -- while mileage varies enormously *within* asset classes for the very opaque, illiquid, and idiosyncratic Private markets... 2.Bubble Bursting?I previously highlighted when this chart was at its peak that this is either going to be a tipping point or tripping point for Bitcoin, and now it sure looks like a tripping point... 👀 For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete yo

1.Tide is Turning... 👀 "I keep coming back to this chart as barometer of speculative risk appetite and liquidity (+potential early-warning indicator). To that end, with bitcoin rolling over and tech topping out, it’s not a good sign." $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ 2.The "Relative Return Procession" is progressing...Next up?Gold breaking out vs stocks. 👀 $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ 3."in the long-run stocks go up"Yep.But sometimes they not only don't go up, but actually get f----d up. Here's some horrific examples.A world map infographic titled Worst Investor Experiences showing major cases of 80 to 100 percent returns below zero over 20-year periods from 1900 to 2000 with orange highlights on countries like United

1.Semi's Sign 'o the Times...Bulls: this is fine, this is the new normal, it's backed by earnings, it's high for good reason.Bears: this is dot-com 2.0, earnings are unsustainable, AI bubble.The Truth? $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ 2.Gold Bull ConsolidationsIt's entirely normal for big gold bull markets to have long pauses, and if anything the entire up-move in gold almost only happens over a few key weeks and days... $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ 3.Global Equities "Relative Value Trinity"...something for those focused on the next 3-5 years and beyond (vs the next 3-5 days or hours for that matter!) For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!Welc