To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $Global X Dow 30 Covered Call ETF(DJIA)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Two key macro charts this week. First one below shows the US PMI accelerating in 2026 and pulling away from the pack (with rest-of-world having peaked back in April). But it also shows a repeating pattern of global rolling over first, US going it alo

As noted, the earnings/macro story has been notably supportive for equities with the AI build-out and capex boom supporting a surge in (tech-driven) earnings. There has been some improvement in non-tech as well, and the economy has been relatively robust — but as the chart below shows, earnings momentum is running ahead of economic momentum due to the structural/thematic nature of it. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The problem is, again; things look about as good as it gets on the earnings momentum front (already rolling over from very strong levels). And then there’s the point that a lot of US leading economic indicators are pointing to a slowdown in 2027: A slowdown doesn’t necessa

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Notes from this week’s charts: The S&P500 closed October down -0.93% (still up +10.7% YTD). Meanwhile the equal-weighted S&P500 closed up +4.9% in October. Midterm patterns and seasonality suggest a strong run ahead for stocks. Value stocks are making new all-time highs following the yield correction. Global earnings breadth

Chart: Semiconductor Stocks Depending how you look at it, this may be one of the most bullish or bearish charts out there on US semiconductors… and by extension one of the most important charts for the US stockmarket right now. US Semiconductors’ market cap weighting has surged to record highs. It brings immediate comparisons to the dot-com spike, but equally immediate counterpoints on how the earnings weight has also soared — the mantra is: it’s different this time because it’s backed by earnings. But take a quick look at the chart… the dot com boom was backed by a surge in earnings weight too. So too was the lesser-known 1980’s semiconductor boom-bust cycle. This is a sector where boom and bust is the rule, not the exception (and a natural feature of disruptive tech adoption).

The latest hot topic in Global Equities is LatAm, and for good reason. EWZ (Brazil) jumped +20% over the past 2 weeks, and ILF (LatAm40) is up over 25% YTD. Big moves, especially for an often overlooked part of the markets — but the follow-up question is this: did we miss it? is it already done? (…or is there room to run?) This week’s chart goes a long way towards answering that question. The chart shows the PE10 or price vs trailing 10 years average earnings (also referred to as the Shiller PE or CAPE: cyclically adjusted PE) —the point of the PE10 is to correct for the distorting effects of cyclical swings in earnings that you often get with the forward or trailing 12month PE ratios. But the key point is the average PE10 across LatAm (this case = Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru) is

Tips and Takeaways from this week’s charts: The equal-weighted $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is following the seasonal script. Election cycle seasonality is very bullish for Q4 and 2027. (but a key question: have we already brought some of this forward?) Semis are slipping, and continue to trade at a significant premium. Macro headwinds loom in 2027, effective borrowing costs set to rise. See below for the full set of charts and details behind these points + the [new] market outlook section at the end for my latest assessment. 1. Technical Check:  After a sizeable selloff, the equal-weighted S&P500 is ticking up off the lows —breadth is also ticking up after a hefty reset. The headline cap-weighted S&P500 is also looking to be shaking-off its p

Investor allocations to cash and bonds are approaching levels that deserve attention. The risk is twofold: 1️⃣ Market risk Extremely low cash and bond allocations can be a late-cycle warning sign, when investors are heavily positioned and markets may be more vulnerable to a reversal. 2️⃣ Portfolio risk Investors may be underprepared for a drawdown, with too little defensive exposure if markets turn lower. But there’s a bigger question. Most investors are positioned for a repeat of the 1970s. Far fewer are prepared for a repeat of the 1920s. And fewer still are considering a third possibility. What if neither scenario plays out? What if yields simply gyrate within a new, higher range? Markets don’t have to repeat history exactly. The real risk may be assuming they will. Markets are always m

The defining theme of the 2020s may be capital expenditure. 🤖 AI & datacenters ⚡ EVs & electrification 🚀 Robotics, space & warfare 🔋 Energy transition & resources 🏭 Onshoring & next-gen manufacturing For years, markets were dominated by software, the internet and consumer tech. Now the world is shifting toward hardware, physical infrastructure and deep tech. And we may still be underestimating how big this capex cycle could become. AI needs datacenters. Electrification needs power. Robotics needs factories. Onshoring needs new manufacturing capacity. Energy transition needs massive infrastructure investment. The next decade may be less about building apps and more about rebuilding the physical world. Maybe we’re not bullish enough on capex. 📈 Markets are always moving -

After a parabolic run, gold $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ is starting to roll over relative to bonds. Both are losing right now. But that could change soon. A deeply contrarian idea is starting to emerge: What if the next major rotation trade is from gold into bonds? That sounds almost unthinkable to most investors. Gold has been the obvious winner. Bonds have been the laggard. But markets can change quickly when positioning, yields and expectations shift. 🧐 So what could trigger a major rotation from gold to bonds? Here’s how it could happen: Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields, oil prices and rate expectations keeping markets on edge this week, investors are once again th

One of the things I keep track of closely is what the average individual investor portfolio looks like — i.e. how investors are positioned in the aggregate. This is useful because it helps inform what stage of the cycle we are in, what the mood is, what the average exposure is, and where potential energy is building up (because major shifts and extremes in positioning often portend future explosive moves). Here’s the perfect example. This chart shows US household aggregate weighting to stocks at a record high. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ And the interesting thing is, household allocations to equities are at a record high at a time when valuations are likewise tapping on the all-time highs. And then dig a little further and you realize that the average inv