$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ That is the Palantir warning now. The Q1 report was strong. The government business is real. But that does not mean the stock is a good investment at any price. At today’s valuation, investors are not just paying for Palantir’s current business. They are paying for years of future execution that still has to happen.
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ This has happened before. Microsoft was one of the best businesses in the world during the dot-com bubble. It was not a broken company. It had revenue, earnings, cash, and dominance. In fiscal 2000, Microsoft generated $22.96 billion of revenue, $9.42 billion of net income, and $1.70 of diluted EPS. The business was still compounding, but the stock price had already pulled too much of the future into the present. Then the valuation reset hit. In fiscal 2001, Microsoft revenue still grew to $25.30 billion, and operating income increased to $11.72 billion. The company was still printing cash. In fiscal 2002, revenue grew again to $28.37 billion, net income recovered to $7.83 billion, and cash and short-
As long as the upward trend of EPS (currently adjusted to $331.23) remains unchanged, every plunge due to war news is a "discount day" for quality assets.
Last night the market was not affected by oil prices of the aviation sector, but the traditional logistics leader. Amazon announced the opening of its supply chain services, which is a tantamount declaration of war on FedEx and UPS$聯合包裹(UPS)$ $聯邦快遞(FDX)$
Watch the flow of money into the options market, and the single-day call purchase of retail investors surged to nearly 9 million contracts, up 350% since the March low. This extremely bullish derivative speculation is essentially a group's compensatory behavior towards 'FOMO'. Individual investors refuse to believe in the destructive power of the high-interest environment, trying to use the last liquidity to absorb the high valuation of technology stocks.
The investment logic in the mainland technology sector has undergone a fundamental shift, which is expected to have an impact on the market. The central government ordered the cancellation of a $2bn deal for Meta to buy Chinese AI start-up Manus, and told many AI companies including Moonshot AI and Stepfun that they are not allowed to accept US capital; and TikTok's parent company, Byte Dance， is not allowed to sell second-hand shares to US investors without government approval. There are signs that the US venture capital (primarily from pension funds and university endowments) which used to be actively involved in financing China's technology industry will be subject to more severe restrictions. The uncertainty over approval of tech companies moving from market-driven to government approv
TSM president tooks the topic and raised the perspective to the computing needs of the entire era. He pointed out that the number of tokens consumed is hopping geometrically from the query model to the instruction and action model of agent AI. This shift in underlying logic creates a huge rigid demand for advanced silicon chips.
$英特爾(INTC)$ (Bear Case): The transformation costs are extremely high. The huge loss and negative free cash flow on GAAP's books indicate that its financial constitution remains fragile. The wafer foundry business is still a long way from truly high yield and large-scale profitability, and it remains unclear whether future capital expenditures will drag the balance sheet down
$英特爾(INTC)$ ( Bull Case): The rise of edge AI (Edge AI) and AI agents has brought back computational demands from pure GPUs to heterogeneous architectures with 'CPU + GPUs. Intel's advanced packaging capacity became a scarce resource in the market. With the strategic support of the US government, its geopolitical moat is irreplaceable.