High Volatility in August? Analysis of COIN & HOOD Earnings and Q3 Hedging Strategies
Executive Summary This research report examines concerning market signals emerging from Q2 2025 earnings season, particularly the paradoxical negative reactions to strong earnings from Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN). Combined with technical indicators showing extreme VIX compression, unusual dark pool activity, and unfavorable seasonal patterns, we identify multiple convergent factors suggesting elevated volatility risk for August-September 2025. The most striking observation is that despite 96% of tech stocks beating earnings expectations, market leaders are being sold on exceptional results. HOOD delivered 45% revenue growth yet closed flat, while COIN's 3,861% profit surge was dismissed by investors who recognized the unsustainable nature of digital asset gains versus deterioratin
Understanding Commodity Supercycles: When Metals Markets Signal Major Shifts
A deep dive into how global liquidity, currency dynamics, and cycle theory combine to create decade-long trendsFor those who understood cycle analysis and the confluence of factors discussed in this framework, the gold breakout in February 2024 would have been clearly anticipated. The alignment of liquidity expansion, dollar weakness, and cyclical positioning all pointed to a major move in precious metals. That breakout, which many missed or dismissed as temporary, exemplified how understanding these deeper market dynamics can position investors ahead of significant trends. This analysis explores the framework for identifying and understanding these supercycles, particularly in precious metals and the broader mining sector, and what current market conditions suggest about the potential for
High Volatility in August? Analysis of COIN & HOOD and Q3 Hedging Strategies
View the full link of LIVEExecutive SummaryThis research report examines concerning market signals emerging from Q2 2025 earnings season, particularly the paradoxical negative reactions to strong earnings from $Robinhood(HOOD)$ and $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ . Combined with technical indicators showing extreme $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ compression, unusual dark pool activity, and unfavorable seasonal patterns, we identify multiple convergent factors suggesting elevated volatility risk for August-September 2025.The
The Week Ahead: Key Earnings, Sector Rotations, and Chart Setups to Watch
As we head into a pivotal earnings week, the market is presenting fascinating opportunities across multiple sectors. With 70% of the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector reporting earnings over the next two weeks, and options pricing implying the lowest volatility in two decades, this could be the perfect storm for savvy traders. Let's dive into what's moving and where the smart money is positioning. The Dollar's Hidden Impact on Q2 Earnings While everyone seems bearish on the dollar short-term (which could actually lead to a counter-trend rally), the real story is what the dollar's weakness throughout 2025 means for Q2 earnings. The dollar has been weakening since January, and Goldman Sachs is projecting a further 4% decline in the trade-weighted USD. This creates a sign