Hynix's record KRW 104.6T revenue / 83.3T op profit and Samsung's doubled guidance to KRW 195T / 107.4T have reignited the memory super-cycle thesis, lifting Hynix 13.3%, Micron 5.86%, and SanDisk 7.66%. SanDisk reports Friday morning Beijing time with street expecting $10.85B revenue and $47.15 EPS above guidance — the baton is his to drop. A true confirmation for the cycle to run further needs higher HBM/NAND pricing, not just shipments, plus a raise in Q1 outlook and no sign of supply flood. At these prices, the reward is there but so is the risk if SanDisk only meets and doesn't beat-and-raise.
Cash is now the AI scorecard, not spending. QQQ fell 1.42% and S&P 500 0.30% Thursday because investors are punishing cash burn: Amazon missed with $201.9B revenue and $1.89 EPS, and despite AWS growing 39% to $48.1B, its TTM free cash flow dropped 35% to $42.2B, causing another 7.30% drop in after hours trading after the close; Microsoft slipped only 0.16% because its AI capex is more clearly monetized via Azure and Copilot subscriptions; Meta gained 1.96% because it uses AI to boost ad returns without heavy cloud capex. For me, Meta will prove cash returns first in the short-term, Microsoft has the best mid-term path to turn AI spend into recurring cash, while Amazon has the hardest job proving its massive capex cycle actually expands margins.
Worth noting today is the defensive rotation after DJI down 1.23% to 52215, SPX down 0.52% and IXIC holding better down 0.21%. Market is weighing oil breaking 100 adding inflation pressure and the Tesla SpaceX merger hype reversing with SpaceX down 9.14% and Tesla down 3.08% on governance and dilution concerns. Stocks to watch: Tesla and SpaceX for follow through selling, BigBear AI after that Google deal still volatile, Lam Research which dropped 17% last week needs to show recovery, and defensives like Procter and Gamble, Costco, Walmart, Coca-Cola and Berkshire for continued safe haven flow. Trading plan: I am not chasing defensives at highs, waiting for tech to wash out. If Nasdaq holds 25900, could look for bounce in oversold AI names, otherwise stay defensive with cash he
SpaceX falling 9.14% and Tesla 3.08% shows how messy this unconfirmed merger idea is. Governance, exchange terms and regulatory scrutiny would complicate any deal. Bulls like the SpaceX 14.58B quarterly revenue including 7.56B from AI and synergies across Starlink, compute, energy and autonomy, but bears are right to worry about dilution and control conflicts for Tesla shareholders. Until real terms emerge, dilution risk should outweigh synergy hype in valuation in my view.
This defensive rotation looks real with Procter & Gamble up 5.58%, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, Walmart, Costco and Berkshire Hathaway up 1.32% all outperforming as AI valuations compress. Berkshire's roughly 360B cash, renewed buybacks, Taylor Morrison deal and bigger Alphabet stake show Buffett deploying capital while tech stalls. Bulls see steadier earnings, but I agree with bears that defensives are extended. If tech rebounds, this could reverse fast. For a lasting shift we need earnings follow-through, not just one flight to safety.
Oil breaking $100 is adding pressure to tech already weak on AI capex fears. This rotation to defensives makes sense short term, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Walmart, Costco and Eli Lilly all showing safe haven bid. I think Berkshire Hathaway with $360B cash and buybacks is best positioned if selloff continues, but defensives look extended now. I see this as one day flight to safety unless oil holds above $100, then AI valuations need to reset further before rebound.
I pick A $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ after sell-off. Both beat earnings but fell with market ytd. $MS reported $3.03 vs $2.91 est, trading $5.79B beat by $900M but down 2.8% on hot inflation. $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ also beat EPS, raised 2026 forecast 3rd time, CEO said AI demand will outstrip equipment supply in 2027/28 and clients ordering for 2029/30, but down 3.9%
I vote Flat for Thursday close. Reason is simple — Q3 already leaked. Revenue up 50% to 1.49T, profit up 65% to 746B, 6th record quarter. Market knows already. TSM ADR now $445, up a lot this year. So Oct 15 earnings likely beat, but stock may not shoot 10% unless Q4 guidance super bullish. AI demand still main driver, but a lot priced in already. For me i hold long term, short term maybe flat to small green 2-3%. If dip i will add. Not financial advice, just sharing.
Micron (MU) and SNDK just blew past 10%, crushing the market's volatility as capital swings back into the AI infrastructure trade. Morgan Stanley just jacked Micron's price target from $350 to $450, slapping an Overweight rating on it and pointing to the HBM4 capacity ramp as the big catalyst. SNDK's surge shows the storage sector's momentum is still firing, riding the AI data‑center buildout wave. Key takeaway: the AI‑driven memory boom is making MU a sweet pick, with the $450 target looking doable if the HBM4 rollout stays on track. Keep an eye on supply‑chain updates and demand from data‑center builds to gauge next moves.