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Adz5150

Small retail investor, big curiosity. Sharing simple thoughts on stocks, AI, semis, and market psych

    • Adz5150Adz5150
      ·06:32
      $Apple(AAPL)$   Started small with AAPL.. nothing crazy, just learning the game properly. Up a bit so far, but more focused on building habits than chasing quick wins. Everyone starts somewhere.. this is mine I think!  📈
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    • Adz5150Adz5150
      ·06:23
      Yeah this is what I’m watching too. Feels like everything is fine until the Fed says otherwise… market seems pretty sensitive here.
      @MHh：
      I am definitely more worried about FOMC. The next fed chair can lift the entire stock market or cause it to crash depending on how dovish or hawkish he is. This is independent of the performance of big tech. Of course, big tech has risen quite a fair bit and some corrections might happen. If warsh doesn’t cut rates as the market expects, equities will definitely come under pressure. Afterall, the market has already priced in rate cuts as trump would like to see. The market has been trained to fed manipulating the performance of equities since Covid. 5 years is more than enough for conditioned behavior. I think whatever pullback in the AI narrative will only be temporary. AI is for the future and use cases will expand exponentially which would create further pressure on demand.
      I am definitely more worried about FOMC. The next fed chair can lift the entire stock market or cause it to crash depending on how dovish or hawkish he is. This is independent of the performance of big tech. Of course, big tech has risen quite a fair bit and some corrections might happen. If warsh doesn’t cut rates as the market expects, equities will definitely come under pressure. Afterall, the market has already priced in rate cuts as trump would like to see. The market has been trained to fed manipulating the performance of equities since Covid. 5 years is more than enough for conditioned behavior. I think whatever pullback in the AI narrative will only be temporary. AI is for the future and use cases will expand exponentially which would create further pressure on demand.
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    • Adz5150Adz5150
      ·06:22
      Strong month, but feels like the real question now is whether this is momentum carrying through or the point where expectations get too stretched. FOMC probably matters more than anything here..one shift in tone and sentiment fills fast! Feeling like a “don’t chase highs blindly” kind of setup.
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    • Adz5150Adz5150
      ·06:19
      AMD feels like it’s in that tricky spot where the AI narrative is strong, but expectations are already priced in. Seeing mixed takes, some calling buy, others saying sell into strength, which probably says a lot about how stretched things might be short term. Still learning, but feels like this one comes down to execution vs expectations more than hype.
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    • Adz5150Adz5150
      ·06:15
      Interesting watching NVDA drop while the broader AI story is still strong. Feels like the market isn’t just reacting to results anymore, but to expectations, valuation, and whether growth can keep surprising. Still learning, but this feels like a good reminder not to chase blindly.
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    • Adz5150Adz5150
      ·05-01 06:08
      Alphabet’s beat looks more fundamental than sentiment driven to me. Cloud strength matters, but the bigger signal is that Google is starting to show AI can support both growth and monetisation at scale.  My read: the rally makes sense,  but the path to a $5T narrative depends on whether this becomes sustained margin-accretive execution, not just one strong quarter.$Alphabet(GOOGL)$  
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    • Adz5150Adz5150
      ·05-01 05:57
      Meta’s selloff makes sense if the market is reacting to the sheer size of capex, but I do not think higher spending automatically means the thesis is broken. If that investment keeps improving AI engagement, ad tools, and monetisation, this may end up looking more like investment shock $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  than structural weakness. My read: near term, volatility probably stays elevated. Longer term, the real question is whether Meta earns enough on that spend to justify the fear.
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    • Adz5150Adz5150
      ·05-01 05:44
      Amazon’s Q1 strength looks real, especially if AWS growth is reaccelerating. But I do not think the market will ignore capex concerns just because the quarter was strong. My read: near term, strong cloud momentum can keep sentiment constructive. Longer term, the bigger question is whether that spending converts into enough margin and cash flow to justify the scale. To me, the debate is not whether Amazon can grow. It is whether the return on that AI and infrastructure spend stays strong enough to keep the multiple supported.$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 
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    • Adz5150Adz5150
      ·05-01 05:30
      Rates holding steady was widely expected. The bigger question now is whether the market treats this as a pause that still supports risk assets, or as a reminder that cuts may come slower than many want. To me, the next move depends less on the hold itself and more on how inflation, labour data, and earnings momentum line up from here. My read: this is not automatically straight-up bullish. It gives the market room to stay constructive, but it still needs proof. I would separate short term relief from a durable next leg higher.$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  
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    • Adz5150Adz5150
      ·04-29
      Google reaching new highs says a lot about how much confidence the market has in the business right now. But at these levels, the question changes. It is no longer just about whether Google is strong. It is about whether earnings can keep outperforming what investors have already priced in. For me, the things that matter most are: - Advertising  resilience - Cloud momentum - AI monetisation - Also whether management can keep proving that growth and discipline can coexist My view: Google can still be a high-quality long-term name, but the higher the stock goes, the less room there is for even small disappointments.
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