At roughly $154.90, USO 🛢️ looks like a compelling tactical short on a mean-reversion view. The current price is near its 52-week high and appears to embed a large, conflict-driven supply and shipping-risk premium. If disrupted production and trade flows normalize—as the base case expects during 2027—the premium should unwind. Higher prices also encourage supply response while curbing demand, reinforcing the downside once scarcity fears ease. “normal” USO reference is around $70, with a broad normal range of roughly $60–80. $90–100 remains elevated; $165–170 is a disruption/shock regime. Timeframe: base case expects most disrupted oil flows to normalize around Q2 2027 STRAT✨: A synthetic short is a strategy you can consider in current scenario often results in a credit - allowing you
