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宏观姐夫

15年交易操盘，历经2轮熊牛，擅长把宏观说的简单。

    • 宏观姐夫宏观姐夫
      ·06-03 17:23

      Called It! Bitcoin’s $6,000 Crash Validates My "Vanishing Buying Power" Warning

      A day in crypto feels like a year in the real world. Four days ago (May 29), when Bitcoin was hovering around $73,000 with low trading volume and the market was still fantasizing about breaking previous highs, I published a post titled "Bitcoin Suffers Largest Capital Outflow of the Year: Four Data Tables Showing Where the Crypto Market's Buying Power is Disappearing." My core conclusion back then was crystal clear: The fundamental driver of this correction is not a frenzy of panic selling, but rather a collective defensive retreat by institutions, ETFs, and new on-chain capital, which has caused the market's buying power to vanish. As it turned out,
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      Called It! Bitcoin’s $6,000 Crash Validates My "Vanishing Buying Power" Warning
    • 宏观姐夫宏观姐夫
      ·06-03 11:10
      Replying to @Porsche with no brakes:Spot on. Liquidity always needs a new home. //@Porsche with no brakes:One narrative replacing another narrative.

      三大萬億美元超級 IPO 殺到！SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic：到底邊個喺度賣夢想，邊個先係賣緊真業績？

      @宏观姐夫：
      2026年嘅美股 IPO 市場，可能正喺度迎接一批真正意義上嘅超級資產。 SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic，呢三間公司先後企咗喺資本市場嘅聚光燈之下。SpaceX 代表太空基礎設施，OpenAI 代表 AI 超級入口，Anthropic 就代表企業 AI 工作流。佢哋唔係普通嘅科技公司，亦都唔單止係新股市場嘅一場熱鬧，而係公開市場第一次集中幫未來十年嘅三條超級主線定價：太空時代、AGI 時代、同埋企業智能化時代。 但係從投資角度嚟睇，愈係呢種級數嘅公司，就愈唔可以淨係問一句「佢偉唔偉大」。偉大嘅公司同埋好嘅投資之間，永遠都隔住一個價錢。真正嘅問題係：呢啲超級估值入面，到底有幾多係嚟自已經兌現嘅業績，又有幾多係嚟自未來十年嘅夢想？ 可以先用一個簡單公式去理解呢類超級 IPO： 投資價值 = 現實業績 + 未來夢想 × 兌現概率 - 估值透支 呢個亦都係睇 SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic 最重要嘅框架。夢想決定天花板，業績決定地板，價錢就決定最終回報。 先睇一張總表 呢張表基本上概括咗呢三間公司嘅分別： SpaceX：夢想最大、資產最硬； OpenAI：入口最強、平臺想像空間最大； Anthropic：落地最清晰，但係估值亦都最考驗市場嘅消化能力。 SpaceX：夢想最大，但唔係純粹賣夢 SpaceX 最容易畀人理解成一間「賣夢想」嘅公司。火箭發射、可回收火箭、Starlink、衛星互聯網、火星計劃、太空基礎設施，呢啲關鍵詞天然帶住馬斯克式嘅未來感。佢講嘅唔係普通嘅商業故事，而係人類文明向外擴張嘅故事。 但係如果將 SpaceX 理解成純粹賣夢想，又唔多準確。喺呢三間公司入面，SpaceX 反而係資產最「硬」嘅一個。佢有真實嘅火箭發射能力，有政府同埋商業客戶，亦都有 Starlink 呢類實打實嘅現實業務。路透社之前報道話，SpaceX IPO 嘅
      三大萬億美元超級 IPO 殺到！SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic：到底邊個喺度賣夢想，邊個先係賣緊真業績？
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    • 宏观姐夫宏观姐夫
      ·05-29

      Bitcoin’s Biggest Buyer Is Walking Away

      Since Bitcoin rebounded to $83,000 earlier this month, the crypto market has been steadily losing momentum. By this week, Bitcoin had slipped back toward $73,000, while Ethereum was hovering near $2,000. But the more important signal is not just the price decline itself. A closer look at market structure suggests that the bid behind crypto is weakening. Across institutional flows, ETF demand, on-chain cost levels and derivatives positioning, the same message is becoming harder to ignore: buyers are stepping back. Institutional Flows Were the First to Turn The first place to look is institutional capital. In mid-May, digital asset investment products recorded $1.07 billion in weekly outflows, ending a six-week streak of inflows. Bitcoin products accounted for $982 million of those outflows,
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      Bitcoin’s Biggest Buyer Is Walking Away
    • 宏观姐夫宏观姐夫
      ·05-28

      A Regional Snapshot Shows U.S. Manufacturing May Be Regaining Its Footing

      This week, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have successively reached record highs. In addition to AI and corporate earnings expectations, the resilience of the US economy itself is also an important backdrop supporting the risk appetite of US stocks. Today, we attempt to provide a perspective on the state of US manufacturing from the newly released Richmond Fed manufacturing data. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index rose from 3 in April to 13 in May, significantly higher than market expectations. More importantly, the three core sub-indices rebounded in tandem: new orders rose from 8 to 17, shipments from -2 to 16, and employment from 0 to 3. It should be noted that the Richmond Fed covers the Fifth Federal Reserve District of the US, including Washington, D.C., Maryland, North Carol
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      A Regional Snapshot Shows U.S. Manufacturing May Be Regaining Its Footing
    • 宏观姐夫宏观姐夫
      ·05-26

      Guinea Moves on Bauxite Exports: Is Aluminum’s Upstream Cost Curve Being Repriced?

      A quiet shift is taking place at the very top of the global aluminum supply chain. Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite producer, plans to announce new export control measures in June. The goal is not to stop exports, but to manage volumes and push prices back to what the government sees as a more reasonable level. Bauxite sits at the starting point of the aluminum chain. It is processed into alumina, which is then used to produce primary aluminum. If bauxite starts to be repriced, the impact will not stop at the mine gate. Alumina, primary aluminum and downstream aluminum products will all have to recalculate their costs. Why Guinea Is Acting Guinea is not short of bauxite. The issue is that it may have been selling too much, too cheaply. In 2025, Guinea’s bauxite exports rose 25% to about
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      Guinea Moves on Bauxite Exports: Is Aluminum’s Upstream Cost Curve Being Repriced?
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