To The Moon

Semiconductor stocks have not responded to Big Tech earnings in the way investors might have expected. Despite continued investment in AI infrastructure, chip stocks remain under pressure, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF still more than 20% below its record high. The latest earnings have highlighted an important distinction: strong AI spending does not automatically mean every semiconductor company will benefit equally. Microsoft and Alphabet have both demonstrated significant demand for cloud and AI services, but their results also raise questions about the scale of investment required and how quickly that spending can generate returns. For chipmakers, the market needs more than announcements of larger AI budgets. It wants evidence that those budgets are becoming orders, shipments and

Alphabet’s latest sell-off has created an interesting technical situation. After a disappointing earnings report sent shares sharply lower, the stock has triggered a bearish signal known as a death cross. For traders, this is a warning sign. For longer-term investors, however, the question is whether the signal is arriving too late to be useful. Alphabet has already experienced a significant decline, with investors reassessing its AI strategy, advertising growth and the enormous cost of expanding its data-centre infrastructure. The latest technical signal adds another reason for caution, but it does not necessarily mean another major decline is inevitable. 1. What exactly is a death cross? A death cross occurs when a stock’s 50-day moving average falls below its 200-day moving average. The

Friday’s market could be particularly interesting as investors digest a difficult week for major technology stocks. The latest earnings reports have exposed an important divide: AI-related revenue continues to grow, but the cost of building the infrastructure is putting pressure on cash flow and investor confidence. Alphabet’s sharp decline, Intel’s disappointing outlook and concerns about Amazon’s free cash flow have created a more selective environment. Investors may still believe in the long-term AI opportunity, but they are becoming less willing to reward spending without clear evidence of financial returns. Here are six stocks and themes I would keep on the watchlist today. 1. Alphabet (GOOGL) – Can the sell-off create an opportunity? Alphabet plunged 12.64% after its latest results d

Alphabet’s latest earnings report presents one of the biggest contradictions in the current AI investment cycle. Google Cloud revenue more than doubled, operating income increased substantially, and demand for AI infrastructure appears exceptionally strong. Yet investors sent the stock down 12.64% on Thursday. Why did such impressive cloud growth trigger such a negative market reaction? The answer lies in the difference between growing a business and generating cash from that growth. Alphabet is investing enormous amounts of money to strengthen its position in AI. It is building data centres, purchasing advanced chips, expanding computing capacity and developing AI products. These investments may create significant long-term opportunities, but the financial cost is becoming increasingly di

Intel’s latest results have created an uncomfortable contrast for the technology sector. While demand for AI infrastructure continues to expand, the traditional PC business is showing signs of weakness. Its disappointing fourth-quarter outlook has also raised questions about whether the expected PC recovery is arriving more slowly than investors anticipated. Intel shares fell 3.62% during Thursday’s session before plunging 23% after hours. The reaction was not simply about one quarterly earnings miss. Investors were responding to weaker forward guidance and concerns that the company’s operating challenges could continue into the next quarter. Intel reported Q3 revenue of $16.5 billion, below expectations, while adjusted earnings per share of $0.41 slightly exceeded forecasts. However, its

For the past two years, the AI investment story has largely been about growth. Technology companies have been racing to build data centres, secure advanced chips, expand cloud capacity and develop increasingly powerful AI models. Every major spending announcement has reinforced the belief that AI could become one of the biggest sources of future corporate earnings. But the market is beginning to look beyond the size of these investments. As earnings reports reveal higher capital expenditure and pressure on free cash flow, investors are facing a more important question: Can the companies spending billions on AI eventually generate enough additional cash to justify the cost? This is where the distinction between revenue growth, accounting profit and free cash flow becomes particularly import

For me, the strongest evidence would be sustained revenue growth from AI services, improving free cash flow and margins, and clear signs that customer demand is keeping pace with infrastructure spending. I would also watch how quickly companies turn new data centre capacity into revenue. If earnings grow faster than capital expenditure over several quarters, that would give me more confidence that today’s AI spending can deliver attractive long-term returns. Until then, I think investors should be selective rather than assuming every AI-related company will benefit equally.

I think free cash flow is the most important factor right now. The AI opportunity is real, but not every company spending billions will generate attractive returns. Microsoft looks better positioned to justify its investment through cloud growth, while Alphabet needs to show that its rising AI spending can translate into stronger profits. I believe the next phase of the AI rally will reward companies that can turn spending into cash, rather than simply those spending the most.

Choosing an ETF is relatively easy when markets are rising. The real challenge comes when your investment underperforms, other investors are celebrating bigger gains, and you start wondering whether you should have chosen something else. If I were choosing one ETF to accumulate regularly over the long term, I would consider the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT). My reason is not that I expect it to deliver the highest returns every year. Instead, I like the idea of investing across global markets without having to predict which country, sector or group of companies will lead the next decade. However, there is a trade-off that every VT investor needs to understand: global diversification can mean accepting periods of underperformance while other markets take the lead. 1. Why VT would be m

The memory trade is heating up again, but the biggest question is whether strong industry results can translate into another round of earnings surprises. On Wednesday, $SK Hynix(000660.KS)$ surged 13.30%, $Micron(MU)$ gained 5.86%, and $SanDisk(SNDK)$ climbed 7.66%. The rally followed record results from SK Hynix and encouraging profit guidance from Samsung, strengthening expectations that the memory upcycle still has room to run. The numbers are striking. SK Hynix reported KRW 104.6 trillion in revenue and KRW 83.3 trillion in operating profit. Samsung guided for KRW 195 trillion in revenue and KRW 107.4 trillion in operating profit. These are Samsung’s preliminary guidance figures, not final reported results. Now attention turns to SanDisk, which is scheduled to report earnings early Fri