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一抹阳光_1180
2021-07-12

Tianfeng Securities: The new cycle is a feast of hard technology

在2021年A股市场中期策略中，天风证券表示，继续看好A股拥有硬核科技的相关产业，同时继续看淡沪深300和上证50。天风证券分析师刘晨明等认为，硬科技的盛宴可能演绎到极致，产业周期和景气度决定成长板

Tianfeng Securities: The new cycle is a feast of hard technology

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":146375924,"tweetId":"146375924","gmtCreate":1626056321368,"gmtModify":1703752475586,"author":{"id":3585692135566752,"idStr":"3585692135566752","authorId":3585692135566752,"authorIdStr":"3585692135566752","name":"一抹阳光_1180","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8c261b08edfd8a540eb205f094c278","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146375924","repostId":1179578354,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179578354","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626056274,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179578354?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-12 10:17","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Tianfeng Securities: The new cycle is a feast of hard technology","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179578354","media":"天风证券","summary":"在2021年A股市场中期策略中，天风证券表示，继续看好A股拥有硬核科技的相关产业，同时继续看淡沪深300和上证50。\n天风证券分析师刘晨明等认为，硬科技的盛宴可能演绎到极致，产业周期和景气度决定成长板","content":"In the medium-term strategy of the A-share market in 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>He said that he continues to be optimistic about related industries with hard-core technology in A-shares, and at the same time continues to be bearish on the CSI 300 and SSE 50.Liu Chenming, an analyst at Tianfeng Securities, and others believe that the feast of hard technology may be interpreted to the extreme, and the industrial cycle and prosperity determine the medium-term trend and direction of the growth sector. However, macro external shocks affect the rhythm of growth stocks, and the impact is expected to mainly start in August.Trend research and judgment: a feast of hard technologyTianfeng Securities pointed out that the macro-policy variable assumptions in the medium-term dimension in the future revolve around one core: from \"giving priority to efficiency\" to \"giving consideration to fairness\":In this context, the main line of policies is basically clear-anti-monopoly, anti-corruption, suppressing the leverage of real estate and local governments, and increasing residents' disposable income (reducing the necessary living costs such as education, medical care and housing); At the same time, we will vigorously support high-end manufacturing (developing strategic emerging industries) and small and medium-sized enterprises (ensuring employment and people's livelihood). Tianfeng Securities said that the above policy contexts all point to a type of asset, namely high-end manufacturing (new energy, semiconductor, military industry and other sectors). The market may interpret the feast of hard technology to the extreme, and the valuation may not be worth mentioning in the face of the nonlinear upward trend of performance. In the face of deterministic industry trends, any macro disturbance may be an opportunity for reallocation:In the face of absolutely high growth rates (the first three lines), there is no obvious distinction between the current valuation and the future rise and fall (the non-linear upward trend of industry or performance can quickly digest the high valuation). However, in the growth range of 0-30% (the middle three rows), the valuation has a greater impact on the ranking of excess returns, that is, companies with steady growth need to consider the valuation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b9676385b37f3fc34e755f1852387f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At the same time, TF Securities pointed out that in recent years, the financing environment has obviously been biased towards emerging industries and manufacturing industries. In the first half of 2021, the financing amount (IPO + fixed increase) of electronics, machinery, medicine, automobiles, chemicals, electrical equipment, and computers accounted for 54% of the entire market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c07b4afd25fc6086b744dcfc2df5890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the other hand, TF Securities said that the current good companies may not be good stocks in the future, and continues to be bearish on the CSI 300 and SSE 50:① The higher global capital return target suppresses the valuation of domestic long-term assets; ② China continues to reduce the leverage of real estate and local governments, which is also detrimental to the profit expectations of related companies; ③ Finally, according to the accurate identification index of asset allocation and valuation cost performance-the yield difference between stocks and bonds, the yield difference between Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stocks and bonds hit the extreme value of +2X standard deviation before the Spring Festival, and then the index weakened. At present, it is at the position of +1X standard deviation ~ mean value, and the cost performance is still not high. Rhythm judgment: Liquidity shocks are expected to start in AugustTianfeng Securities said that the industrial cycle and prosperity determine the medium-term trend and direction of the growth sector, and pursuing high prosperity is the unchanging \"philosophy\" of the A-share market.The study found that the penetration rate is 5%-30%, which is the best stage for Davis to double-click, such as the current new energy vehicles. In this process, any macro external shocks may be opportunities for reallocation.According to Tianfeng Securities, in terms of penetration rate, the growth industry continues to enjoy a valuation premium. After the industry ends the introduction period and enters the growth period (threshold 5-10%), the stock price and valuation rise rapidly; After entering the maturity stage (threshold 30-50%), the valuation will be digested over a longer period of time.Taking new energy vehicles as an example, according to the IEA pure electric + plug-in hybrid caliber, as of 2020, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is 5.7%, and that in Europe is only 10%. According to domestic statistics, as of 2021H1, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 12%, which is still increasing rapidly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f07669d4b806d5cfca28a7f26235fa57\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Regarding whether the short-term sentiment of the GEM is overheated, the agency said that it can be measured by the turnover rate of the liquid market value of the GEM Composite Index. More than 5% is a short-term peak sign, which is currently around 4.1%.However, TF Securities also pointed out that in the short term, macro external shocks such as liquidity determine the rhythm of the growth sector:In a shorter range (quarterly, monthly), in addition to its own industrial cycle driving factors, the growth sector will also be affected by market sentiment and marginal changes in the liquidity environment. Taking DR007 to measure the liquidity of the financial system, taking the bull market of technology stocks from 2013 to 2015 and since 2020 as an example, most of the time, when the central bank increases its investment and inter-bank interest rates fall, strong sectors tend to accelerate; When the liquidity margin tightens, such as during the two money shortages in 2013, May-June in 2020 and the beginning of this year, strong sectors will underperform the broader market in stages.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37972e0d6d359381e0d3ad228c8522a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tianfeng believes that the next external shock will be the focus, the inflection point of US dollar liquidity, or the biggest gray rhinoceros in the second half of the year:Regarding the two key factors of TGA pressure drop rhythm and QE shrinkage timing, the former may see the inflection point of liquidity release after August, while the latter may enter the expected fermentation window period in the middle and late third quarter, and enter the official reduction window in the first quarter of next year.","source":"lsy1580698218703","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tianfeng Securities: The new cycle is a feast of hard technology</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTianfeng Securities: The new cycle is a feast of hard technology\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n天风证券2021-07-12 10:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIn the medium-term strategy of the A-share market in 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>He said that he continues to be optimistic about related industries with hard-core technology in A-shares, and at the same time continues to be bearish on the CSI 300 and SSE 50.Liu Chenming, an analyst at Tianfeng Securities, and others believe that the feast of hard technology may be interpreted to the extreme, and the industrial cycle and prosperity determine the medium-term trend and direction of the growth sector. However, macro external shocks affect the rhythm of growth stocks, and the impact is expected to mainly start in August.Trend research and judgment: a feast of hard technologyTianfeng Securities pointed out that the macro-policy variable assumptions in the medium-term dimension in the future revolve around one core: from \"giving priority to efficiency\" to \"giving consideration to fairness\":In this context, the main line of policies is basically clear-anti-monopoly, anti-corruption, suppressing the leverage of real estate and local governments, and increasing residents' disposable income (reducing the necessary living costs such as education, medical care and housing); At the same time, we will vigorously support high-end manufacturing (developing strategic emerging industries) and small and medium-sized enterprises (ensuring employment and people's livelihood). Tianfeng Securities said that the above policy contexts all point to a type of asset, namely high-end manufacturing (new energy, semiconductor, military industry and other sectors). The market may interpret the feast of hard technology to the extreme, and the valuation may not be worth mentioning in the face of the nonlinear upward trend of performance. In the face of deterministic industry trends, any macro disturbance may be an opportunity for reallocation:In the face of absolutely high growth rates (the first three lines), there is no obvious distinction between the current valuation and the future rise and fall (the non-linear upward trend of industry or performance can quickly digest the high valuation). However, in the growth range of 0-30% (the middle three rows), the valuation has a greater impact on the ranking of excess returns, that is, companies with steady growth need to consider the valuation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b9676385b37f3fc34e755f1852387f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At the same time, TF Securities pointed out that in recent years, the financing environment has obviously been biased towards emerging industries and manufacturing industries. In the first half of 2021, the financing amount (IPO + fixed increase) of electronics, machinery, medicine, automobiles, chemicals, electrical equipment, and computers accounted for 54% of the entire market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c07b4afd25fc6086b744dcfc2df5890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the other hand, TF Securities said that the current good companies may not be good stocks in the future, and continues to be bearish on the CSI 300 and SSE 50:① The higher global capital return target suppresses the valuation of domestic long-term assets; ② China continues to reduce the leverage of real estate and local governments, which is also detrimental to the profit expectations of related companies; ③ Finally, according to the accurate identification index of asset allocation and valuation cost performance-the yield difference between stocks and bonds, the yield difference between Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stocks and bonds hit the extreme value of +2X standard deviation before the Spring Festival, and then the index weakened. At present, it is at the position of +1X standard deviation ~ mean value, and the cost performance is still not high. Rhythm judgment: Liquidity shocks are expected to start in AugustTianfeng Securities said that the industrial cycle and prosperity determine the medium-term trend and direction of the growth sector, and pursuing high prosperity is the unchanging \"philosophy\" of the A-share market.The study found that the penetration rate is 5%-30%, which is the best stage for Davis to double-click, such as the current new energy vehicles. In this process, any macro external shocks may be opportunities for reallocation.According to Tianfeng Securities, in terms of penetration rate, the growth industry continues to enjoy a valuation premium. After the industry ends the introduction period and enters the growth period (threshold 5-10%), the stock price and valuation rise rapidly; After entering the maturity stage (threshold 30-50%), the valuation will be digested over a longer period of time.Taking new energy vehicles as an example, according to the IEA pure electric + plug-in hybrid caliber, as of 2020, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is 5.7%, and that in Europe is only 10%. According to domestic statistics, as of 2021H1, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 12%, which is still increasing rapidly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f07669d4b806d5cfca28a7f26235fa57\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Regarding whether the short-term sentiment of the GEM is overheated, the agency said that it can be measured by the turnover rate of the liquid market value of the GEM Composite Index. More than 5% is a short-term peak sign, which is currently around 4.1%.However, TF Securities also pointed out that in the short term, macro external shocks such as liquidity determine the rhythm of the growth sector:In a shorter range (quarterly, monthly), in addition to its own industrial cycle driving factors, the growth sector will also be affected by market sentiment and marginal changes in the liquidity environment. Taking DR007 to measure the liquidity of the financial system, taking the bull market of technology stocks from 2013 to 2015 and since 2020 as an example, most of the time, when the central bank increases its investment and inter-bank interest rates fall, strong sectors tend to accelerate; When the liquidity margin tightens, such as during the two money shortages in 2013, May-June in 2020 and the beginning of this year, strong sectors will underperform the broader market in stages.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37972e0d6d359381e0d3ad228c8522a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tianfeng believes that the next external shock will be the focus, the inflection point of US dollar liquidity, or the biggest gray rhinoceros in the second half of the year:Regarding the two key factors of TGA pressure drop rhythm and QE shrinkage timing, the former may see the inflection point of liquidity release after August, while the latter may enter the expected fermentation window period in the middle and late third quarter, and enter the official reduction window in the first quarter of next year.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635128\">天风证券</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{"601162":"天风证券"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635128","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179578354","content_text":"在2021年A股市场中期策略中，天风证券表示，继续看好A股拥有硬核科技的相关产业，同时继续看淡沪深300和上证50。\n天风证券分析师刘晨明等认为，硬科技的盛宴可能演绎到极致，产业周期和景气度决定成长板块的中期趋势和方向，不过宏观外部冲击影响成长股的节奏，预计冲击主要从8月开始。\n趋势研判：硬科技的盛宴\n天风证券指出，未来中期维度的宏观政策变量假设围绕一个核心：从“效率优先”到“兼顾公平”：\n\n 在此背景下，政策主线基本清晰——反垄断、反腐败、压制地产和地方政府的杠杆、提高居民可支配收入（降低教育、医疗、住房等生活必须成本）；同时大力支持高端制造业（发展战略新兴产业）、扶持中小微企业（保就业、保民生）。\n\n天风证券表示，以上政策脉络，均指向一类资产，即高端制造业（新能源、半导体、军工等板块）。市场可能将硬科技的盛宴演绎到极致，估值贵贱在业绩的非线性上行面前可能不值一提。在确定性的产业趋势面前，任何宏观扰动可能都是再配置的机会：\n\n 在绝对高增速面前（前三行），当前估值的贵贱对未来涨跌幅没有明显区分度（产业或者业绩非线性上行可以很快消化高估值）。但0-30%的增长区间（中间三行），估值高低对超额收益排名影响较大，即稳定增长的公司需要考虑估值的贵贱。\n \n\n同时，天风证券指出，近些年融资环境较明显的偏向新兴产业与制造业。2021年上半年，电子、机械、医药、汽车、化工、电气设 备、计算机，这几个行业的融资金额（IPO+定增）占到全市场的54%。\n\n另一方面，天风证券表示，当前的好公司未必是未来的好股票，继续看淡沪深300和上证50：\n\n ①较高的全球资金回报率目标压制了国内长久期资产的估值；②国内继续压降地产和地方政府的杠杆，对相关公司盈利预期也不利；③最后，根据大类资产配置和估值性价比的精准识别指标——股债收益差，沪深300股债收益差在春节前触及+2X标准差的极值，随后指数走弱，目前处于+1X标准差~均值位置，性价比仍然不高。\n\n节奏判断：流动性冲击预计从8月开始\n天风证券表示，产业周期和景气度决定成长板块的中期趋势和方向，追逐高景气是A股市场不变的“哲学”。\n研究发现，渗透率在5%-30%，是戴维斯双击的最佳阶段，比如当前的新能源汽车。在此过程中，任何宏观外部冲击，可能都是再配置的机会。\n据天风证券，以渗透率衡量，成长期行业持续享受估值溢价。行业结束导入期而进入成长期后（阈值5-10%）， 股价和估值快速上行；步入成熟期之后（阈值30-50%），将在较长时间内进行估值消化。\n以新能源车为例，根据IEA纯电动+插电混动口径，截止2020年中国新 能源车渗透率为5.7%，欧洲也仅10%。以国内统计口径，截止 2021H1，新能源车渗透率达到12%，仍在快速提升中。\n\n对于创业板的短期情绪是否过热，该机构表示，可以用创业板综指流动市值换手率来衡量，超过5%为短期见顶标志，目前在4.1%左右。\n不过，天风证券也指出，短期来看，流动性等宏观外部冲击决定了成长板块的节奏：\n\n 在更短的区间（季度、月度），成长板块除了自身产业周期驱动因素以外，也会受到市场情绪、流动性环境边际变化等方面影响。以DR007衡量金融体系流动性，以2013-2015以及2020年以来的科技股牛市为例，大多数时候，当央行投放力度加大，银行间利率走低，强势板块往往会出现加速行情；而当流动性边际收紧，如13年两次钱荒期间、20年5-6月和今年初，强势板块也会阶段性跑输大盘。\n\n\n天风认为，接下来外部冲击是焦点，美元流动性拐点，或是下半年最大的灰犀牛：\n\n 对于TGA压降节奏、QE缩量时点这两个关键因素，前者可能在8月之后见到流动性释放的拐点，后者可能在三季度中后期进入预期发酵窗口期、明年一季度进入正式减量窗口。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"601162":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}