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Terrens
2021-06-30

Good stocks fall out of the golden pit, why do you choose to cut the meat?

近期，A股市场持续分化，消费、医药、科技三大主线依旧向好，其他不少板块却震荡不已，尤其是里面一些龙头个股，明明是人人看好的好公司，却跌个不停，持续考验着投资者的信心。面对好股票持续下跌，越来越多的投

Good stocks fall out of the golden pit, why do you choose to cut the meat?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Kenwen
·2022-04-28
short那些漲了很多然後離開均線的，不要去猜頂，看蠟燭才去空，或者下跌趨勢到壓力位。止損放在前一根上引或陰線，我每次做空賺錢然後反手做多，多單一直虧sohai哈哈
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- TerrensReplying toKenwen:
  😆Oil 104 ma
  2022-04-29
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- KenwenReplying toTerrens:
  pancing???
  2022-04-29
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- Terrens:
  Ok
  2022-04-28
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Kenwen
·2021-09-22
Now market sell covered call and sell put every week better [笑哭] slowly slowly gain
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- KenwenReplying toTerrens:
  Gg [财迷]
  2021-09-23
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- Terrens:
  Haha
  2021-09-22
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- Terrens:
  Haha
  2021-09-23
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Kenwen
·2022-06-06
waaa don't go daily quest liao?can collect coins leh [Miser]
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- Terrens:
  😂Lazy do le buy oil
  2022-06-06
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Kenwen
·2021-09-24
Gg power sial, i bought at 6.3 fuelcell earn money sial, can hv a look. But short term play la,
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- Terrens:
  Ok
  2021-09-26
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- Terrens:
  [笑哭]i less play le long hold only
  2021-09-24
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- Terrens:
  K
  2021-09-25
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Kenwen
·2022-05-21
New time low habis
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- KenwenReplying toTerrens:
  gg earn money [Miser] pocket tebal sial
  2022-05-23
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- Terrens:
  Haha i go vacation, bad for stock not this time
  2022-05-22
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Kenwen
·2022-05-18
told u, u sell liao mesti up [LOL]
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- TerrensReplying toKenwen:
  😂U nt say up
  2022-05-19
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- KenwenReplying toTerrens:
  don't wait me liao, I continue short [Miser] [Miser]
  2022-05-19
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- TerrensReplying toKenwen:
  😂Wait u there, 10th June Fomc
  2022-05-18
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Kenwen
·2022-05-06
short short short
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- Terrens:
  Gg
  2022-05-06
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Kenwen
·2022-04-30
lai liao lai liao
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- TerrensReplying toKenwen:
  😆
  2022-05-01
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- KenwenReplying toTerrens:
  this week lai liao..up up
  2022-05-01
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- Terrens:
  Ok
  2022-04-30
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Kenwen
·2022-04-27
short liao don't wait liao
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- Terrens:
  😂 Scary leh
  2022-04-27
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Kenwen
·2022-04-26
fake or real hope? [Sly]
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- Terrens:
  Fake
  2022-04-26
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Kenwen
·2022-04-22
ur time see me earn liao [Miser]
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- TerrensReplying toKenwen:
  😂
  2022-04-24
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- KenwenReplying toTerrens:
  nice one liao, see u in Holland haha
  2022-04-23
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- Terrens:
  Gg
  2022-04-23
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Kenwen
·2022-04-20
habis? Netflix habis
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- Terrens:
  K
  2022-04-21
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- Terrens:
  All up i no Netflix
  2022-04-20
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Kenwen
·2022-04-14
lai le lai le
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- Terrens:
  K
  2022-04-15
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- Terrens:
  Lol
  2022-04-14
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Kenwen
·2022-03-30
day day up day day profit
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- Terrens:
  Haha
  2022-03-30
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Kenwen
·2021-10-06
Bitcoin lai liao
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- KenwenReplying toTerrens:
  K
  2021-10-07
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- Terrens:
  K
  2021-10-07
  Reply
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- Terrens:
  K
  2021-10-06
  Reply
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Kenwen
·2021-09-21
Oh lin now, [喷血]
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- Terrens:
  Haha all gg stop buy
  2021-09-21
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Kenwen
·2022-05-24
haha I long jpm, today added more shares, avg price around 120 ,that day u intro me black rock , now I recommend jpm [Grin]
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Kenwen
·2022-05-27
lai lo, Hong Kong stock lo [Miser]
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Kenwen
·2022-06-13
k
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Kenwen
·2022-05-30
k
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The three main lines of consumption, medicine, and technology are still improving, while many other sectors are fluctuating, especially some leading stocks, which are obviously good companies that everyone is optimistic about, but they keep falling. Continue to test investors' confidence.Faced with the continuous decline of good stocks, more and more investors choose to cut their meat, because they really can't stand the inner suffering, hoping that after cutting their meat, it will be over. Psychologically, you may get temporary relief, but you can't hold good stocks. In the long run, investing and getting rich will become empty talk.A-share industry differentiationStrictly speaking, the bull market since 2019 is only a bull market for some industries, and many industries are in a bear market.Taking the ten-year trend since 2010 as the measurement range, there are still many industries whose P/E quantile is lower than 10%, that is, the P/E level is lower than 90% of the trading days in the past ten years, and it is at the bottom of the valuation range; At the same time, there are also some industries whose P/E quantile reaches or even exceeds 90%, which is at the top of the valuation range.On June 23, 2021, the P/E quantiles of the five industries of real estate (0.2%), architectural decoration (1.7%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (5.9%), media (9%), and non-bank finance (9.4%) were all lower than 10%. At the same time, the P/E quantiles of food and beverage (95.1%), leisure services (89.7%), and automobiles (89.7%) were around 90%, showing obvious polarization.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5a5386dd588efa779e3aa097423dd6\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Putting aside A-shares, let's first discuss a question from the perspective of investment philosophy. As an investor, do you agree with the following view, that is, in the long run, buying and holding industries with low P/E will significantly perform better than buying and holding industries with high P/E.As far as the idea theory is concerned, I believe many investors recognize it. Everyone believes that \"buying at an underestimate and holding it for a long time\" is the only way to make money through investment. This is why many people call themselves value investors.But if we return to the reality of A-shares, the current P/E in real estate, architectural decoration, non-bank finance and other industries are at historical lows. Are you willing to buy now and hold it for a long time?I believeOnce it returns to reality, many people will hesitate, because everyone can easily find a lot of reasons to look down on these industries.For example, in the real estate and building decoration industries, investors will say that the big logic is broken due to factors such as housing for living and not speculation, and the aging population; Another example is the insurance industry. Everyone thinks that the downward trend of long-term interest rates suppresses the investment income of insurance companies, and the Internet makes the competition of insurance products transparent, which will lower the underwriting profits of insurance products, and so on.Similarly, from the perspective of investment philosophy, everyone praises Buffett's \"fear when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful\" and deeply agrees with it; However, under the financial crisis in 2008, the stock market fell so hard that people were vomiting. When Buffett issued a document calling on everyone to buy stocks, few people responded, because in the specific market environment at that time, everyone could easily find a bunch of reasons to be bearish.It can be seen that buying or holding stocks that are not favored by the market is never easy.\"This time is different\"Many investment gurus have said the same thing. The five most expensive words in investment are \"this time is different\".The Dutch tulip bubble in the 17th century was the most influential recorded speculative bubble event in human history, and people learned many lessons from it, including that any bubble will burst; In the South China Sea bubble incident 100 years later, investors thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt; Until the Internet speculative bubble in the 1990s, investors still thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt.This is true during the bubble period, and so is the panic phase.Talking about ideas in terms of ideas, investors believe in mean reversion, believe that trees will not grow to the sky, believe that others are greedy and I am afraid, and others are afraid and I am greedy; But when returning to investment reality, you can always find various reasons to convince yourself that \"this time is different\" until you pay a huge price.Three or five years later, everyone will forget the lesson again and continue the story of \"this time is different\", repeatedly.Only a few people can jump out of this strange circle and maintain stable investment returns for a long time. These investors rely on believing in common sense and mean reversion. Especially at a specific point in time, do not dwell on the optimistic or pessimistic views of the mainstream of the market, but look at the problem from a higher level and a farther perspective, so as to move against the trend. As Peter Lynch put it;\"Whenever I feel worried and disappointed about the current big picture, I try to focus on the'even bigger picture '. If you expect yourself to maintain confidence in the stock market, you must understand the concept of'bigger picture'. The'bigger picture 'is to look at the stock market from a longer and longer perspective.\" From this passage, it can be seen that Peter Lynch didn't convince himself from a rational or logical point of view that the current situation was not worthy of worry. On the contrary, he also thought that the situation was worrying and disappointing. In order not to be influenced by this emotion, he used a longer and farther perspective to convince himself not to be afraid.In the final analysis,When the market falls into panic, outstanding investors do not refute the market from facts, but broaden their eyes, defeat short-term rationality with long-term rationality, and defeat panic with simple common sense.Going back to A-shares, if an investor holds insurance stocks, the current P/E of the insurance sector is at the bottom of ten years (0.9%). From the perspective of long-term mean reversion, now is the best time to hold firmly and wait for a reversal. However, if we focus on the fundamentals of the industry, many problems have not been answered in the short term, and there is no hope for the stock price to fall. It seems that \"the bottom of this valuation is different.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c593b63faa09c6219f83f6c2be0f54\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In fact, it is precisely because it is often difficult to make choices purely from the level of logical analysis that investors need to rely on the investment system to assist in decision-making.Jump out of a logical dead endAny investment system contains many principles of mechanical operation. It is by relying on these principles that investors can jump out of the dead end of logic and grasp the bigger situation.Under the value investment system, mean reversion is the core belief. When fundamentals and market sentiment are at odds with it, value investors should stand on the side of mean reversion, otherwise they will not be able to have the courage to hold against the trend.For example, during the financial crisis in 2008, there was no hope in the fundamentals, and the stock market plummeted. At this time, value investors bought at the bottom, not seeing hope from the Fed's rescue policy, but based on the belief of \"mean reversion\". Mechanical buying. To put it bluntly, it is not because I have a lot of confidence, but purely because the stock market has fallen too badly, so I bought it.Howard Marks once recalled this history. He had a product with leverage. At the worst of the crisis, he once raised supplementary funds from a pension institution. Howard started from the historical average and explained to investors the winning rate of capital injection at this time. As a result, he was repeatedly asked, \"What if the situation was worse?\"Obviously, investors at this time no longer care about the historical average performance, and began to pursue 100% certainty in extreme market environments, giving up the most basic odds thinking. No one can guarantee 100% certainty. As a result, Howard failed to raise funds, so he had to supplement the funds out of his own pocket.In hindsight, Howard made a lot of money, but he stressed that being correct afterwards did not mean that the decision was 100% correct beforehand. All he can grasp when making decisions is a firm belief in reversion to the mean. He firmly believes that buying at that time will have a very high winning rate.For investors,Under no circumstances can you go into a logical dead end because of the extravagance of 100% certainty. What really matters is to always be skeptical. When pessimism breeds greater pessimism, investors need to rely on skepticism to summon optimism; When optimistic situations breed greater optimism, it is also necessary to rely on skepticism to summon pessimism.Similarly, investors in current A-share sectors such as insurance, when the sector P/E is close to the bottom of history, if they are still struggling with the short-term performance of fundamentals, isn't it unrealistic to pursue 100% certainty? What we really need to do at this time is to embrace skepticism, use skepticism to summon optimism, hold firmly with the belief that \"if we fall too much, we will inevitably rise back\", and even buy against the trend.The market is sluggish, but it is a friend of value investingNo matter what genre, making money in stock trading is inseparable from four words: buy low and sell high. From the perspective of value investment, the fundamentals corresponding to buying low and selling high must be short-term pessimism and long-term optimism, so as to ensure that the price is low when buying in front and high when selling later. Therefore, the market is sluggish, which is a friend of value investing.When the stock you hold keeps falling, check its fundamentals and repeatedly judge the medium and long-term development prospects. As long as the medium and long-term prospects are promising and the stock price falls, what falls is a buying opportunity.So, when you are right, learn to persist and be more patient. Finally, we conclude with an example given by Philip A. Fisher:\"We ask a man to look at the moon at 8 o'clock in the evening, and then tell him that with the passage of time, the moon will slide across the sky. He will gaze at the motion of the moon with great interest and concentration, but he can't feel it. So, he just watches it quietly. By 8:02, there was still no change in the position of the moon. After a minute, there was still no movement, and after another minute, everything remained the same, so he had to give up in disappointment. He didn't think it meaningless or worthless. But at 2 o'clock in the morning, when he looked up at the sky again, he found that the magical change that had made him impatient at 8: 04 pm finally appeared. \"","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Good stocks fall out of the golden pit, why do you choose to cut the meat?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGood stocks fall out of the golden pit, why do you choose to cut the meat?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n苏宁金融研究院2021-06-30 10:02\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRecently, the A-share market has continued to differentiate. The three main lines of consumption, medicine, and technology are still improving, while many other sectors are fluctuating, especially some leading stocks, which are obviously good companies that everyone is optimistic about, but they keep falling. Continue to test investors' confidence.Faced with the continuous decline of good stocks, more and more investors choose to cut their meat, because they really can't stand the inner suffering, hoping that after cutting their meat, it will be over. Psychologically, you may get temporary relief, but you can't hold good stocks. In the long run, investing and getting rich will become empty talk.A-share industry differentiationStrictly speaking, the bull market since 2019 is only a bull market for some industries, and many industries are in a bear market.Taking the ten-year trend since 2010 as the measurement range, there are still many industries whose P/E quantile is lower than 10%, that is, the P/E level is lower than 90% of the trading days in the past ten years, and it is at the bottom of the valuation range; At the same time, there are also some industries whose P/E quantile reaches or even exceeds 90%, which is at the top of the valuation range.On June 23, 2021, the P/E quantiles of the five industries of real estate (0.2%), architectural decoration (1.7%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (5.9%), media (9%), and non-bank finance (9.4%) were all lower than 10%. At the same time, the P/E quantiles of food and beverage (95.1%), leisure services (89.7%), and automobiles (89.7%) were around 90%, showing obvious polarization.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5a5386dd588efa779e3aa097423dd6\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Putting aside A-shares, let's first discuss a question from the perspective of investment philosophy. As an investor, do you agree with the following view, that is, in the long run, buying and holding industries with low P/E will significantly perform better than buying and holding industries with high P/E.As far as the idea theory is concerned, I believe many investors recognize it. Everyone believes that \"buying at an underestimate and holding it for a long time\" is the only way to make money through investment. This is why many people call themselves value investors.But if we return to the reality of A-shares, the current P/E in real estate, architectural decoration, non-bank finance and other industries are at historical lows. Are you willing to buy now and hold it for a long time?I believeOnce it returns to reality, many people will hesitate, because everyone can easily find a lot of reasons to look down on these industries.For example, in the real estate and building decoration industries, investors will say that the big logic is broken due to factors such as housing for living and not speculation, and the aging population; Another example is the insurance industry. Everyone thinks that the downward trend of long-term interest rates suppresses the investment income of insurance companies, and the Internet makes the competition of insurance products transparent, which will lower the underwriting profits of insurance products, and so on.Similarly, from the perspective of investment philosophy, everyone praises Buffett's \"fear when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful\" and deeply agrees with it; However, under the financial crisis in 2008, the stock market fell so hard that people were vomiting. When Buffett issued a document calling on everyone to buy stocks, few people responded, because in the specific market environment at that time, everyone could easily find a bunch of reasons to be bearish.It can be seen that buying or holding stocks that are not favored by the market is never easy.\"This time is different\"Many investment gurus have said the same thing. The five most expensive words in investment are \"this time is different\".The Dutch tulip bubble in the 17th century was the most influential recorded speculative bubble event in human history, and people learned many lessons from it, including that any bubble will burst; In the South China Sea bubble incident 100 years later, investors thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt; Until the Internet speculative bubble in the 1990s, investors still thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt.This is true during the bubble period, and so is the panic phase.Talking about ideas in terms of ideas, investors believe in mean reversion, believe that trees will not grow to the sky, believe that others are greedy and I am afraid, and others are afraid and I am greedy; But when returning to investment reality, you can always find various reasons to convince yourself that \"this time is different\" until you pay a huge price.Three or five years later, everyone will forget the lesson again and continue the story of \"this time is different\", repeatedly.Only a few people can jump out of this strange circle and maintain stable investment returns for a long time. These investors rely on believing in common sense and mean reversion. Especially at a specific point in time, do not dwell on the optimistic or pessimistic views of the mainstream of the market, but look at the problem from a higher level and a farther perspective, so as to move against the trend. As Peter Lynch put it;\"Whenever I feel worried and disappointed about the current big picture, I try to focus on the'even bigger picture '. If you expect yourself to maintain confidence in the stock market, you must understand the concept of'bigger picture'. The'bigger picture 'is to look at the stock market from a longer and longer perspective.\" From this passage, it can be seen that Peter Lynch didn't convince himself from a rational or logical point of view that the current situation was not worthy of worry. On the contrary, he also thought that the situation was worrying and disappointing. In order not to be influenced by this emotion, he used a longer and farther perspective to convince himself not to be afraid.In the final analysis,When the market falls into panic, outstanding investors do not refute the market from facts, but broaden their eyes, defeat short-term rationality with long-term rationality, and defeat panic with simple common sense.Going back to A-shares, if an investor holds insurance stocks, the current P/E of the insurance sector is at the bottom of ten years (0.9%). From the perspective of long-term mean reversion, now is the best time to hold firmly and wait for a reversal. However, if we focus on the fundamentals of the industry, many problems have not been answered in the short term, and there is no hope for the stock price to fall. It seems that \"the bottom of this valuation is different.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c593b63faa09c6219f83f6c2be0f54\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In fact, it is precisely because it is often difficult to make choices purely from the level of logical analysis that investors need to rely on the investment system to assist in decision-making.Jump out of a logical dead endAny investment system contains many principles of mechanical operation. It is by relying on these principles that investors can jump out of the dead end of logic and grasp the bigger situation.Under the value investment system, mean reversion is the core belief. When fundamentals and market sentiment are at odds with it, value investors should stand on the side of mean reversion, otherwise they will not be able to have the courage to hold against the trend.For example, during the financial crisis in 2008, there was no hope in the fundamentals, and the stock market plummeted. At this time, value investors bought at the bottom, not seeing hope from the Fed's rescue policy, but based on the belief of \"mean reversion\". Mechanical buying. To put it bluntly, it is not because I have a lot of confidence, but purely because the stock market has fallen too badly, so I bought it.Howard Marks once recalled this history. He had a product with leverage. At the worst of the crisis, he once raised supplementary funds from a pension institution. Howard started from the historical average and explained to investors the winning rate of capital injection at this time. As a result, he was repeatedly asked, \"What if the situation was worse?\"Obviously, investors at this time no longer care about the historical average performance, and began to pursue 100% certainty in extreme market environments, giving up the most basic odds thinking. No one can guarantee 100% certainty. As a result, Howard failed to raise funds, so he had to supplement the funds out of his own pocket.In hindsight, Howard made a lot of money, but he stressed that being correct afterwards did not mean that the decision was 100% correct beforehand. All he can grasp when making decisions is a firm belief in reversion to the mean. He firmly believes that buying at that time will have a very high winning rate.For investors,Under no circumstances can you go into a logical dead end because of the extravagance of 100% certainty. What really matters is to always be skeptical. When pessimism breeds greater pessimism, investors need to rely on skepticism to summon optimism; When optimistic situations breed greater optimism, it is also necessary to rely on skepticism to summon pessimism.Similarly, investors in current A-share sectors such as insurance, when the sector P/E is close to the bottom of history, if they are still struggling with the short-term performance of fundamentals, isn't it unrealistic to pursue 100% certainty? What we really need to do at this time is to embrace skepticism, use skepticism to summon optimism, hold firmly with the belief that \"if we fall too much, we will inevitably rise back\", and even buy against the trend.The market is sluggish, but it is a friend of value investingNo matter what genre, making money in stock trading is inseparable from four words: buy low and sell high. From the perspective of value investment, the fundamentals corresponding to buying low and selling high must be short-term pessimism and long-term optimism, so as to ensure that the price is low when buying in front and high when selling later. Therefore, the market is sluggish, which is a friend of value investing.When the stock you hold keeps falling, check its fundamentals and repeatedly judge the medium and long-term development prospects. As long as the medium and long-term prospects are promising and the stock price falls, what falls is a buying opportunity.So, when you are right, learn to persist and be more patient. Finally, we conclude with an example given by Philip A. Fisher:\"We ask a man to look at the moon at 8 o'clock in the evening, and then tell him that with the passage of time, the moon will slide across the sky. He will gaze at the motion of the moon with great interest and concentration, but he can't feel it. So, he just watches it quietly. By 8:02, there was still no change in the position of the moon. After a minute, there was still no movement, and after another minute, everything remained the same, so he had to give up in disappointment. He didn't think it meaningless or worthless. But at 2 o'clock in the morning, when he looked up at the sky again, he found that the magical change that had made him impatient at 8: 04 pm finally appeared. \"\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2YozTtjsIBm5X9KQ3AmlFg\">苏宁金融研究院</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2YozTtjsIBm5X9KQ3AmlFg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133732318","content_text":"近期，A股市场持续分化，消费、医药、科技三大主线依旧向好，其他不少板块却震荡不已，尤其是里面一些龙头个股，明明是人人看好的好公司，却跌个不停，持续考验着投资者的信心。\n面对好股票持续下跌，越来越多的投资者选择割肉，因为实在受不了内心煎熬，希望割肉之后一了百了。心理上也许得到一时的解脱，但好股票拿不住，长此以往，投资致富就成了一句空话。\nA股行业大分化\n严格意义上说，2019年以来的牛市，仅是部分行业的牛市，还有很多行业处于熊市行情中。\n以2010年以来的十年走势为计量区间，当前仍有不少行业市盈率的分位值低于10%，即市盈率水平低于十年来90%的交易日，处于估值区间底部；同时，也有一些行业市盈率分位值达到甚至超过90%，处于估值区间顶部。\n2021年6月23日，房地产（0.2%）、建筑装饰（1.7%）、农林牧渔（5.9%）、传媒（9%）、非银金融（9.4%）五个行业的市盈率分位值均低于10%，同时食品饮料（95.1%）、休闲服务（89.7%）、汽车（89.7%）三个行业的市盈率分位值处在90%左右，出现明显的两极分化。\n\n把A股放一边，我们先从投资理念上探讨一个问题，作为投资者，你是否认可以下观点，即：长期来看，买入并持有低市盈率的行业，业绩表现会明显超过买入并持有市盈率处于高位的行业。\n就理念论理念，我相信很多投资者都是认可的，大家都相信“低估买入并长期持有”是投资赚钱的不二法门，这也是很多人自称价值投资者的原因。\n但若我们回归A股现实，当前房地产、建筑装饰、非银金融等行业的市盈率处于历史低位，你是否愿意现在买入并长期持有呢？\n我相信一旦回归现实，很多人会犹豫起来，因为大家能轻易找出一大堆看衰这些行业的理由。比如房地产和建筑装饰业，投资者会说，受房住不炒、人口老龄化等因素影响，大逻辑坏掉了；再比如保险业，大家又认为，长期利率下行压制保险公司投资收益，互联网使保险产品竞争透明化，会拉低保险产品的承保利润，等等。\n同样，从投资理念上，大家对巴菲特的“在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候贪婪”大加赞赏，深以为然；但2008年金融危机之下，股市跌得令人发吐，巴菲特发文号召大家买入股票时，却响应者寥寥，因为具体到当时的市场环境，大家能轻易找到一堆看空的理由。\n可见，买入或持有不被市场看好的股票，从来就不是一件容易的事。\n“这次不一样”\n很多投资大师说过同样的话，投资中最昂贵的五个字就是“这次不一样”。\n17世纪的荷兰郁金香泡沫是人类历史上有记载的最具影响力的投机泡沫事件，人们从中学到了很多教训，包括任何泡沫都会破灭；100年之后的南海泡沫事件中，投资者认为“这次不一样”，结果泡沫照样破灭，大批投资者破产；一直到上世纪90年代的互联网投机泡沫，投资者依旧认为“这次不一样”，结果依旧是泡沫破灭，大批投资者破产。\n泡沫期如此，恐慌阶段也是如此。\n就理念谈理念，投资者相信均值回归，相信树不会长到天上，相信别人贪婪我恐惧、别人恐惧我贪婪；但回到投资现实时，总是能找到各种理由来说服自己，相信“这次不一样”，直至付出巨大代价。三五年后，大家又会忘记教训，继续着“这次不一样”的故事，周而复始。\n只有少数人能跳出这个怪圈，得以长期保持稳健的投资收益，这些投资者依靠的就是相信常识、相信均值回归。尤其在特定的时间点，不纠结于市场主流的乐观或悲观见解，而是从更高的层面、更远的视角来看问题，做到逆势而动。正如彼得·林奇所说：\n\n “每当我对目前的大局（big picture）感到忧虑和失望时，我就会努力让自己关注于‘更大的大局’（even bigger picture）。如果你期望自己能够对股市保持信心的话，你就一定要了解‘更大的大局’这个概念。‘更大的大局’是从更长更远的眼光来看股市。”\n\n从这段话里可以看出，彼得·林奇并非从理性或逻辑的角度说服自己当前局势不值得忧虑，相反，他也认为局面令人感到忧虑和失望，只是为不受这种情绪影响，他用更长更远的视角来说服自己不恐惧。\n归根结底，当市场陷入恐慌情绪时，卓越的投资者们并非从事实上去驳倒市场，而是把眼光拉长，用长期理性战胜短期理性，用简单常识战胜恐慌情绪。\n回到A股，如果一个投资者持有保险股，当前保险板块市盈率处于十年来历史底部（0.9%）。站在长期均值回归的视角，现在正是坚定持有、等待反转的最佳时点，但如果着眼于行业基本面，很多难题短期内还未见答案，股价阴跌还看不到希望，似乎“这次的估值底部不一样”。\n\n事实上，正是因为很多时候纯粹从逻辑分析层面不好抉择，投资者才需要依靠投资体系辅助决策。\n跳出逻辑死胡同\n任何一个投资体系，都含有很多机械操作的原则，正是依靠这些原则，投资者才得以从逻辑的死胡同中跳脱出来，把握更大的大局。\n在价值投资体系下，均值回归是最核心的信念，当基本面、市场情绪与之相左时，价值投资者应站在均值回归这一边，否则便不可能拥有逆势持有的勇气。\n比如2008年金融危机时，基本面看不到希望，股市更是一泻千里，此时的价值投资者抄底买入，并非从美联储救市政策中看到了希望，而是基于“均值回归”信念进行的机械式买入。说白了，并非因为本身产生了多大的信心，纯粹是因为股市跌得太惨了，所以出手买入。\n霍华德·马克斯曾回忆这段历史，他有一只产品带有杠杆，危机最严重的时候，他曾经向一家养老金机构募集补充资金。霍华德从历史均值出发，向投资者解释此时注资的胜率，结果被一再追问“如果情况更糟一些呢”。\n显然，此时的投资者已不在乎历史平均表现，在极端市场环境下开始追求100%的确定性，放弃了最基本的赔率思维。没有人能保证100%的确定性，结果霍华德募资失败，只好自掏腰包补充资金。\n事后来看，霍华德赚得盘满钵满，但他却强调，事后正确不代表事前决策100%地正确。他决策时所能把握的，只是对均值回归的坚定信念，他坚信当时买入会有极高的胜率。\n对投资者而言，任何情况下都不能因奢求100%的确定性而走入逻辑的死胡同，真正重要的是始终保持怀疑主义。当悲观情绪滋生更大的悲观情绪时，投资者需依靠怀疑主义来召唤乐观主义；当乐观情况滋生更大的乐观情绪时，也需要依靠怀疑主义来召唤悲观主义。\n同样，当前A股诸如保险等板块的投资者，在板块市盈率接近历史底部时，若还在纠结基本面的短期表现，何尝不是不切实际地追求100%的确定性呢。此时真正要做的是拥抱怀疑主义，用怀疑主义来召唤乐观主义，抱着“跌多了必然涨回去”的信念坚定持有，甚至逆势买入。\n行情低迷，是价值投资的朋友\n无论什么流派，炒股赚钱都离不开四个字：低买高卖。站在价值投资的角度看，低买高卖对应的基本面必然是短期悲观、长期看好，这样才能确保前面买入时价格低，后面卖出时价格高。所以，行情低迷，是价值投资的朋友。\n当你持有的股票跌跌不休时，检查其基本面，反复研判其中长期发展前景，只要中长期前景看好，股价下跌，跌出来的正是买入机会。\n所以，当你是对的时候，要学会坚持，多点耐心。最后，我们用菲利普·A·费雪举过的一个例子作为结束：\n\n “我们让一个人在晚上8时的时候去看看月亮，然后告诉他，随着时间的流逝，月亮会滑过天空。他会兴味盎然、聚精会神地去凝视月亮的运动，但却无法感受到月亮的运动。于是，他就这样凝神静气地看下去。\n\n\n 到了8时零2分，仍然看不到月亮的位置有什么变化。过了1分钟，还是没有任何动静，又过了1分钟，一切依然如故，于是他只好失望地放弃。\n\n\n 他觉得这种事没有任何意义，也没有任何价值。\n\n\n 但到了凌晨2时，再次仰望天空的他，却发现晚上8时零4分曾经让他等得不耐烦的神奇变化终于出现了。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"NUGT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5127,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":101467908,"commentId":"101467908","gmtCreate":1651102041191,"gmtModify":1663247987349,"authorId":3574500206068120,"author":{"id":3574500206068120,"idStr":"3574500206068120","authorId":3574500206068120,"name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary 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