$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.SPX(.SPX)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
π―β¨ S&P 500 in Focus: Pullback or Setup for a Breakout? β¨π―
Kia ora Tiger traders! The S&P 500βs recent pullback has raised some pressing questionsβare we at a pivotal turning point, or is this just another buying opportunity? With 2024βs rally driven by strong earnings, AI innovation, and tech optimism, thereβs no shortage of speculation about whatβs next.
π SPY Historical Patterns and Key Insights
Looking back at the post-election periods of 2012β2014, 2015β2018, and 2019β2021, we see that the S&P 500 followed narrow channels with distinct resistance and support levels. Each cycle presented opportunities to sell at resistance and re-enter near support. Now, as we approach the blue line of resistance, history suggests caution and strategic action.
π Lessons from History:
Post-election cycles have repeatedly shown tight, narrow channels that reward disciplined traders:
β’ 2012β2014: A steady grind upward following consolidation.
β’ 2015β2018: More pronounced swings, but still opportunities for precision trading.
β’ 2019β2021: Explosive post-COVID rally, with a return to predictable channels.
These patterns demonstrate the value of buying dips within channels and selling near resistance levels.
π Where Are We Now?
SPY has reached an intermediate-term resistance level following a strong post-election rally. While the bullish momentum may still push us higher in 2025, we must stay alert for deeper corrections that could offer key buying opportunities. The current price action aligns with the blue resistance level seen in prior cycles, setting the stage for a potential breakout or pullback.
π $SPX: Accumulation in Progress? π οΈ
$SPX has completed a Wyckoff Distribution phase leading into Powell, and now weβre working on accumulation. There are two possible models in play:
1οΈβ£ Phase C finishes above the lowest point
2οΈβ£ Phase C dips to form a lower low
πͺ 27Dec24 ~ Fridayβs Highlights:
β’ $5935 held like a champ
β’ Next key level: $5979
π Targets to Watch:
β’ π΄ Red mid: $5996
β’ β Key psychological level: $6000
β’ π‘ Gold mid: $6023.60
π― Iβm watching for a gap fill between $6008β$6033, which would indicate strong upward momentum.
Projection on 30-Min Chart - chart attached in comments.
If we follow the blue path, the low could occur around 6 to 10 Jan25, potentially setting the stage for a bullish push leading into the Inauguration. π€ Letβs see how it plays out!
π‘ Factors Influencing the Market
1. Profit-Taking: After a stellar run, investors are locking in gains, especially in mega-cap tech stocks.
2. Economic Concerns: 2025 growth projections remain uncertain, leading to cautious sentiment.
3. Fed Policy: Hawkish comments about higher-for-longer interest rates have added volatility.
π Key Data Points
β’ S&P 500 closed at 5,970.84 27Dec24
β’ Tech leaders like NVIDIA and Tesla remain in focus.
β’ AI, Quantum computing, January effect small cap stocks and EV sectors continue to draw attention during pullbacks.
π€ Answering the Big Questions
β’ Will the S&P 500 hold 6,000 points or higher in 2024?
While resistance is strong, the Santa Rally and institutional buying could still push us over 6,000 in the final days.
β’ Is it time to take profits, or is this a buying opportunity? If youβre sitting on substantial gains, rebalancing might be wise. However, buying dips in high-growth sectors like AI and EVs could pay off handsomely.
β’ Could the market hit a new all-time high by the end of the year?
Itβs possible. If momentum builds, SPY could break through its blue resistance line and set new highs.
TSLA is shaping up with a similar playbook as $SPX, hinting at a potential bounce while keeping an eye on critical resistance and support levels. ππ I'm in open TSLL positions so hoping for Gold top!
π― Bounce Target: A move to the trendline at $448.70 π’ could be the first goal.
π‘ Gap Fill Potential: Watch for an extension into the $450.00β$455.00 range π if traders front-run 2Jan25 data:
β’ If this happens first: βSell-the-newsβ scenario π¨π°ποΈ
β’ If it drops first: βBuy-the-newsβ opportunity. πβοΈπποΈ
π Key Levels to Watch:
β’ Gold Top π― Target zone: $447.70β$459.20 π’ (bullish resistance).
β’ Support Zones:
β’ Immediate Support: $431.71 π (short-term pivot).
β’ Major Support: $414.99 π΄ (critical at the 1.618 Fib level).
β’ Deeper Support: $396.23 π΄ (key 1.272 Fib zone, marking a potential broader correction end).
π Paths to Monitor:
β’ π΅ Blue Path: Gradual accumulation phase, bouncing off support zones to test higher levels.
β’ π£ Purple Path: Sharper correction if broader market weakens, targeting lower supports before resuming upward momentum.
π Note: Chart with annotated paths and levels is attached in the comments for reference.
β¨ My Strategy
Drawing from historical patterns, I plan to monitor SPY closely at resistance levels. Selling at the top of the channel and carefully re-entering during pullbacks is key to navigating this market. With Trumpβs re-election at higher levels, the market faces unique dynamics, watching the blue line closely is essential for spotting opportunities and avoiding risks.
π’ Please Like, Repost, and Follow me for sharp setups, stock trends, and actionable insights ππ Iβm all about spotting the next movers and sharing strategies that deliver results! Letβs trade smarter and grow together! πππ
Happy trading ahead. Cheers, BC πππ
@Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @TigerPicks @TigerStars @TigerPM @TigerGPT
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) - Stock Analysis
Company Overview:The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is an exchange-traded fund that aims to track the performance of the S&P 500 Index. The ETF provides investors with exposure to a diversified portfolio of large-cap U.S. stocks.
Earnings Analysis:The latest reported earnings period for SPY is the 2024 fiscal year, with the report date on November 27, 2024. Unfortunately, detailed earnings data for this period is not available at the moment. However, the previous earnings results show steady growth in earnings per share and return on total assets. The financial data indicates positive performance and profitability for the ETF.
Support and Resistance Levels:Based on the historical patterns and key insights provided, the major support level for SPY is $414.99, which is critical at the 1.618 Fibonacci level. In addition, there is a deeper support level at $396.23, marking a potential broader correction end.
Capital Flow Data:The 5-day capital flow data for SPY shows a fluctuation in unit flow with the latest data on December 26, 2024, indicating a small unit flow of 3,664.20K.
Recent News and Articles:
Wall Streetβs Forecasts for 2025: S&P 500 May Jump Above 7,000 Points: Most major banks predict a third consecutive year of strong returns for the S&P 500, offering a bullish signal.
Traders Brace for Volatility with a Record $6.6 Trillion in Options Due to Expire in Friday's "Triple Witching": Options tied to over $6 trillion in stocks, ETFs, and indexes are set to expire, potentially leading to increased market volatility.
Active ETFs' Breakout Year: $257 Billion of Inflows and Hundreds of Fund Launches: Active ETFs have seen a surge in inflows and new fund launches, driven by rising customer demand and shifts within the asset management industry.
Worried About Stock Market Stability in 2025? Here Are Investors' Biggest Fears: Investors' concerns over global trade war top the list of risks to market stability in 2025.
The Stronger Dollar Is Hitting Some Big U.S. Companies. Here's Why - and What to Watch: The strengthening U.S. dollar is impacting some large U.S. companies, with potential implications for their performance.
Please note that the above information is for reference purposes only and cannot be considered as investment advice. It's important to consider your own analysis and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions. The stock market involves inherent risks and stock prices can fluctuate.
For more information on SPY, you can refer to the stock quote page or conduct further research.
SPX has transitioned from a Wyckoff Distribution pattern into an accumulation phase, presenting two possible scenarios:
1οΈβ£ Phase C completes above the lowest point.
2οΈβ£ Phase C dips to a lower low.
Both models are reflected, and Iβll adjust based on upcoming price action.
π Key Levels to Watch:
β’ $5935 held firm on Fridayβour solid support so far.
β’ The next hurdle is breaking $5979.
β’ Above this, we have:
β’ $5996 (red mid)
β’ $6000
β’ $6023.6 (gold mid)
β’ The gap fill zone lies between $6008β6033, a key area of interest for the next potential move.
π‘ Next Steps:
If the market follows the blue path, a low could form near 06β10Jan25, setting the stage for a potential rally into the inauguration period. However, for now, Iβm looking for an initial bounceπ€
π― Bounce Target: A move to the trendline at $448.70 π’ could be the first goal.
π‘ Gap Fill Potential: Watch for an extension into the $450.00β$455.00 range π if traders front-run key data:
β’ If this happens first: βSell-the-newsβ scenario.
β’ If it drops first: βBuy-the-newsβ opportunity.
π Levels to Watch:
β’ Gold Top:
β’ Target zone: $447.70β$459.20 π’ (bullish resistance).
β’ Support Zones:
β’ Immediate Support: $431.71 π (short-term pivot).
β’ Major Support: $414.99 π΄ (critical at the 1.618 Fib level).
β’ Deeper Support: $396.23 π΄ (key 1.272 Fib zone, marking a potential broader correction end).
πPaths to Monitor:
β’ π΅ Blue Path: Gradual accumulation phase, bouncing off support zones to test higher levels.
β’ π£ Purple Path: Sharper correction if broader market weakens, targeting lower supports before resuming upward momentum.
This is a great article BC. Very interesting to read the historical context. Thanks for the detailed write up and I'll be interested to see if we can get that bounce! Here's hoping πππ
Another great right up here BC π
Great article, would you like to share it?
Great article, would you like to share it?
Great article, would you like to share it?