To The Moon

2024, which is calm but full of opportunities, is about to pass, although there may still be some meanings of fishing for the moon in the water to explore where the most likely market situation will appear next year. But relatively speaking, we expect that the difficulty of transactions in the coming year will increase, and there will be fewer opportunities to "pick up money" in major categories. Therefore, at this time point, it may be safer to prepare for the 2025 transaction with a relatively conservative thinking.

The troika created by the Biden administration is the foundation of transactions in 2024, which is why most of the time or in a prolonged cycle, long gold, Bitcoin, and U.S. stocks during this period are stable transactions. As the new Trump's second term is about to take office, there are few other details except that there seems to be a trend of liberalization in the encryption field. Coupled with its anti-globalization strategy and the Fed's relative hawk changes just discussed last week, we expect that the overall macro environment and certainty will be slightly worse next year. Outside the purely economic field, it seems that the variables brought by geopolitics will only be more rather than less in the future. These two pieces will lower Alpha's earnings expectations.

Of course, for traders, the importance of graphics and valuation itself is definitely higher, and in this area, it is also not ideal.

First of all, let's talk about gold. This variety we are optimistic about for N years, and it has touched the target price, which can also be understood as the ceiling of the medium-term stage. Even if there is no major reversal, long-term corrections and large callbacks are inevitable. Although short selling is in line with the future direction, short selling to make quick money is inevitably not as easy as long-term and medium-term investment. The trading opportunities of gold still exist next year, and it is expected that there will be more than 20% absolute fluctuation space. However, whether the rhythm and entry and exit points can be the key to making money.

Next let's look at US stocks. The logic and foundation of the perennial slow cattle seem to still be there, but it is still unknown whether the value already at a high level will be fully accepted by Trump. Without any adjustments, if the default stock index continues to rise steadily, how much room there will be in the next four years will not be under the overall control of the president. Repairing first and then rising, or because of the rapid adjustment of the black swan, are better opportunities for trading entry, and it is impossible to chase high. In addition, I would like to reiterate here that there is a high probability that Nvidia, the last speaker, will be "replaced", and a new leader will appear.

The third one looks at the crypto market. This was highlighted last week, so we won't spend more space introducing it. The key is still that cheap locations can intervene and seek cost-effective opportunities.

Fourth, look at commodities. This is the area where trading opportunities are most likely to arise in the coming year. After two years of sideways trading, oil prices need a wave of unilateral market to defend their title as the king of commodities. We tend to be more likely to suppress first and then rise.

Fifth, in the foreign exchange market, on the whole, we are still optimistic about the performance of the US dollar against most currencies. But if there is no great market panic, the US dollar and foreign exchange markets are not expected to have much room. Relatively speaking, the depreciation of the RMB is a clear direction. If the decline is repaired, you can look for the possibility of entering the market.

It can be seen that next year's general direction will be "empty" & gt; "Many". Although there are still differences in time factors and sequences, there are not many varieties and opportunities that can make money by simply investing or buying and holding. If you mainly focus on speculative trading, it will have little impact, even on your big stage. But if it is an investment idea, you must think well, sell within your own valuation range, and don't buy high-priced chips easily.

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