To The Moon

After a near-vertical rally, gold and silver were finally “punished” last Friday, with both plunging sharply in a single day. Silver, measured from its peak, even suffered a drawdown close to being cut in half. After such a violent round-trip, do ordinary investors still have a viable trading opportunity?​ From a volatility standpoint, the current environment is no longer suitable for the vast majority of retail and traditional precious-metals traders. Moves that used to take a full year can now happen in a single day or within a week. This kind of irrational volatility also means the old stop-loss logic and methods stop working. Whether you try to buy the dip or fade a rebound, there’s a high probability you’ll get stopped out. And if someone dares to skip a stop-loss to avoid getting wic

If there’s one clear focus in the futures market recently, it’s undoubtedly silver.But today, let’s take a step back from silver and zoom out for a broader perspective: Does the recent surge in gold and silver signal the start of a bull market in base metals? There’s a well-known commodity cycle that combines the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock with Jeremy Grantham’s concept of the “commodity supercycle launch sequence.” It goes like this: The early warning sign that an economic downturn is ending is a rise in gold and silver prices. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ Why? Because during late-stage slowdowns, real demand is weak and industrial commodities languish—so capital flows into safe-haven assets like precious metals. At the same time, central banks w

The “tariffs-for-Greenland” drama, which had markets on edge for days, quieted down Wednesday night after Trump’s latest “TACO” move. U.S. equity indices, having touched their 20-week moving average, bounced back as expected—thanks to a clean alignment of news flow and technical support.What is the “TACO trade”?It stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” a term coined in 2025 by Robert Armstrong, a columnist at the Financial Times. It describes a recurring pattern in Trump’s policy playbook since returning to office: his administration loudly announces aggressive measures—like steep tariffs on foreign nations—sparking market panic and sell-offs. But under pressure, it soon pauses, scales back, or reverses course, triggering a swift rally.This cycle has worked repeatedly in 2025. The recent

Last week, the upward momentum in precious metals ignored clear overbought signals on both daily and weekly timeframes. Gold and silver kept hitting fresh all-time highs, with silver firmly breaking above $ 100.This week, gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ has already climbed past the 5,000 mark, potentially opening the door to even more explosive gains.Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ is teetering on the edge of a major long-term trendline breakdown. If current support fails, the dollar could face a depreciation of 10% or more.On the news front, last week should have been dominated by easing geopolitical tensions—but investors weren’t buying it.Notably, the long-standing

The U.S. dollar has been unusually weak recently, and multiple signs suggest this choppy weakness may persist for a while longer. The real turning point is likely to fall somewhere between March and April this year. First, China’s official USD/CNY fixing was set around 6.9 today—previously it had been in the 7-handle. This is the strongest official RMB fixing since 2023, and with the official rate now back below 7, it indicates the dollar has indeed remained weak lately. The central bank apparently does not see a problem with setting the fixing this strong。 $USD/CNH(USDCNH.FOREX)$ Second, Bloomberg reported that India again sold a large amount of U.S. Treasuries over the most recent month. India’s U.S. Treasury holdings have now fallen to

Last week’s macro framework is still working this week, and Trump has kicked off yet another farce: he floated the idea of purchasing Greenland from Europe and also imposed tariffs on eight European countries that opposed him.​ The situation has become even more turbulent.Why Trump Threatened 11 Countries in Just Two Weeks: The Dollar on the Edge Tells the StoryThis is almost certainly not the last step in Trump’s external provocation, but it is very likely an important move within his broader foreign strategy.​Today, let’s take a little time to briefly discuss the logic behind the Greenland dispute.First, one point must be clarified: why is Trump deliberately stirring trouble in his own “backyard”?​ One day it’s Venezu

Trump’s Tariff Gambit to “Buy” Greenland—What’s at Stake?Trump is clearly in full midterm-election mode—and since the start of the year, he’s delivered a new headline every week. First a strike on Venezuela, then brinkmanship with Iran, now talk of “buying” Greenland. Each move has jolted markets to some degree.The pattern is unmistakable: these regions matter because of what lies beneath them. Venezuela sits just 230 kilometers from U.S. shores and holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Its heavy crude perfectly complements refining capacity along the Gulf Coast.Greenland, though deep in the Arctic, is only 320 kilometers from Alaska—yet over 3,000 kilometers from Copenhagen. Geographically, it’s more America’s backyard than Denmark’s. And beneath its ice lie vast mineral deposits

Gold and silver gapped higher to fresh record highs, but the weekly time frame is sending mixed signals.Last week, precious metals continued their upward momentum, led by silver. At the start of this week, gold gapped sharply higher to a new all-time high, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland. Both fundamental (news-driven) and technical factors are currently supporting further upside. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ From a timing perspective, the "ninth signal" on the weekly chart is notably more pronounced in silver’s price behavior. Historically, during the previous five occurrences of this signal—even when silver was firmly entrenched in a strong bullish trend—it still experienced some degree of correction or sideway

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1.Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ During Asian trading hours on Friday (January 16), gold maintained its intraday pullback, currently hovering near $4,598, down $20 for the session. On the H4 chart, gold fluctuates near the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), with the upward momentum of this moving average showing signs of weakening. Meanwhile, the 100-period and 200-period SMAs retain their bullish bias, with gold holding above these moving averages. Initial support lies near the 100-period SMA at $4476.27. Additionally, momentum indicators are trending lower around the midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has weakened to around 55, reflecting ins

At this point, it finally feels possible to roughly tell what Trump is trying to do.He first took the extraordinary step of seizing Venezuela’s president, threw Venezuela into turmoil, and wrecked its economy. He then threatened to launch military strikes against Iran, and just the day before yesterday issued a security alert telling all U.S. citizens in Iran to leave immediately, building momentum as if a real military operation were about to begin. A simple tally of the countries Trump has threatened or actually acted against since the start of January 2026 is startling: in just half a month, the U.S. president has made threatening statements or taken coercive actions targeting 11 countries/regions.So what is he trying to do? The answer lies in the U.S. Dollar Index standing at the edge

Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ prices surged in Asian trading, continuing to set new records! It successfully broke through the psychological barrier of 4600, reaching a high of around 4601.1! This signal is very clear; the upward trend will continue! Meanwhile, the technical pullback held the important support level of 4550. The upcoming European and New York markets will continue to focus on buy orders! New highs will be continuously set this week! Strategy: Buy: around 4560-65, TP: 4620, SL: 4548ImageFor SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most.With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only.The consequences of striking Iran?If America follows through, markets w

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ prices fell nearly 1% on Wednesday (January 7), partly due to profit-taking after recent gains. Additionally, optimistic U.S. services sector activity data and resilient labor market data offset geopolitical risks, contributing to the nearly 1% drop.Gold closed down $37.89, or 0.84%, at $4456.32 on Wednesday; it had earlier plunged as much as 1.7% to $4422.89 per ounce.Gold prices retreated from $4500 as strong U.S. economic data dampened safe-haven demand. Gold prices fell nearly 1% on Wednesday after the ISM Services PMI unexpectedly rose, suggesting more robust U.S. economic momentum.Key U.S. economic data for the remainder of the week includes

Daylight robbery has descended upon America and it's government. MAGA is at the expense of other countries in the guise of upholding security....

At the start of the new year, the drama keeps coming. Over the weekend, the United States launched an operation, directly apprehending Venezuela’s president and bringing him to the U.S. for trial; the speed of the action and the precision of the intelligence once again demonstrated America’s military capabilities. Although there are rumors that the operation went so smoothly because there was an insider, being able to secure an insider is itself a reflection of military strength. Since the incident both occurred and concluded over the weekend (many recent military operations share this style: short duration, clear objectives, and no sustained escalation in responses from either side), for financial markets it would likely be digested within the few hours from Monday’s open through the Asia

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ On Wednesday, key US economic data will be released, with investors focusing on December's ADP employment change, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and November's JOLTS job openings.Following this, the market will focus on Friday's US December non-farm payrolls report, with an expected increase of 60,000 jobs, slightly lower than the 64,000 added in the previous month.According to LSEG data, traders are already pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year. In a low-interest-rate environment, non-interest-bearing gold is typically more attractive. 2.Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$

The biggest holiday topic is America's move against Maduro, with most analyses covering directly affected assets. This piece focuses on the hidden agenda: dollar dominance.​Common views hold that the US (under Trump) seeks Venezuela's rich oil and commodity resources. Compared to the 1980s oil wars' brute force, today's tactics lack "martial virtue" but prove more effective.​Yet, as ancient wisdom states, subduing the enemy without fighting is the ultimate strategy—direct intervention signals a loss of control.​(Dollar index performance over the past 60 years)​Latin America's Dollar DependenceFor decades, South America and even Canada's North America have fallen fully under US influence. Through debt and the dollar—the two financial weapons—Latin countries have played the role of beasts of

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ Gold prices surged in Asian trading on Monday (January 5), breaking through the $4,400/ounce mark. US President Donald Trump issued a new warning that Venezuela's post-Maduro leadership must abide by certain conditions or face "very heavy costs."The US launched a military strike against Venezuela early Saturday morning (January 3), detaining President Nicolás Maduro and announcing a complete US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry.Gold reached a high of $4,421.53/ounce in Asian trading on Monday, a surge of $89 on the day. Silver prices also jumped nearly 4%. 2.The first full trading week of 2026 is about to begin, and the market will quickly switc

After a near-vertical rally, gold and silver were finally “punished” last Friday, with both plunging sharply in a single day. Silver, measured from its peak, even suffered a drawdown close to being cut in half. After such a violent round-trip, do ordinary investors still have a viable trading opportunity?​ From a volatility standpoint, the current environment is no longer suitable for the vast majority of retail and traditional precious-metals traders. Moves that used to take a full year can now happen in a single day or within a week. This kind of irrational volatility also means the old stop-loss logic and methods stop working. Whether you try to buy the dip or fade a rebound, there’s a high probability you’ll get stopped out. And if someone dares to skip a stop-loss to avoid getting wic

If there’s one clear focus in the futures market recently, it’s undoubtedly silver.But today, let’s take a step back from silver and zoom out for a broader perspective: Does the recent surge in gold and silver signal the start of a bull market in base metals? There’s a well-known commodity cycle that combines the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock with Jeremy Grantham’s concept of the “commodity supercycle launch sequence.” It goes like this: The early warning sign that an economic downturn is ending is a rise in gold and silver prices. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ Why? Because during late-stage slowdowns, real demand is weak and industrial commodities languish—so capital flows into safe-haven assets like precious metals. At the same time, central banks w

Last week, the upward momentum in precious metals ignored clear overbought signals on both daily and weekly timeframes. Gold and silver kept hitting fresh all-time highs, with silver firmly breaking above $ 100.This week, gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ has already climbed past the 5,000 mark, potentially opening the door to even more explosive gains.Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ is teetering on the edge of a major long-term trendline breakdown. If current support fails, the dollar could face a depreciation of 10% or more.On the news front, last week should have been dominated by easing geopolitical tensions—but investors weren’t buying it.Notably, the long-standing

The U.S. dollar has been unusually weak recently, and multiple signs suggest this choppy weakness may persist for a while longer. The real turning point is likely to fall somewhere between March and April this year. First, China’s official USD/CNY fixing was set around 6.9 today—previously it had been in the 7-handle. This is the strongest official RMB fixing since 2023, and with the official rate now back below 7, it indicates the dollar has indeed remained weak lately. The central bank apparently does not see a problem with setting the fixing this strong。 $USD/CNH(USDCNH.FOREX)$ Second, Bloomberg reported that India again sold a large amount of U.S. Treasuries over the most recent month. India’s U.S. Treasury holdings have now fallen to

The “tariffs-for-Greenland” drama, which had markets on edge for days, quieted down Wednesday night after Trump’s latest “TACO” move. U.S. equity indices, having touched their 20-week moving average, bounced back as expected—thanks to a clean alignment of news flow and technical support.What is the “TACO trade”?It stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” a term coined in 2025 by Robert Armstrong, a columnist at the Financial Times. It describes a recurring pattern in Trump’s policy playbook since returning to office: his administration loudly announces aggressive measures—like steep tariffs on foreign nations—sparking market panic and sell-offs. But under pressure, it soon pauses, scales back, or reverses course, triggering a swift rally.This cycle has worked repeatedly in 2025. The recent

Last week’s macro framework is still working this week, and Trump has kicked off yet another farce: he floated the idea of purchasing Greenland from Europe and also imposed tariffs on eight European countries that opposed him.​ The situation has become even more turbulent.Why Trump Threatened 11 Countries in Just Two Weeks: The Dollar on the Edge Tells the StoryThis is almost certainly not the last step in Trump’s external provocation, but it is very likely an important move within his broader foreign strategy.​Today, let’s take a little time to briefly discuss the logic behind the Greenland dispute.First, one point must be clarified: why is Trump deliberately stirring trouble in his own “backyard”?​ One day it’s Venezu

At this point, it finally feels possible to roughly tell what Trump is trying to do.He first took the extraordinary step of seizing Venezuela’s president, threw Venezuela into turmoil, and wrecked its economy. He then threatened to launch military strikes against Iran, and just the day before yesterday issued a security alert telling all U.S. citizens in Iran to leave immediately, building momentum as if a real military operation were about to begin. A simple tally of the countries Trump has threatened or actually acted against since the start of January 2026 is startling: in just half a month, the U.S. president has made threatening statements or taken coercive actions targeting 11 countries/regions.So what is he trying to do? The answer lies in the U.S. Dollar Index standing at the edge

Gold and silver gapped higher to fresh record highs, but the weekly time frame is sending mixed signals.Last week, precious metals continued their upward momentum, led by silver. At the start of this week, gold gapped sharply higher to a new all-time high, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland. Both fundamental (news-driven) and technical factors are currently supporting further upside. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ From a timing perspective, the "ninth signal" on the weekly chart is notably more pronounced in silver’s price behavior. Historically, during the previous five occurrences of this signal—even when silver was firmly entrenched in a strong bullish trend—it still experienced some degree of correction or sideway

Trump’s Tariff Gambit to “Buy” Greenland—What’s at Stake?Trump is clearly in full midterm-election mode—and since the start of the year, he’s delivered a new headline every week. First a strike on Venezuela, then brinkmanship with Iran, now talk of “buying” Greenland. Each move has jolted markets to some degree.The pattern is unmistakable: these regions matter because of what lies beneath them. Venezuela sits just 230 kilometers from U.S. shores and holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Its heavy crude perfectly complements refining capacity along the Gulf Coast.Greenland, though deep in the Arctic, is only 320 kilometers from Alaska—yet over 3,000 kilometers from Copenhagen. Geographically, it’s more America’s backyard than Denmark’s. And beneath its ice lie vast mineral deposits

Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most.With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only.The consequences of striking Iran?If America follows through, markets w

At the start of the new year, the drama keeps coming. Over the weekend, the United States launched an operation, directly apprehending Venezuela’s president and bringing him to the U.S. for trial; the speed of the action and the precision of the intelligence once again demonstrated America’s military capabilities. Although there are rumors that the operation went so smoothly because there was an insider, being able to secure an insider is itself a reflection of military strength. Since the incident both occurred and concluded over the weekend (many recent military operations share this style: short duration, clear objectives, and no sustained escalation in responses from either side), for financial markets it would likely be digested within the few hours from Monday’s open through the Asia

The biggest holiday topic is America's move against Maduro, with most analyses covering directly affected assets. This piece focuses on the hidden agenda: dollar dominance.​Common views hold that the US (under Trump) seeks Venezuela's rich oil and commodity resources. Compared to the 1980s oil wars' brute force, today's tactics lack "martial virtue" but prove more effective.​Yet, as ancient wisdom states, subduing the enemy without fighting is the ultimate strategy—direct intervention signals a loss of control.​(Dollar index performance over the past 60 years)​Latin America's Dollar DependenceFor decades, South America and even Canada's North America have fallen fully under US influence. Through debt and the dollar—the two financial weapons—Latin countries have played the role of beasts of

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1.Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ During Asian trading hours on Friday (January 16), gold maintained its intraday pullback, currently hovering near $4,598, down $20 for the session. On the H4 chart, gold fluctuates near the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), with the upward momentum of this moving average showing signs of weakening. Meanwhile, the 100-period and 200-period SMAs retain their bullish bias, with gold holding above these moving averages. Initial support lies near the 100-period SMA at $4476.27. Additionally, momentum indicators are trending lower around the midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has weakened to around 55, reflecting ins

Silver experienced a significant drop last night. The sell-off erupted just after the CME raised margin requirements for silver futures. This move by the world's largest exchange by trading volume seems like an official endorsement of the view that "silver is currently overbought." Following the sudden liquidity tightening, silver futures fell over 10 points, causing a minor pullback in the US stock market's Christmas rally. Many are concerned: Is the uptrend in silver over? How likely is a continued sharp decline? Could it end the US stock market's Christmas rally as well?In fact, we warned about a potential silver drop in our previous analysis. I specifically highlighted the importance of the 5-day moving average for the main continuous silver futures contract. Theoretically, a short squ

After the policy outcomes from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were released, the market’s largest near-term risk window has largely passed.​Based on how price action has responded so far, the Santa rally has very likely begun; historically, it typically runs from late December into early January, and U.S. equities have a high probability of grinding higher with choppy gains during this period.​What’s more, while mega-cap tech looks expensive, the overall valuation of the equal-weight S&P 500 is not particularly stretched, so over the coming week it may be worth considering a strategy of selling weekly put options on Nasdaq futures with strikes below the 20-week moving average.​At the same time, it also makes sense to prepare in advance for a potential explosive move in commo

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ Gold prices surged in Asian trading on Monday (January 5), breaking through the $4,400/ounce mark. US President Donald Trump issued a new warning that Venezuela's post-Maduro leadership must abide by certain conditions or face "very heavy costs."The US launched a military strike against Venezuela early Saturday morning (January 3), detaining President Nicolás Maduro and announcing a complete US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry.Gold reached a high of $4,421.53/ounce in Asian trading on Monday, a surge of $89 on the day. Silver prices also jumped nearly 4%. 2.The first full trading week of 2026 is about to begin, and the market will quickly switc

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ On Wednesday, key US economic data will be released, with investors focusing on December's ADP employment change, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and November's JOLTS job openings.Following this, the market will focus on Friday's US December non-farm payrolls report, with an expected increase of 60,000 jobs, slightly lower than the 64,000 added in the previous month.According to LSEG data, traders are already pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year. In a low-interest-rate environment, non-interest-bearing gold is typically more attractive. 2.Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$

Be cautious: this week, both U.S. equities and the two most crowded assets—gold and silver—are sitting in a fragile equilibrium of “high prices + low volatility + high leverage.” On top of that, the headline calendar includes Quadruple witching day, a Bank of Japan rate hike, and the return of the previously paused U.S. nonfarm payrolls release—factors that make a meaningful volatility expansion highly likely. In such an environment, any one-way bet can easily be whipsawed as take-profit and stop-loss orders get triggered repeatedly.​In these conditions—especially before the Bank of Japan announces its policy decision—the priority should shift away from trying to be “right” on a single directional call. The focus should be on protecting earlier gains and controlling drawdowns, because the