To The Moon

Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ On the daily chart, gold continues to consolidate at elevated levels with an upward bias. Prices are trading above the major moving average system, indicating that the overall trend remains bullish. The $4,550 level serves as a key support zone, while $4,650 acts as a significant short-term resistance zone. A decisive break above this level could open up further upside potential. Looking at momentum indicators, while bullish momentum remains dominant, there are signs of a marginal slowdown, suggesting a decline in willingness

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Spot gold weakened slightly in early trading on Monday (April 27), falling as much as 0.65% to $4,672.20, as the US-Iran peace talks stalled, oil prices jumped more than 2% on Monday, inflation concerns resurfaced, expectations for a Fed rate hike this year rose slightly, and the US dollar index rose slightly, all putting pressure on gold prices. While the market continues to focus on further developments in the Middle East, its attention is shifting more towards this week's Fed rate decision. Prior to this, this week will also see rate decisions from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. In addition, this week will also see the release of key US data, including first-quarter GDP and March

Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis.With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.

First of all, wishing everyone a happy weekend!Currently, gold prices are in a stalemate between bulls and bears, at a crucial juncture. The weekly chart maintains a range-bound structure; the MACD bullish momentum is weakening but has not yet formed a death cross, requiring a breakout at key levels to clarify the trend. The daily chart trend has shifted from strong to weak, with prices breaking below short-term moving averages, and the MACD showing signs of a death cross, indicating that bearish momentum is being released. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are within a short-term downward channel, with rebounds repeatedly capped by the Bollinger Middle Band, exhibiting a "lower highs, more stable lows" range-bound structure with a slight downward bias. The MACD shows no significant volume

At present, global risk appetite across risk assets is still mainly driven by U.S. equities. As the marginal impact of Federal Reserve commentary has faded, the absolute dominant force shaping market sentiment remains the progress of the U.S.-Iran war. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指数2606(MES2606)$ Why do we say the Fed’s commentary has become less influential at the margin? The reason is simple. First, there is no certainty that the so-called new chair, Warsh, will actually be able to take office smoothly

Trump once believed he was the only one in the market capable of “drawing K-lines with words,” but it turns out Iran has learned the same trick. From last Friday to the beginning of this week, both sides have been locked in a tug-of-war over whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open and whether to extend ceasefire negotiations, each telling its own version of the story. Judging by market reactions, investors are largely in a passive, headline-driven mode: bullish news triggers risk-on buying, while negative developments lead to risk-off selling. Based on our analysis and judgment from last week, a delaying strategy remains the most likely scenario, with the key question being whether it is short-term or a more prolonged standoff.1.     Negotiation Tug-of-War: Tough Talk

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise.There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant.I. Can

I. Weekly Market Review: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ As of Friday (April 17th) in Asian trading, international gold has recorded its fourth consecutive week of gains, accumulating a rise of approximately 18% since the rebound began at the 50-week moving average. The overall trend this week was one of initial rise followed by a pullback: Early Week High:Gold prices rebounded from a low of $4644.35, reaching a high of around $4890. Mid-Week Pullback: After rising above $4870 in Asian trading on Wednesday, prices faced resistance and retreated, giving back some of the gains. Gold prices were capped by the $4800 psychological level. High-Level Consolidati

$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$On Thursday (April 16), spot gold prices held steady around $4,790 per ounce, nearly unchanged, after hitting a one-month high in the previous session. While US gold futures fell slightly by 0.3% to $4,808.30, the overall market sentiment has gradually recovered from the slump in March. This change is not an isolated event, but is closely linked to the dramatic turn of events in the Middle East—after the outbreak of the war between the US and Israel against Iran, gold prices were initially pressured by inflation concerns and tightening liquidity. However, President Trump's ceasefire declaration and positive signals from US-Iran peace negotiations are injecting strong momentum into the gold market. Inve

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Gold prices plunged on Wednesday (April 15), partly due to profit-taking by investors. Additionally, rising stock markets weakened safe-haven demand, and rising US Treasury yields contributed to the decline. Investors continued to assess the latest developments in the US and Iran, and their implications for the interest rate outlook. In early Asian trading on April 16, gold prices fluctuated upwards, reaching a high of around $4837.5, and are currently trading around $4820. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ 2 On Thursday (April 16) in Asian trading, despite ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, gold prices rose significantly as renewed efforts to resolve th

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Gold's upward trend accelerated, breaking through the $4,800 mark and subsequently surpassing the strong resistance at $4,857. The next resistance level is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,896. $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ Price action indicates that gold is currently trading near a four-day high, suggesting strengthening buying momentum; this is further supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which turned bullish two days ago.

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! On Monday (April 13), gold prices experienced a dramatic rollercoaster ride. Shocked by the complete breakdown of weekend peace talks between the US and Iran, gold prices initially plummeted by over 2%, hitting a low of $4639.65, the lowest since April 7. They then rebounded, ultimately closing down slightly by 0.2% at $4740.15. US gold futures also fell 0.4%, closing at $4767.40. $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ However, in early Asian trading on Tuesday (April 14), gold prices continued their overnight rebound, rising as much as 0.5% to $4765.55, demonstrating strong resilienc

The most closely watched development over the weekend was the progress in talks between the United States and Iran. Based on the weekend news flow, there has been some progress, but the core issues remain unresolved. Since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked a month ago, Gulf countries’ crude inventories are also nearing full capacity. If, during this two-week ceasefire window, the United States and Iran still fail to reach a better agreement that ensures safe passage through the strait, the market is likely to further lift long-term inflation sentiment, creating trading opportunities in the forward contracts of many commodities.I. Focus on the Forward Crude Oil ContractWhen this round of oil price gains first began, the market initially believed the blockade of the strait would be only a sho

$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows that gold prices have entered a consolidation phase after reaching previous highs, currently exhibiting a weak, high-level consolidation pattern. Key resistance levels are located at $4750 and $4800, while support levels are concentrated around $4600 and $4550. In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD shows signs of a bearish crossover at high levels, and the RSI has fallen from overbought territory, indicating weakening bullish momentum. On the H4 chart, gold's short-term trend shows a downward consolidation structure. The gap formed and failed to be quickly filled, indi

Current Market Position: Gold prices are stuck in a "can't fall, can't rise" pattern within the $4700-$4800 range. On the daily chart, the MACD histogram continues to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, the KDJ indicator's J value has entered a strong zone and is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a short-term need for consolidation. The 4-hour chart shows short-term moving averages turning downwards, with the price trading below the MA5/MA10. The MACD has turned from red to green, and the green histogram is gradually increasing in volume, indicating emerging bearish momentum. Key Price Levels for Bulls and Bears$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ Level | Direction | Price (USD/oz) | Explanation: Premium Resis

In fact, the two week window of de-escalation in the conflict has long been priced into capital market movements. Although a week ago the US and Iran were still trading harsh rhetoric, with the US even threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, after all that saber-rattling you may have noticed that crude oil did not register a new high. Moreover, the US one-year inflation expectations – which typically spike along with crude oil – and the 10-year Treasury yield – which is most sensitive to US equity moves – remained remarkably calm：  $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion(TYO)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$    In fact, the 10-yea

Pentagon Reshuffle Signals Ground War Last week, oil prices experienced a new round of surging—with single-week gains exceeding double digits—driven by President Trump's aggressive, pre-war mobilization-style remarks. Although a dramatic rescue of an American pilot took place over the weekend, the more critical focus remains the personnel upheaval within the upper echelons of the US military. From a logical standpoint, this could be a strategic move to install loyalists in preparation for an eventual full-scale conflict. Therefore, even if a "ground war" is not necessarily the optimal choice, the risk of its outbreak can no longer be ignored. According to public sources, at least three top military officials have been "reassigned" or "forced into retirement," including the high-ranking Arm

Market Overview This weekend coincided with China's Qingming Festival, and while overall news was quieter, international media was flooded with a barrage of unverified rumors. These ranged from President Trump falling suddenly ill to an imminent US-Iran negotiation agreement, and even a US ultimatum demanding Iran reach a deal or face escalated conflict. The strait blockade has persisted for a month, and although a few vessels are passing through, we remain far from a full reopening. Approaching Storage Limits As we enter April, the timeline previously projected by Goldman Sachs for Gulf nations' storage capacities to reach their limits is rapidly approaching. If normal navigation is not restored soon, the chain reaction across financial markets will inevitably intensify. Therefore, until

Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo

Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis.With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.

I. Weekly Market Review: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ As of Friday (April 17th) in Asian trading, international gold has recorded its fourth consecutive week of gains, accumulating a rise of approximately 18% since the rebound began at the 50-week moving average. The overall trend this week was one of initial rise followed by a pullback: Early Week High:Gold prices rebounded from a low of $4644.35, reaching a high of around $4890. Mid-Week Pullback: After rising above $4870 in Asian trading on Wednesday, prices faced resistance and retreated, giving back some of the gains. Gold prices were capped by the $4800 psychological level. High-Level Consolidati

At present, global risk appetite across risk assets is still mainly driven by U.S. equities. As the marginal impact of Federal Reserve commentary has faded, the absolute dominant force shaping market sentiment remains the progress of the U.S.-Iran war. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指数2606(MES2606)$ Why do we say the Fed’s commentary has become less influential at the margin? The reason is simple. First, there is no certainty that the so-called new chair, Warsh, will actually be able to take office smoothly

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise.There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant.I. Can

Trump once believed he was the only one in the market capable of “drawing K-lines with words,” but it turns out Iran has learned the same trick. From last Friday to the beginning of this week, both sides have been locked in a tug-of-war over whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open and whether to extend ceasefire negotiations, each telling its own version of the story. Judging by market reactions, investors are largely in a passive, headline-driven mode: bullish news triggers risk-on buying, while negative developments lead to risk-off selling. Based on our analysis and judgment from last week, a delaying strategy remains the most likely scenario, with the key question being whether it is short-term or a more prolonged standoff.1.     Negotiation Tug-of-War: Tough Talk

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

First of all, wishing everyone a happy weekend!Currently, gold prices are in a stalemate between bulls and bears, at a crucial juncture. The weekly chart maintains a range-bound structure; the MACD bullish momentum is weakening but has not yet formed a death cross, requiring a breakout at key levels to clarify the trend. The daily chart trend has shifted from strong to weak, with prices breaking below short-term moving averages, and the MACD showing signs of a death cross, indicating that bearish momentum is being released. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are within a short-term downward channel, with rebounds repeatedly capped by the Bollinger Middle Band, exhibiting a "lower highs, more stable lows" range-bound structure with a slight downward bias. The MACD shows no significant volume

Current Market Position: Gold prices are stuck in a "can't fall, can't rise" pattern within the $4700-$4800 range. On the daily chart, the MACD histogram continues to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, the KDJ indicator's J value has entered a strong zone and is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a short-term need for consolidation. The 4-hour chart shows short-term moving averages turning downwards, with the price trading below the MA5/MA10. The MACD has turned from red to green, and the green histogram is gradually increasing in volume, indicating emerging bearish momentum. Key Price Levels for Bulls and Bears$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ Level | Direction | Price (USD/oz) | Explanation: Premium Resis

In fact, the two week window of de-escalation in the conflict has long been priced into capital market movements. Although a week ago the US and Iran were still trading harsh rhetoric, with the US even threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, after all that saber-rattling you may have noticed that crude oil did not register a new high. Moreover, the US one-year inflation expectations – which typically spike along with crude oil – and the 10-year Treasury yield – which is most sensitive to US equity moves – remained remarkably calm：  $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion(TYO)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$    In fact, the 10-yea

The most closely watched development over the weekend was the progress in talks between the United States and Iran. Based on the weekend news flow, there has been some progress, but the core issues remain unresolved. Since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked a month ago, Gulf countries’ crude inventories are also nearing full capacity. If, during this two-week ceasefire window, the United States and Iran still fail to reach a better agreement that ensures safe passage through the strait, the market is likely to further lift long-term inflation sentiment, creating trading opportunities in the forward contracts of many commodities.I. Focus on the Forward Crude Oil ContractWhen this round of oil price gains first began, the market initially believed the blockade of the strait would be only a sho

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ On the daily chart, gold continues to consolidate at elevated levels with an upward bias. Prices are trading above the major moving average system, indicating that the overall trend remains bullish. The $4,550 level serves as a key support zone, while $4,650 acts as a significant short-term resistance zone. A decisive break above this level could open up further upside potential. Looking at momentum indicators, while bullish momentum remains dominant, there are signs of a marginal slowdown, suggesting a decline in willingness

💬 Gold traders & macro investors: DXY >100, oil >$100… and gold is RISING? Is this the new inflation hedge playbook? Let’s debate! $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$On Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index closed at 100.57 and crude oil futures climbed above $102.88 per barrel — both breaking the 100 level at the same time. By traditional trading logic, this is a double bearish signal for gold: A stronger dollar raises costs for non-U.S. buyers, while a sharp crude oil spike usually sparks fears of tighter liquidity first. Yet gold rose for five straight sessions, settling at $4,540 — up 2.84% in total. This unusual move is forcing traders to rethink gold’s pricing model. Why Did the Traditional Playbook Fail? The textbook says: Stro

Pentagon Reshuffle Signals Ground War Last week, oil prices experienced a new round of surging—with single-week gains exceeding double digits—driven by President Trump's aggressive, pre-war mobilization-style remarks. Although a dramatic rescue of an American pilot took place over the weekend, the more critical focus remains the personnel upheaval within the upper echelons of the US military. From a logical standpoint, this could be a strategic move to install loyalists in preparation for an eventual full-scale conflict. Therefore, even if a "ground war" is not necessarily the optimal choice, the risk of its outbreak can no longer be ignored. According to public sources, at least three top military officials have been "reassigned" or "forced into retirement," including the high-ranking Arm

Market Overview This weekend coincided with China's Qingming Festival, and while overall news was quieter, international media was flooded with a barrage of unverified rumors. These ranged from President Trump falling suddenly ill to an imminent US-Iran negotiation agreement, and even a US ultimatum demanding Iran reach a deal or face escalated conflict. The strait blockade has persisted for a month, and although a few vessels are passing through, we remain far from a full reopening. Approaching Storage Limits As we enter April, the timeline previously projected by Goldman Sachs for Gulf nations' storage capacities to reach their limits is rapidly approaching. If normal navigation is not restored soon, the chain reaction across financial markets will inevitably intensify. Therefore, until

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Spot gold weakened slightly in early trading on Monday (April 27), falling as much as 0.65% to $4,672.20, as the US-Iran peace talks stalled, oil prices jumped more than 2% on Monday, inflation concerns resurfaced, expectations for a Fed rate hike this year rose slightly, and the US dollar index rose slightly, all putting pressure on gold prices. While the market continues to focus on further developments in the Middle East, its attention is shifting more towards this week's Fed rate decision. Prior to this, this week will also see rate decisions from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. In addition, this week will also see the release of key US data, including first-quarter GDP and March

U. S. President Donald Trump delivered a national televised address on the evening of April 1, unilaterally claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in military operations against Iran. He also stated that the U.S. will continue to heavily strike Iran over the next "two to three weeks," while negotiations with Iran are simultaneously proceeding. His remarks have utterly shattered the market's expectations that the "U.S.-Iran war" could end in the short term. Moreover, his approach of negotiating while launching military strikes strongly highlights an anxious state within the Trump administration: attempting to stabilize oil prices and inflation while being unable to conclude the war quickly, essentially being dragged down by Iran. The situation has clearly spiraled out of con

Hello everyone. Under normal circumstances, with a war still going on, gold should be benefiting from its safe-haven appeal, so why has the price collapsed instead? What does this selloff tell us about trading gold and equity indices, and are there similar periods in history that we can use as reference points? Today, Mr. Gan will go through all of this in the livestream. Below are some notes I put together. The Gulf states have fallen into a strange trap: oil prices are rising, but their income is falling because they cannot sell enough crude. Why? Because of the Strait blockade.  $WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $小原油主连 2605(QMmain)$

Technically, gold remains in a weak zone, with $4600 a key support/resistance level. Although gold has seen a short-term rebound, from a technical perspective, its overall trend has not fundamentally changed.$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ Currently, gold prices are still trading below the 200-period exponential moving average (currently at $4809), indicating that medium- to long-term downward pressure persists. The MACD indicator shows that its fast line has crossed below the slow line, and both are below the zero line, with the negative histogram continuing to expand, indicating that selling pressure is gradually accumulating. The Relative St

$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows that gold prices have entered a consolidation phase after reaching previous highs, currently exhibiting a weak, high-level consolidation pattern. Key resistance levels are located at $4750 and $4800, while support levels are concentrated around $4600 and $4550. In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD shows signs of a bearish crossover at high levels, and the RSI has fallen from overbought territory, indicating weakening bullish momentum. On the H4 chart, gold's short-term trend shows a downward consolidation structure. The gap formed and failed to be quickly filled, indi