To The Moon

$PLTR

I think there is a world where Palantir can achieve 40% growth by the end of 2025:

- New catalysts and tailwinds for the government business including DOGE, renewal of contracts (as we saw with Army Vantage for $619M), increased spend on AI/software, new partnerships to create more joint contracts.

- AIP monetization is just beginning and scaling with a Pay-By-Consumption model. Palantir only has 600 customers, which is quite literally nothing compared to the amount of customers they could have. They are in the VERY early stage of getting customers onto their ecosystem and given what we know about how sticky it is (and we can see this in net dollar retention trending up), then we should see customer count growth beginning to get to the 800-1000 mark over the next 18 months.

- Palantir’s new media coverage is a compounding effect not only on the stock as more investors are getting interested but also for customers. The more their name is pitched as THE AI operating system, the more their inbound is likely increasing with more potential customers who want to sign up to a bootcamp which should drive even stronger adoption with conversions.

- LLMs are being commoditized. It’s that simple. We are in the VERY beginning of making LLMs useful and most enterprises are realizing why an Ontology matters. If the promise of enterprise AI is margin expansion and efficiency, that requires an operating system, not an LLM. As this thesis plays out, more and more companies should be integrated into Foundry and that should allow them to scale average rev per customer with AIP.

- No debt. Almost $5B in cash. FCF of $1B+. Institutional ownership above 50%. GAAP profitable. 40% growth is what takes the story to the next level.

What does this mean for the stock? Few implications…

1. We haven’t had a real market correction yet. If we do and Palantir is able to show max pain of around $60, that is REALLY bullish. If the market falls 10-15% and Palantir can hold the $60s, it only confirms our thesis that the big guys are controlling this name now and they are not letting it head lower because they want to buy on dips. I will begin buying if we see $65 and heavily begin buying if we see $50.

2. If the market does pullback hard and Palantir gets into the $40 range, the bears will laugh for a day, the bulls (many of which will still be in the green) will buy that dip. I think it will be very hard to see the $40s but no one I know who understands Palantir would be scared to add at this range again given how fast it ran from $40 to $65 and most people just didn’t get the chance to add at those levels.

3. Now, if we get to 40% growth, I’m not saying that it completely justifies the extended multiple we are trading at — but that won’t matter. What other software AI names are compounding at 40% that are actually making LLMs meaningful in an organization? OpenAI at $150B is losing money and is becoming commoditized by the day. Palantir is one of the only names that can actually scale into MULTIPLE verticals with Foundry/AIP/Apollo/Gotham/WarpSpeed and is doing so PROFITABLY. The street will pay a strong multiple for that if they can grow 40% as no other AI name will be left that can show that trajectory of growth. This means the name WILL BE EXPENSIVE probably forever but expensive should not be the “bear case” and if it is then most people will likely never get or own Palantir.

4. If we grow 40% and the stock stays flat/slightly down this year then that just means the street is consolidating in this $60-$80 range and is not giving the benefit of pulling forward any more growth. While a flat year wouldn’t be awesome, most people can’t complain as we are up more than 10x from the lows and a year of consolidation would just further provide the opportunity for more share accumulation. However, with the media coverage and excitement around the name AND a potential 40% growth story, I think many new investors/funds will begin a position.