A follower asked me to comment on this Troy post.
1. "Tesla was demand-limted" is obvious. Nobody denies that. It's a pointless point to the bigger point the post tries to cover: why did Tesla sell fewer vehicles than expected? (A).
2. "reduced production throughout 2024" is an obvious consequence of the limited demand at the current price point as Tesla faces deeply discounted vehicle competition. Something he completely ignores. Troy always argues: "Tesla drops price by X, why does Tesla not sell more vehicles?" The simple answer is that there is a very quick competitor responds.
3. "could have easily delivered 12,000 more cars" is the first time we touch on the main topic (A).
4. First, on average, it takes a minimum of about 2 weeks before a just finished vehicle can be recognized as revenue since revenue recognition not only depends on by when Tesla can deliver a vehicle in a given location but also on the customer's ability to provide all documents (eg evidence of payment etc.).
5. For this simple reason, it makes complete sense for Tesla to reduce production in 4Q further and basically almost stop sometime beginning of December. As a result, as one would expect (except Troy apparently), production in 4Q goes down.
6. Why didn't Tesla pre-produce for 1Q'25? Makes no sense to make more 'old' MYs just before the new MY launches.
7. For these reasons, this is a complete nothing-burger discussion.
But the by far biggest red herring (aka an irrelevant distraction) is the fact that he doesn't even touch on the elephant in the room: could it be possible that meaningful number of customers simply decided to wait for the new Model Y, of which we have seen plenty of leaked footage already, and that this had a negative demand effect? The answer is a loud YES, obviously.
This is what I find so annoying about this type of pseudo analysis: it analyses irrelvant points, creates distraction and thus drives poor investment decisions.
Arguably, as I stated before, anyone who never heard of @troyteslike made better investment decision and generated larger returns than any of his followers who constantly get swampped with this type of pseudo analysis.
"The Big Picture" is a concept Troy apparently has never heard of or is willingly ignoring to keep pumping his VIN nonsense content which becomes increasingly irrelevant day-by-bay and, I would argue, is already completely irrelevant at Tesla's current $1.3T valuation.
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