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$Intel(INTC)$

What’s Going on with Intel Stock Lately?

Intel stock has been on a strong run, up nearly 15% year-to-date and outperforming the broader market—beating even Nvidia. Yes, it's still early in the year, but for long-suffering Intel shareholders, any win is worth celebrating!

So, what’s driving this surge? Is there a new CEO? A game-changing product announcement? Let’s break it down.

While there are still lingering questions—especially around Intel’s CEO situation and the future of its Foundry business—the latest earnings report suggests things are heading in the right direction. A key factor to watch is Intel’s 18A process, which I believe will determine the company’s future. If it succeeds, Intel could see significant gains; if it fails, I may reconsider my position.

Performance Comparison: As of my last check, Intel stock was up about 9% year-to-date (though slightly higher now), while Nvidia was down 9.2%. Intel stock had been up and down between $19 to $22 for 2 month.

Congress Buying Intel Stock: Intel has been the fifth most purchased stock by members of Congress in 2024, with three members making eight transactions. Notable buyers include Republicans Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tommy Tuberville, as well as Democrat Jonathan L. Jackson. Historically, congressional investments tend to perform well, which is an interesting signal.

Why Is Intel Stock Rising? A few key factors are fueling the momentum:

• Positive Reviews – Well-respected tech sites like NotebookCheck, Tom’s Hardware, and PC World have praised Intel’s latest chips.

• Strong Laptop Processor Performance – The Intel Core Ultra 9 275HX recently became the fastest laptop processor on PassMark, surpassing AMD’s Ryzen 9.

• Shocking Performance Gains – PC World described Intel’s new laptop CPUs as delivering "shocking performance gains," calling them the most powerful mainstream laptop processors from Intel.

That said, some reviewers note that Intel’s AI performance lags behind competitors. However, I personally don’t think most consumers care too much about AI capabilities in laptops just yet. Performance and battery life remain the top priorities, and based on community feedback, many seem to agree.

Looking ahead, AI-driven features may become more important as new applications emerge, but for now, Intel’s focus on raw power and efficiency is paying off.

What’s Going on with Intel Right Now?

Tech reviewers recently compared Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm’s laptop platforms, concluding that all three are currently excelling in different areas. If battery life and standby performance are your top priorities, Snapdragon laptops are the way to go—though being in the ARM ecosystem means some software compatibility issues. Meanwhile, AMD’s Ryzen chips dominate in gaming and general performance. Intel’s new Lunar Lake Core Ultra 200V chips strike a balance, offering solid battery life and decent AI capabilities. However, the Core Ultra 200H isn’t quite up to par for gaming or AI-heavy applications.

That said, expectations for Intel have been so low that any positive reviews are enough to boost investor confidence. Intel’s GPUs, particularly the more affordable ones, have also received praise for their performance, indicating the company is slowly but surely turning things around.

Intel’s Role in the U.S. AI Strategy

At the recent AI Action Summit in Paris, former U.S. officials emphasized the importance of manufacturing the most advanced AI chips domestically. Naturally, Intel benefited from this sentiment, given its position as America’s leading chip foundry. While TSMC is also expanding in the U.S., its most cutting-edge R&D remains in Taiwan, meaning Intel could play a crucial role in ensuring domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

Intel-TSMC Collaboration Rumors

A recent report suggests TSMC may have sent engineers to Intel’s U.S. fabs to assist with its 3nm and 2nm production. Surprisingly, Intel appears to be ahead of TSMC in these areas—at least for now. There is also speculation that Intel’s foundry business could be spun off into a separate entity, potentially co-owned with TSMC and benefiting from U.S. CHIPS Act funding. If this happens, Intel could shift focus toward chip design while relying on a more efficient manufacturing model.

Potential CEO Changes

The leadership question remains open. Recent executive reshuffling at GlobalFoundries has fueled speculation that its CEO could take on a leadership role at Intel. However, it’s unclear whether he would fully transition or hold dual positions. Intel must make the right choice this time, as a misstep could be costly. Ideally, the new CEO will have deep semiconductor industry experience.

Intel’s Business Performance

Despite its challenges, Intel’s core businesses—Client Computing and Data Center—are still generating significant revenue. Over the past 18 months:

• Client Computing has grown 39%

• Data Center & AI has increased 16.75%

• Intel Foundry revenue has declined 6.8%, largely due to restructuring

While the foundry business is currently a financial drag, Intel’s long-term prospects could shift dramatically if it becomes profitable and gains momentum. If revenue accelerates and Wall Street gains confidence, Intel’s stock could see a major re-rating.

Stock Performance & Future Catalysts

Intel’s stock recently broke above its 20- and 50-day moving averages but remains below the 200-day mark. Since hitting its lows last August, the RSI has steadily improved, signaling a more positive trend.

Looking ahead, a key event in Washington this March, where Intel will discuss AI and semiconductors, could serve as another catalyst for the stock. More clarity on the CEO search would also be a welcome development.

Why Are We Cautious About Intel (INTC)?

• Declining Sales: Intel’s revenue has declined 5.9% annually over the past five years, indicating unfavorable market trends during this cycle.

• Falling Profits: As sales dropped, Intel struggled to adjust its fixed costs, leading to a decline in operating profits.

• Rising Capital Intensity: The company’s free cash flow margin has decreased by 31.3 percentage points over the same period, reflecting increased capital expenditures.

At $22.54 per share, Intel is trading at 25x forward price-to-earnings, raising valuation concerns given its recent financial struggles.

Conclusion

All of this sounds promising, but Investor should remains cautious and Intel stock is not as a buy just yet. Many maintaining a neutral rating until these rumors are confirmed—a prudent approach, in my view. Intel is currently unprofitable, with $18.8 billion in net losses over the past year. It isn’t expected to achieve GAAP profitability until at least 2026. Even then, with analysts projecting earnings of $0.29 per share, the stock is trading at an extremely high 74 times next year’s earnings.

Intel could become a buy in the future—but today is not that day.

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

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