To The Moon

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ $Boeing(BA)$ $Elevance Health(ELV)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

We are led to believe that members of Congress are some of the most successful investors, consistently outperforming the S&P 500. The latest data for 2024 shows that trend is still true—most members of Congress are not only outperforming the S&P, but doing so at a significant margin. In fact, the top five members have seen returns in the triple digits. This isn't just a one-off occurrence either; the same conclusion can be drawn from the performance in 2023, where over 90% of Congress members massively outperformed the market. Looking back at 2012, when the S&P returned only 8%, nearly every member of Congress outperformed it. Some members even had exceptional returns. In 2021, both Democrats and Republicans beat the S&P.

While some might argue this situation shouldn’t be the norm, it’s worth noting that before President Biden left office, he supported a ban on congressional stock trading. Now that Donald Trump is president, it will be interesting to see if these issues are addressed or if the current trend continues. As the saying goes, "If you can't beat them, join them." So, what are the stocks Congress members have been buying recently, and should we consider adding them to our portfolios to outperform the S&P—perhaps even by a large margin?

Stock 1 AMD

One stock that members have been adding to their portfolios is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), also known as "Advanced Money Destroyer." Over the past year, AMD is down 37%, but long-term shareholders are still up more than 3,500%. That’s a huge outperformance compared to the S&P. Right now, AMD is near its 52-week low, and analysts, including Wall Street, Seeking Alpha, and Congress members, are calling it a buy. The company gets an A for growth, and its earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow by 43% annually over the next 3-5 years, significantly outpacing the sector's average of 14.8%. AMD has a perfect track record, having met or beaten earnings expectations over the past four quarters. With a forward P/E of 23.9, AMD is trading lower than its sector median, offering a 6% discount compared to its historical 5-year average.

We’ve applied our valuation process to AMD and arrived at a target price of $190, representing a 68% upside. If you believe a 25% upside is more realistic, the price would be $137 (21% upside). For a more conservative estimate of 20%, the stock could be worth $98, which would reflect a 13% downside. Using the 30% growth rate, our valuation indicates significant upside, especially when factoring in a margin of safety. Given AMD’s recent drop from its all-time high, it offers a substantial margin of safety at the current price. Wall Street has a price target of $148 for AMD over the next year.

Stock 2 Salesforce

The next stock that members of Congress have been adding is Salesforce, a company we recently covered and personally like. Over the last year, Salesforce has surged 133%, and over the past decade, it has outperformed the S&P, rising 42%. The stock is currently trading at the upper end of its 52-week range, with Wall Street also rating it a buy. They offer a dividend of 0.5%.

In terms of growth, Salesforce gets a solid B+, with EPS growth expectations of 16% year-over-year—slightly higher than the sector average of 15%, but below their own 5-year average of 20%. They expect consistent growth each quarter over the next year, though they did miss earnings expectations in the last four quarters, giving them a 75% track record. Their projected EPS stands at just over $11, resulting in a forward P/E ratio of around 29.1.

When comparing to the sector, Salesforce trades at a 27% premium, but it’s actually at a 23% discount to its 5-year average valuation. Our intrinsic value for Salesforce comes to $371, using a 12% forward growth rate. Currently, the stock is offering a margin of safety of 10-15%. Wall Street’s target price for Salesforce is just under $400 for the next 12 months, translating to a 22% upside.

Stock 3 Nvidia

Nancy Pelosi and other members of Congress have also been adding to their Nvidia position, which is up 88% over the last year. Over the past decade, Nvidia has seen an incredible 24,000% gain. The stock is now trading at the upper end of its 52-week range, with a strong buy rating from Wall Street and Seeking Alpha. They offer a low dividend of just 0.3%.

Nvidia boasts an A+ rating for growth, with an anticipated 38% growth in earnings per share (EPS). While AMD’s expected growth is in the low 40s, Nvidia not only exceeds the sector’s average but also outpaces its own 5-year growth rate of 27.4%. Over the next four quarters, Nvidia expects double-digit growth in EPS and has maintained a 100% track record of meeting or beating estimates.

The stock currently trades at a forward P/E of 31.3, which is 84% higher than the sector median. However, it’s still below its 5-year average of 48. Using a 25% growth rate for future projections, our intrinsic value estimate for Nvidia comes in at $179, offering a potential upside of 30%. With a margin of safety, the stock is valued at a 20-25% upside for investors today. Wall Street sees Nvidia reaching $179 over the next year, reflecting a 30% upside.

Stock 4 DIS Disney

The next stock that members of Congress have been adding to their portfolios is The Walt Disney Company, which has seen a slight 1% decline over the past year. However, over the last decade, it has risen by 6%. Keep in mind, returns will vary depending on when you purchased the stock. Disney’s price was around $86 before it hit a peak of around $200 in March 2021. Currently, it’s trading near the upper end of its 52-week range, with a double buy rating from both Seeking Alpha and Wall Street. Disney also offers a dividend of 0.91%.

In terms of growth, Disney gets a D+, with EPS growth of 13.3%, which is pretty much in line with the sector average but significantly lower than their 5-year historical average of 22%. Disney has a perfect track record, having met or exceeded earnings expectations for the last four quarters. However, moving forward, they only expect two out of the next four quarters to show positive growth. Based on their September 2026 accounting period, the stock is expected to have a forward P/E ratio of around 18-19.

While that’s still higher than the sector, it represents a 38% premium. However, compared to their 5-year average P/E of 42, the stock is trading at a 52% discount. Our intrinsic value estimate for Disney is $129, and with a 10-15% margin of safety, we would consider a buy around $116-$128. Wall Street also sees a price target of $128 for Disney over the next year, indicating a 16% upside.

Stock 5 ELV Elevance Health

Next up is Eli Lilly, which has dropped 23% over the past year. However, over the last decade, it has marginally outperformed the S&P, rising 170%. The stock is currently near its 52-week low, with a strong buy rating from Seeking Alpha and Wall Street. It offers a relatively high dividend yield of 1.8%.

In terms of growth, Eli Lilly earns a D rating, with EPS growth expected at just above 8%, which is lower than both the sector's average of 10.5% and the broader market’s 12.6%. The company has missed earnings expectations in the last two quarters, giving them a 50% track record. For the next four quarters, they anticipate growth in three of them, although the growth in Quarter 2 is expected to be marginal.

Looking at their December 2025 projections, Eli Lilly is trading at a forward P/E of 11.3. They’re currently trading at a 41% discount to the sector and a 22% discount to their 5-year average. Our intrinsic value estimate for Eli Lilly is $519, which offers a significant margin of safety at its current trading price of around $389-$390. Wall Street also has a bullish outlook for the company, with a target of $510 over the next year, indicating a 31% upside.

Stock 6 BA Boeing

The next stock that members of Congress have been buying is The Boeing Company, which is down 9% over the past year. Over the past decade, the stock has only gained 16%. Currently, it’s trading near the upper end of its 52-week range, with both Seeking Alpha and Wall Street giving it a double buy rating.

In terms of growth, Boeing receives an "A" grade, but its expected growth for the next year is relatively modest, at 7%, which is significantly above the sector's average of 3.5%. However, it’s much lower than their 5-year average of 106%. Boeing has missed earnings expectations significantly in the last three quarters, resulting in a 25% track record for earnings beats. For the current year, the EPS estimate is -$1.45. That said, the company is anticipating growth over the next three quarters, which provides some optimism.

Due to the negative EPS, we don't have a current valuation on the forward P/E. However, based on our model, Boeing’s intrinsic value comes to $189, meaning it’s currently trading around its fair price. With a 10% margin of safety, we would consider a buy at $170, and at 20%, a buy at $151, and at 25%, a buy at $142. Wall Street’s price target for Boeing is $200, indicating only an 8% upside.

Stock 7 Mastercard

Next up is Mastercard, which is up 22% over the past year and has massively outperformed the S&P over the last decade, rising 522%. It’s currently trading near its all-time highs, at the upper end of its 52-week range, and both Seeking Alpha and Wall Street consider it a buy. Mastercard offers a modest dividend yield of 0.54%.

In terms of growth, Mastercard receives a B rating, with an anticipated EPS growth of 14%. This is well above the sector's average of 9.8%, but still lower than their 5-year average of 19.7%. The company has a 100% historical earnings track record and is expected to maintain mid-to-high single-digit growth over the next four quarters. Currently, Mastercard is trading at a forward P/E of 35.5.

Given its high valuation, the stock receives an "F" grade for valuation, as it’s trading at a 206% premium compared to the overall sector. However, it’s trading close to its own 5-year average P/E of 37.5. While we believe Mastercard is trading at its fair value, high-quality companies like this sometimes warrant a premium. For those interested in a margin of safety, we’d consider buying at $511 for a 10% margin, $455 for 20%, and $426 for 25%. Wall Street sees an 11% upside, with a price target of $626 for the next year.

Stock 8 BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb

The next stock on the list is up 10% over the last year and 11% over the past 10 years. Currently, it's trading at the upper end of its 52-week range, with only Seeking Alpha considering it a buy. It offers the highest yield we've seen today at 4.6%.

In terms of growth, the company receives an F grade, with expected EPS growth of around 9%. This is just slightly below the sector's growth of 10.6% but significantly higher than their own 5-year average of 4.24%. Looking at their earnings, the outlook is mixed over the next four quarters. However, we do like seeing a 100% track record for historical data.

Currently, the company trades at a forward valuation just below its industry average. In terms of valuation grading, it gets an A, as it is trading at a 59% discount compared to the sector. The valuation is also favorable compared to its 5-year average.

Based on our model, we get an intrinsic value of $62. With a 10% margin of safety, we would consider a buy at $56. While not yet at a 15% margin of safety, it sits somewhere between 10% and 15%. Wall Street’s price target is also $62, which translates to a 15% upside.

Conclusion

As always, let me know your thoughts on these eight stocks. Whether you're following the moves of members of Congress or believe these stocks are a hold or even a sell, I’d love to hear from you.

@Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerObserver @Tiger_comments @TigerClub

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.