To The Moon

Add it to your watchlist. The current price ranges between $15.75 and $16.10. A potential breakout above $17.40 could signal increasing momentum.

Introduction

As we move through 2025, a notable shift in investment capital is underway, with funds increasingly gravitating toward AI-driven healthcare companies such as Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) and Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR). While HIMS has garnered significant attention for its telehealth platform addressing wellness and sexual health, Oscar Health remains less familiar to many investors despite its rapid rise and disruptive potential. This report delves into Oscar Health’s business model, recent earnings, stock performance, high-profile investor interest—particularly from Michael Burry—and the explosive trading volume that saw shares surge 17.8% on February 18, 2025.

Oscar Health’s Business

Oscar Health, Inc., listed on the NYSE under the ticker OSCR, is a technology-focused health insurance company founded in 2012 by Mario Schlosser, Joshua Kushner, and Kevin Nazemi. Headquartered in New York, Oscar aims to revolutionize the $4 trillion U.S. healthcare industry by leveraging AI, data analytics, and a user-friendly digital platform to simplify insurance and improve member experiences. The company primarily offers individual and family plans through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces, operating in 22 states and serving over 1.5 million members as of early 2025.

Oscar’s business stands out through its tech-driven approach:

Telemedicine: Free, unlimited 24/7 virtual doctor visits via its app, enhancing accessibility.

 Care Navigation: Dedicated care teams assist members in finding providers and managing benefits.

 Personalization: AI and data analytics tailor plans and predict healthcare needs, aiming to reduce costs and improve outcomes.

 Network Partnerships: Collaborations with top-tier providers like Cleveland Clinic ensure quality care within cost-effective networks.

Beyond its core insurance offerings, Oscar licenses its +Oscar tech platform to other insurers and providers, diversifying its revenue streams. Its mission—“healthcare that works for you”—targets younger, tech-savvy consumers and underserved populations, positioning it as a modern alternative to legacy insurers.

Earnings Performance

Oscar Health’s financials reflect its growth trajectory and recent shift to profitability. The company released its Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings on February 4, 2025:

Q4 2024:

Revenue: $2.39 billion, up 48% YoY, though below analyst expectations of $2.46 billion.

 Adjusted EPS: Loss of $0.62, missing estimates of a $0.60 loss.

 Net Loss: $153.1 million, slightly worse than $150.2 million in Q4 2023.

 Medical Loss Ratio (MLR): 88.1%, up from 86.4% YoY, indicating higher medical costs.

 Adjusted EBITDA: Loss of $62.7 million, improved from $91.8 million loss YoY.

 Full-Year 2024:

Revenue: $9.18 billion, a 56.5% increase from $5.86 billion in 2023, meeting estimates.

 Net Income: $25.4 million ($0.10 per diluted share), a historic first profit vs. a $270.7 million loss in 2023.

 Adjusted EBITDA: $199.2 million, up from a $45.3 million loss, beating guidance of $160-$210 million.

 Membership: 1.68 million, up 62% from 1.04 million in 2023.

For 2025, Oscar projects revenue of $11.2-$11.3 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $365-$415 million, reflecting confidence in sustained growth and profitability despite seasonal Q4 pressures.

Stock Performance

Oscar Health’s stock has experienced volatility but showed significant momentum in early 2025:

Pre-February Surge: Prior to mid-February, OSCR traded around $12-$14, down 22.49% over the past year as of early February but rebounding from a 52-week low of $7.68.

 February 18, 2025: The stock surged 17.8%, closing at $15.85, driven by news of Michael Burry’s stake and positive sentiment. This followed a ~15% drop post-earnings on February 4 due to the Q4 miss.

 Market Cap: Approximately $3.7 billion, offering a low price-to-sales ratio given $9.2 billion in 2024 revenue.

The stock’s forward P/E ranges from 14-35 based on 2025 EPS estimates ($0.81 for Q1), highlighting its perceived undervaluation and growth potential.

Michael Burry’s Stake

Michael Burry, the contrarian investor famed for “The Big Short,” significantly boosted Oscar’s visibility by acquiring 200,000 shares in Q4 2024, disclosed via a 13F filing on February 14, 2025. Valued at approximately $2.8 million at the time (assuming a $14 average price), this stake aligns with Burry’s strategy of targeting undervalued, high-growth companies. His Scion Asset Management portfolio, worth $77.4 million in Q4, also includes healthcare bets like HCA Healthcare and Molina Healthcare, but Oscar’s tech-driven insurance model adds a unique angle. Burry’s involvement, reported widely by February 18, fueled a sentiment shift, with X posts calling OSCR “dirt cheap” and primed for a breakout.

Trading Volume Explosion

Oscar Health’s trading volume spiked dramatically on February 18, 2025, jumping from an average of 4.2 million shares to 13.5 million—a 221% increase. The 17.8% price gain underscored heightened investor interest, contrasting with its typical 11% weekly volatility, and positioned OSCR as a breakout candidate amidst the AI healthcare trend.

Conclusion

Oscar Health represents a compelling player in the AI-driven healthcare space, blending insurance with cutting-edge technology to challenge traditional models. Its 2024 profitability, robust revenue growth, and recent stock momentum—amplified by Michael Burry’s backing and a trading volume explosion—signal its rising prominence. While HIMS enjoys broader recognition, Oscar’s undervaluation (low P/S ratio, $4.8 billion in cash vs. $3.7 billion market cap) and scalability make it an overlooked gem for investors eyeing the intersection of AI and healthcare in 2025. However, its volatility and dependence on ACA dynamics warrant cautious optimism.

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