To The Moon

Recent negotiations between the United States and Ukraine have centered on a proposed minerals agreement, aiming to grant the U.S. significant access to Ukraine's valuable natural resources. The initial U.S. proposal, presented on February 12, 2025, by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, sought 50% ownership of Ukraine's mineral and natural resource revenues—including rare earth elements, oil, gas, and port infrastructure. This arrangement was intended as compensation for U.S. military aid provided during Ukraine's conflict with Russia. The proposal stipulated that these assets and funds be transferred into a U.S.-controlled fund until it accumulates $500 billion, which could then be resold as bonds or through an IPO as a listed company. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected this initial proposal, citing the absence of concrete security guarantees and expressing concerns over Ukraine potentially becoming merely a raw materials hub. He emphasized the need for explicit security assurances to accompany any economic agreement. 

In response, the U.S. submitted a revised and more detailed agreement last week, reportedly demanding an even larger share of Ukraine's resources. This new proposal includes profits from oil, natural gas, and port infrastructure, with all these assets and funds being transferred into a U.S.-controlled fund until it accumulates $500 billion to establish a U.S. sovereign fund, which could be resold as bonds or through an IPO as a listed company. However, this version still lacks the security guarantees Ukraine seeks. 

Regarding the Russian-occupied eastern regions of Ukraine, the draft states that once these territories are reclaimed, they will be jointly developed by the U.S. and Ukraine. Ukraine would contribute two-thirds of the investment, while the U.S. would provide one-third—though Washington may consider its military aid as part of its contribution. 

Negotiations are ongoing, with formal discussions scheduled for Monday. While the current proposal is unlikely to reach consensus in its present form, Ukraine may attempt to negotiate for the allocated funds to be reinvested locally as a trade-off. The situation remains fluid, and the international community is closely monitoring how both nations will navigate these complex economic and security considerations.