To The Moon

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ will be reporting its Q4 2024 quarterly earnings on 28 Feb 2025 before the market open.

Analysts are expecting FUBO to report a quarterly loss of $0.18 per share which would represent narrowing of the losses with an increase of 29.4% compared to same period one year ago. Revenue is anticipated to come in at $446.66 million, exhibiting an increase of 8.9% compared to the year-ago quarter.

The TV-streaming sector have been in pretty volatile stage, and we have seen FUBO rise 204% following a blockbuster merger plan with Disney’s Hulu+.

But we need to manage the bullish fatigue unless FUBO can build upon its high-profile acquisition via commercially viable substance and clear forward guidance.

fuboTV (FUBO) Last Neutral Earnings Call Gave Investors 106.90% Change Since

FUBO investors have managed to see 106.90% change to the share price following the last neutral earnings call on 01 Nov 2024.

The earnings call highlighted strong revenue and subscriber growth in North America, along with significant improvements in profitability metrics. However, challenges such as a decline in advertising revenue and subscriber numbers in international markets tempered the positive outlook. The successful legal action against a joint venture involving major competitors was also a key positive development.

fuboTV (FUBO) Guidance To Focus On Cost Management

During Fubo's Q3 2024 earnings call, the company provided comprehensive guidance, projecting North America subscriber growth for Q4 to range between 1.665 million to 1.705 million, representing a 4% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Revenue guidance for the same period is set between $426 million and $446 million, indicating a 9% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. For the full year 2024, North American revenue is expected to be between $1.58 billion and $1.60 billion, reflecting a 19% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. In the Rest of the World segment, Q4 subscriber guidance is between 345,000 to 355,000, marking a 14% year-over-year decline at the midpoint, while revenue is anticipated to be between $8 million and $9 million, showing 0% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

The full-year 2024 guidance for this segment projects 345,000 to 355,000 subscribers and $33 million to $35 million in revenue, representing a 4% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. This guidance considers potential industry volatility and emphasizes disciplined subscriber acquisition cost management relative to monetization.

Key Metrics To Watch For fuboTV (FUBO)

We need to understand that when we evaluate fuboTV (FUBO) earnings, we need to balance its growth trajectory in the competitive streaming landscape against persistent challenges in profitability and content costs.

Here are some positive factor indicators that require us to look at

Subscriber Growth: fuboTV’s sports-first live TV streaming model could see accelerated subscriber additions in Q4, driven by major sports events (NFL, NBA, soccer) and holiday promotions. Analysts will focus on paid subscriber numbers (consensus estimates ~1.5–1.6M?) and retention rates.

In Q3 2024, FUBO north america revenue grew by 21% year-over-year, reaching $377 million. Subscriber numbers also increased by 9% year-over-year, achieving 1,613,000 paid subscribers.

International expansion (e.g., Canada, Spain) may contribute incremental growth.

Advertising Revenue: Q4 is typically strong for ad spending (holiday season). If fuboTV’s ad-tech stack (targeted ads, interactive features) gains traction, ad revenue per user could outperform. Ad revenue now makes up ~20% of total revenue, a critical lever for margin improvement.

For the Q3, adjusted EBITDA improved by nearly $100 million year-over-year over the trailing 12 months, with a $33.8 million improvement in Q3 2024 compared to Q3 2023.

Cost Management: Progress toward reducing content acquisition costs (a major expense) through renegotiated licensing deals or tiered pricing (e.g., sports-free bundles) would signal improved unit economics. Net loss decreased to $54.7 million from $84.4 million in Q3 2023. Adjusted EPS loss improved to $0.08 from $0.22 in Q3 2023.

Sports Betting Integration: Partnerships with betting platforms (e.g., linkage to sports wagering via Fubo Sportsbook) could enhance engagement and cross-selling, though regulatory hurdles remain. Fubo won a preliminary injunction against the sports streaming joint venture from Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery, which was seen as likely to succeed on its claims.

Key Risks & Challenges

Profitability Concerns: fuboTV has yet to achieve profitability, with steep losses driven by content costs. Investors will scrutinize EBITDA margins and whether net losses narrowed YoY. Consensus may expect EBITDA improvement toward -15% to -10% (vs. -25% in 2023).

In Q3, advertising revenue in North America declined by 11% year-over-year due to tough comparisons and adjustments to the content portfolio. This could be challenging the revenue for Q4 2024 as well.

Content Cost Pressures: Rising fees for sports rights (e.g., NFL, Premier League) could strain margins. Renewal negotiations in late 2024 might weigh on guidance.

Competition: Intense rivalry from YouTube TV, Hulu Live, and traditional cable’s virtual MVPDs (e.g., Sling TV) pressures pricing power and subscriber churn. Differentiation via sports remains critical.

Macro Headwinds: Consumer belt-tightening in a softer economy could hurt discretionary spending on streaming subscriptions ($74.99/month base plan). Ad budgets may also tighten if macro conditions weaken. Rest of the World subscribers are projected to decline by 14% year-over-year in Q4 2024, with flat revenue growth expected at the midpoint.

fuboTV (FUBO) Price Target

Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for fuboTV in the last 3 months. The average price target is $5.72 with a high forecast of $6.40 and a low forecast of $4.75. The average price target represents a 58.89% change from the last price of $3.60.

We could be seeing only a small move after its earnings result because the challenges from subscriptions should be reducing and not so good even though the holiday season and festive season could be boosting it.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

From the technicals, we are seeing FUBO trading sideways as there have not been much buying sentiment as seen from RSI, there is not much conviction from buying activities.

We might be seeing very little price movement after its earnings call.

Summary

FUBO’s volatile history means even modest beats/misses could drive outsized moves. Short interest (~20% of float) raises potential for a squeeze on positive surprises. Investors may reward progress toward profitability, but skepticism persists due to FUBO’s history of cash burn.

Here are some metrics which I will be watching for FUBO earnings :

• Subscriber additions/churn rate

• Advertising revenue growth (YoY)

• Content costs as % of revenue

• 2025 EBITDA margin guidance

A beat on subs and ad revenue with tighter cost controls could lift shares short-term, but long-term concerns about content costs and competition remain. If guidance disappoints or losses widen, the stock’s high-risk profile may trigger sell-offs.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think FUBO would beat earnings estimates if they can cut down the subscriber acquisition cost..

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.