SPX Outlook: Bullish Bounce or Bearish Trend Ahead?

TRIGGER TRADES
2025-03-02

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ resolved higher as expected after completing its ABC down from its peak.

The decline from the high is either a bearish 1st wave to begin the multi-year bear market, or the completion of [W4] to produce one last final high for [W5] before topping.

Both scenarios suggest the Daily FVG at 6043-6084 being reached 🎯

If a bearish WXY model is formed there, the 3rd wave is the next move targeting the 5773 yearly low w/ downside for more

However, a Daily close above 6084 would suggest one last high above 6147 to terminate [W5] to then top and crash. This is invalidated below 5837.66.

Currently, just looking higher against Friday’s 5837 low to which a bullish SMT divergence formed against $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ .

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