To The Moon

My Investing Muse (03 Mar 2025)

Layoffs & Closure news

Retailers will close up to 15,000 stores this year, more than double the 7,325 closures in 2024 and breaking the closure record set in 2020 during the pandemic. Retailers are projected to open only 5,800 stores, slightly less than the 5,970 opened last year, but representing a widening gap favoring closings over openings. - Forbes

DBS has identified 13,000 employees that require upskilling or reskilling in order to enable them to be future-ready, it said on Tuesday (Feb 25). This comes after Bloomberg on Monday reported that the lender plans to cut about 4,000 of its contract and temporary staff over the next three years. - Business Times (SG) DBS to cut 4,000 temp staff over next 3 years, replace them with AI. Will there be more AI-led retrenchments?

Onsemi to Cut 9% of Workforce Amid Restructuring Charges related to the layoffs are expected to cost around $50 million to $60 million and be recorded in 2025 - WSJ

EY to cut about 100 staff, warns of ‘targeted restructuring’ - AFR

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Chevron Corp has announced that it will lay off 15-20% of its global workforce and reorganize its business structure. - OilPrice

The Trump administration has restructured USAID, placing employees on leave and cutting 2,000 positions. - LiveMint

TikTok has laid off at least a dozen employees in Singapore as part of long-term growth plans that seek to reduce the global workforce to streamline operations. - VNExpress

Starbucks will lay off 1,100 corporate employees, CEO Brian Niccol said Monday. The cuts will not affect staff at cafes. Niccol said he aims to streamline the company's operations. - CNBC

The above are some snippets of news about layoffs and closures in the past week. There seems to be more of such news in recent weeks. Widespread retrenchment is one of the early signs of a market correction.

Over-Valuation News

These are some news that show overvaluation in the American market:

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U.S. Stock Market reaches the most overvalued level in history - BarChart

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway cash pile hit a new RECORD of $334.2 billion in Q4 2024. The cash share of total assets hit 29% and even exceeded 2005 levels seen before the Great Financial Crisis. - X user Global Markets Investor

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S&P 500 Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio hit ~5.3x and exceeded the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble Peak levels. Book value is simply the company's total assets minus its total liabilities. P/B ratio has DOUBLED over the last 5 years - X user Global Markets Investor

The news extract above suggests that the market is overvalued.

My final thoughts

I saw the following in the X posts.

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From X user Guilherme Tavares

The SPX line is expected to move in the same direction as the JOLT line. This is a matter of time before JOLT turns upwards or the SPX line moves downwards.

There seems to be a more bearish sentiment in the market. When such sentiment takes over, it can affect the market much more than statistics or data points. When the market turns fearful, the panic can be exponential, leading to market corrections. Some have said that a market correction is overdue, and we should be prepared for one. With the current valuation, not trading can also be a good trade.

Let us research before investing. I wish you all a great week ahead.

@TigerStars

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