SMH Price found support at the lower Bollinger Band and the volume shelf
$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ Price found support at the lower Bollinger Band and the volume shelf (green arrow).
While Friday's price action suggests a potential bounce, a sustained recovery is not assured due to a significant development: the 40-week moving average (purple line) has been decisively breached. This breach has historically preceded substantial pullbacks, as seen in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022.
Only in August 2024 was there a momentary breach at the weekly opening, following three weeks of selling. Currently, SMH's technical position is more aligned with the aforementioned years, as it is not exhibiting oversold conditions.
$236.8 will make the difference next week between bullish continuation or a resume of the decline.
The black arrows highlight the reversal candles at the upper Bollinger band, all preceding notable pullbacks.
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