To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is still holding bullish structure, but we haven’t been bullish on it since November.

Back in November, we saw the BX start making lower highs. This happens when bright green shifts to dark green, signaling that momentum is fading and money is leaving the expansion.

When this occurs, one of two things typically follows:

1️⃣ A correction (like we’ve seen the past three times)

2️⃣ Compression (which we saw back in September 2023)

Each of these moments is highlighted in red, and historically, this is not an environment where we go long.

That said, price is now pulling back into the smart money zone, which is where institutions usually step in to prevent further downside.

This exact scenario played out on August 5th, 2024, and led to a strong reversal.

What I Don’t Like About This Setup

One of my biggest concerns right now is that the monthly BX is still making lower lows.

For further confirmation, we first need to see the weekly BX bottom out, but more importantly, we eventually need to see the monthly BX roll over to higher lows.

The last three times the monthly BX printed dark red, price downtrended for nearly a year, which is why I’m hesitant to go long just yet.

How I’m Approaching This Trade

1️⃣ If price pulls into the smart money zone and the weekly BX starts making higher lows, I will turn on the trading bots.

2️⃣ I do believe there’s a high probability of a bounce, but I need to see clear buying pressure before becoming bullish.

3️⃣ If you want to be more aggressive, you can drop to the daily timeframe, look for a higher low on the daily BX, and set stop losses if price sells off to lower lows.

4️⃣ Using this method, we could have entered on August 6th, 2024, at $104, leading to a 20% move up to $130.

If the daily BX prints higher lows this week, I will likely turn on the trading bots with a 4% stop loss as a worst-case scenario.

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