To The Moon

$Dollar Tree(DLTR)$ 's performance this time is not good. The revenue and earnings per share didn't meet the market's expectations, and the revenue is less than last year's. Costs have also increased, squeezing the profits. There seems to be some issues with inventory management. The market isn't optimistic about its future performance, and its stock price has fallen.

Here is the analysis of $Dollar Tree(DLTR)$ Q4 2024 financial results, which were released on March 26, 2025:

Financial Performance

• Revenue: The company's Q4 revenue was $8.2658 billion, below the market expectation of $8.4023 billion. It decreased by 4.5% year-over-year and 12.2% quarter-over-quarter.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS was $2.11, lower than the market expectation of $2.24. It declined by 17.2% compared to the same period last year.

Business Analysis

• Sales Decline: The drop in revenue is mainly due to consumers cutting back on non-essential spending, which has led to a decrease in the company's sales.

• Cost Pressure: The company is facing cost increases, including tariffs, transportation costs, and labor costs, which have put pressure on its profit margins.

• Inventory Management: The company's inventory decreased by 11.5% year-over-year in Q4, indicating potential issues in its inventory management.

Market Reaction and Future Outlook

• Stock Performance: Since the beginning of the year, Dollar Tree's stock has fallen by 10.4%, compared to a 1.8% decline in the S&P 500 Index.

• Analyst Ratings: Currently, Dollar Tree has an average rating of "hold," with a consensus target price of $83.89. There is uncertainty about its performance in the coming quarters, and the market is cautious about its future prospects.

• Future Outlook: The company expects its EPS for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 to be between $1.10 and $1.25, lower than the market expectation of $1.49.