Chagee's IPO Frenzy: Can Its Low Valuation Spark a Day-One Surge?
$Chagee Holdings Limited(CHA)$ , one of China's fastest-growing tea beverage chains, is officially going public this week — and its IPO is drawing serious attention from both retail and institutional investors.
Chagee Joins $333 Billion Market Boom with US IPO Filing - The Exchange Asia
IPO Details
Issue Price: US$26-28
Total Fundraising: ~US$410 million
Implied Valuation: ~US$5.1 billion (≈HK$39.6B)
At the IPO price, Chagee’s estimated market cap of US$5.1 billion puts it close to Guming. Compared to Mixue, it makes 50% of the revenue, but only has 25% of the valuation.
Chagee’s revenue (CNY ¥12.41B) is roughly 50% of Mixue’s.
Its net profit (CNY ¥2.52B) is 56% of Mixue’s and 1.68× Guming’s.
By earnings power alone, Chagee appears undervalued. Its profitability outpaces Guming and holds up strongly against Mixue — yet its valuation lags far behind.
Does that spell underpricing? Or is the market rightfully cautious?
Global Reach: A Singapore Story
Chagee isn’t just a domestic brand anymore. It now runs over 4,500 stores worldwide, and boasts 130 million registered members.
In Singapore, its presence is rising fast: Stores at Orchard Road, Raffles City, and other prime locations
Southeast Asia’s tea wars are heating up, and Singapore is at the heart of it.
But Not All Smooth Tea...
Chagee is listing in the US, not Hong Kong — meaning it could face de-listing risk amid US-China tensions. Tariff pressures and rising geopolitical scrutiny may impact long-term sentiment. Southeast Asia’s tea market is saturated, and brand loyalty can shift quickly
Will Chagee pop on day one like early Bubble Tea IPOs $MIXUE BINGCHENG CO LTD.(MXUBY)$?
Or will it follow the path of $NAYUKI(02150)$ , which saw early hype and then a painful correction?
As a Singapore-based consumer/investor, do you feel Chagee has stronger resonance here than Mixue or Heytea?
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$Chagee Holdings Limited(CHA)$ , one of China's fastest-growing tea beverage chains, is officially going public this week — and its IPO is drawing serious attention from both retail and institutional investors.
At the IPO price, Chagee’s estimated market cap of US$5.1 billion puts it close to Guming. Compared to Mixue, it makes 50% of the revenue, but only has 25% of the valuation.
Chagee’s revenue (CNY ¥12.41B) is roughly 50% of Mixue’s.
Its net profit (CNY ¥2.52B) is 56% of Mixue’s and 1.68× Guming’s.
Will Chagee pop on day one like early Bubble Tea IPOs $MIXUE BINGCHENG CO LTD.(MXUBY)$?
Or will it follow the path of $NAYUKI(02150)$ , which saw early hype and then a painful correction?
As a Singapore-based consumer/investor, do you feel Chagee has stronger resonance here than Mixue or Heytea?
leave your comments to win tiger coins~
从投资角度来看，IPO定价看起来很有吸引力。Chagee的盈利实力非常突出——几乎是古明的两倍，但其估值较低。这表明潜在的上涨空间。尽管如此，鉴于中美紧张局势和未来退市的风险，我理解人们的谨慎态度。
如果Chagee实现增长并很好地管理情绪，它可能会成为一个强劲的消费者增长故事。就我个人而言，我正在关注其IPO后的价格走势——如果宏观担忧及早打压其，那可能是一个可靠的进入机会。
@Tiger_SG @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerGPT
Compared to its competitor $MIXUEGROUP(02097)$ Chagee offers a more premium experience with higher quality ingredients and a wide range of healthier choice.
Mixue's focus is on affordability and accessibility. Can Chagee's IPO match the extraordinary success of Mixue's IPO in Hong Kong? Mixue's share price has surged over 80% since its IPO in February this year.
Chagee's business in China is doing very well. It has 6,440 tea houses, 97% of which are in China at the end of 2024. This is up 83% compared to 2023. Net Revenues
不过要说能否首日飙升，还得看几点：第一，机构认购的热度，目前来看反应不俗，说明市场对其成长性认可；第二，它本身主打“中高端茶饮”定位清晰，加上盈利能力也不错，不是纯烧钱扩张那种；第三，新茶饮赛道竞争激烈，投资者也越来越挑剔，是否能持续盈利会是关键。
如果资金面配合，加上短线情绪推动，我觉得首日出现不错的涨幅是有机会的，但也别过度神话，理性参与更重要。
Tried Mixue once, not worth the hype. Honestly, Koi taste way better.
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