To The Moon

$Boeing(BA)$

Today, we’re diving into a company that’s been on a lot of investors' radars recently—Boeing (BA). Now, trust me, it’s not just about those iconic airplanes. While we all know Boeing for its massive influence in the aerospace industry, the company is at a critical juncture in its history. Boeing is facing some major decisions that could either propel them into a new era of growth or set them back for years to come. So, today, we’re going to take a comprehensive look at what’s going on with Boeing right now, starting with their latest earnings report, diving into the technical charts, and discussing all the news swirling around the company to help you make sense of this complex investment landscape.

Earning Overview

Boeing is projecting a loss of $5.46 per share, which can be partly attributed to the labor strikes they’ve faced and some charges in their defense segment. These are significant hurdles. Boeing is actively working to stabilize its supply chain and ramp up production on key aircraft models, like the 737. However, they’re still struggling with those frustrating delivery delays, which are something investors are watching very closely right now. These delays are a real issue, and every time Boeing misses a delivery target, it erodes investor confidence even further.

Fundamental Analysis

Boeing at a Crossroads in a Turbulent Market Boeing is undeniably at a crossroads, and to make things even more interesting, they’re facing these challenges against the backdrop of a pretty turbulent market. Just today, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones dropped by over 1.5%, reflecting the broader market’s worries over inflation and fears of a slowing economy. These concerns are definitely causing ripples in the market, and they’re particularly significant for a company like Boeing, which is already grappling with some internal issues of its own. It’s like they’re trying to fly through a storm with a few engine warnings flashing—how they handle these challenges could determine their future.

Recent Financial Performance

• Revenue: $19.5 billion, an 18% increase year-over-year.

• GAAP Loss per Share: $0.16.

• Core Loss per Share: $0.49.

• Free Cash Flow: Negative $2.3 billion.

While these results show improvement compared to previous periods, the company remains unprofitable.

Challenges Affecting Profitability

Boeing continues to face several challenges that impact its ability to achieve profitability:

• Supply Chain Issues: Ongoing disruptions have affected production and delivery schedules.

• Regulatory Scrutiny: The company is under intense regulatory oversight, particularly concerning the 737 Max program.

• Political Risks: Trade tensions, especially with China, have led to halted deliveries and potential reallocation of aircraft orders.

These factors contribute to Boeing's continued financial challenges.

Guidance

Supply Chain & Regulatory Risks: Ongoing supply chain issues and regulatory scrutiny, especially after the 737 Max incidents, continue to pose risks. Political & Geopolitical Factors: Trade tensions and political decisions can impact Boeing's operations and profitability. Financial Performance: While Boeing has secured significant contracts, challenges in free cash flow and profitability remain concerns for some analysts.

Technical Analysis

Let’s dive into some of those technical indicators. First, let’s talk about moving averages. In simple terms, moving averages smooth out price fluctuations over a set period of time to give us a clearer picture of the trend. We often look at two key moving averages: the 50-day and the 200-day. Right now, Boeing is trading below both of these averages, which is generally considered a bearish signal. It suggests that the stock is in a downtrend. Of course, that doesn’t mean the stock can’t go up from here, but technically speaking, the bears are in control at the moment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and What It Tells Us Next up, let’s take a look at the Relative Strength Index, or RSI. The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to assess whether a stock is overbought or oversold. Right now, Boeing’s RSI is approaching oversold territory. This doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time to jump in and buy, but it does suggest that the selling pressure might be starting to ease. This could be a glimmer of hope for investors looking for signs of stabilization. However, we need to be cautious and consider other factors too. For example, right now, $175 seems to be acting as a key support level—Boeing’s stock has bounced back from this price point a few times recently. On the other hand, Boeing’s stock has faced resistance around the $180 level, with $185-$190 acting as the upper limit for the stock in the near term. These resistance levels represent hurdles that Boeing needs to clear in order for the bulls to take charge and push the stock higher.

Risks and Challenges

Political and Regulatory Risks Impacting Boeing In a way, it's like a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers at these key levels, and we’re waiting to see who will ultimately gain the upper hand. But, there’s more to consider. We can’t overlook the elephant in the room—the political and regulatory risks Boeing faces. Former President Trump has been highly vocal about his criticisms of the Air Force One program, and his stance on tariffs has raised questions about Boeing’s future in the political landscape. It’s hard to ignore this kind of commentary, especially from someone who once held the highest office in the land. These political risks can definitely unsettle investors, and we’re already seeing some of those concerns reflected in the market’s response to Trump’s remarks.

Safety Concerns and the Ongoing Regulatory Scrutiny But let’s zoom out a bit—Boeing’s challenges go beyond just politics. One of the biggest ongoing issues for Boeing is its safety and regulatory scrutiny, particularly from the FAA. After the tragic incidents involving the 737 Max, the FAA has been keeping a very close eye on Boeing, and rightfully so. Just recently, there was an incident involving a 737 Max colliding with an airport vehicle. Thankfully, no one was seriously injured, but this incident serves as a reminder that safety concerns are still a major headwind for Boeing. The company has a long road ahead in terms of regaining the public’s trust, and that’s going to take time, effort, and consistent positive performance.

Mixed Signals from Boeing: Strategy or Desperation? In addition to all of that, Boeing is sending mixed signals. On one hand, they’ve been laying off workers in their space program, which could be seen as a sign of weakness, but on the other hand, they’re pursuing new contracts in the defense sector, which could signal future growth. These conflicting moves are a bit of a puzzle, aren’t they? Some analysts believe this is a strategic shift, with Boeing focusing on its core competencies and shedding less profitable ventures. Others view it as a sign of desperation, with Boeing trying to stay afloat by grabbing onto any opportunity that comes its way. At this point, only time will tell which interpretation is correct, but what’s clear is that Boeing is trying to adapt to a changing landscape.

Valuation

As of April 25, 2025,has a market capitalization of approximately $132.90 billion, based on a stock price of $176.26.

The company's enterprise value—an estimate of its total value, including debt—is around $162.87 billion. Boeing's valuation has increased by nearly 20% over the past year, reflecting a recovery from earlier challenges. A Safe Entry Price is around $120-$130.

Possible Investment Strategies for Boeing

So, we’ve covered a lot of ground today—earnings, technical analysis, political risks, and regulatory scrutiny. But for someone sitting at home right now wondering whether to buy, sell, or stay away from Boeing, what’s the bottom line? What should they be considering before making a decision?

Let’s break it down into a few possible scenarios:

The Long-Term Recovery Play: This is for the investor who believes Boeing can weather the storm and ultimately come out stronger on the other side. These investors are betting on the long-term growth of the aerospace industry and Boeing’s ability to capitalize on that. Their strategy might involve buying Boeing shares outright or considering long-dated call options. The risk here, of course, is that a prolonged economic downturn or some major geopolitical event could derail that recovery.

The Volatility Play: If you’re an investor who’s looking to make some quick profits off of Boeing’s price swings, options trading could be an attractive strategy. To be clear, options trading is not for the faint of heart. It involves a higher level of risk but can also offer higher potential rewards. Savvy investors might sell cash-secured puts or use strategies like bull call spreads to capitalize on Boeing’s price volatility. But this strategy requires a strong understanding of how options work and a careful approach to risk management.

The Defense Sector Hedge: For the more cautious investor who acknowledges the risks in Boeing’s commercial aviation side but sees potential in the company’s defense contracts, this strategy could make sense. Pairing Boeing with a more stable defense stock like Lockheed Martin (LMT) could help balance the risks. This approach gives you exposure to Boeing’s aerospace recovery while mitigating some of the uncertainties in their defense segment. Of course, this strategy limits your upside potential, as you’re not fully capitalizing on Boeing’s potential recovery, but it offers a diversified approach within the defense sector.

Conclusion

At the end of the day, Boeing is a company at a crossroads, grappling with a combination of earnings setbacks, supply chain issues, political risks, and constant regulatory scrutiny. But there are also those glimmers of hope—indications that the stock may be stabilizing, signs of potential recovery, and even the opportunity to capitalize on volatility. There’s no one-size-fits-all approach when it comes to investing in Boeing, and that’s why doing your due diligence is so important.

Boeing has a considerable amount of debt, which can be concerning in times of economic uncertainty. High levels of debt mean the company has substantial interest obligations, which could limit its ability to reinvest in growth or weather future downturns.

Boeing faces fierce competition from Airbus and also The New Challenges China C919 , its primary rival in the commercial aircraft sector. If Airbus outperforms Boeing or captures more market share, it could negatively affect Boeing’s growth prospects, especially in the commercial aviation space.

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

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