To The Moon

First, to confirm the timing: $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ is indeed scheduled to announce its first-quarter 2025 results after the U.S. market closes on Tuesday, 29 April 2025.

I do have a position in Grab in other account. The conference call for management discussion will follow at 8:00 PM U.S. Eastern Time that day (which is 8:00 AM Singapore Time on Wednesday, 30 April 2025).

Revenue: Expected to be around $761 million to $767 million. This signifies a solid year-over-year increase of approximately 17%.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Forecasts center around $0.00 to $0.01 (consensus ~$0.006). This marks a significant improvement from the net loss per share in Q1 2024 and reflects Grab's push towards profitability.

Grab Holdings (GRAB) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Its Share Price Declined By 10.49% Since

Grab had a positive earnings call on 19 Feb 2025 which saw its share price declined by 10.49% since.

The earnings call presented a strong performance with significant growth in on-demand GMV, positive EBITDA, and increased transacting users. However, there were challenges with mobility margins and higher incentives impacting costs. The strong ecosystem growth and financial services expansion highlight a positive trajectory, but the increased consumer incentives and fintech losses present some concerns.

Grab Holdings (GRAB) Guidance

During Grab's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Results Call, the company highlighted its strong financial performance and provided guidance for 2025. The company reported its first full year of positive group adjusted EBITDA at $313 million, at the upper end of its upgraded guidance, and positive full-year adjusted free cash flow of $136 million. Grab achieved a 20% year-on-year growth in on-demand GMV, driven by product initiatives such as Saver Rides and Priority Deliveries. The company plans to maintain this GMV growth momentum in 2025 while targeting a 40% to 50% increase in EBITDA and a 19% to 22% rise in revenue. Despite fluctuating margins due to market conditions and product mix shifts, Grab is committed to achieving long-term steady-state delivery margins of 4%+ and mobility margins of 9%+. In the financial services segment, the loan book grew to $536 million, with revenue reaching $74 million, although EBITDA losses were slightly higher quarter-on-quarter.

The company remains confident that its financial services will become profitable by the second half of next year. Additionally, Grab is actively exploring autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence to enhance its service offerings.

Key Focus Areas & Expectations For Grab Holdings (GRAB)

Profitability Trajectory: Following its first GAAP profitable quarter ($11 million) in Q4 2024 and achieving positive Group Adjusted EBITDA ($313 million) for the full year 2024, continued progress is crucial. Investors will look for positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q1, tracking towards the full-year 2025 guidance of $440 million - $470 million. Any commentary on achieving full-year GAAP net income in 2025 will also be important.

Revenue Growth & Seasonality: While the expected ~17% YoY revenue growth is strong, management had previously indicated Q1 might see slower growth compared to Q4 due to seasonality impacts (Lunar New Year, Ramadan), with an expected recovery in Q2. Confirmation of hitting the Q1 revenue target despite this will be key.

Segment Performance

Mobility: Continued recovery and growth in rides, balancing demand, driver supply, and competitive pressures. Margins will be watched (Q4 Segment Adjusted EBITDA margin was 8.4%).

Mobility margins dipped to 8.4%, although they remain stable year-on-year.

Grab achieved its first full year of positive group adjusted EBITDA of $313 million, at the upper end of upgraded guidance.

Deliveries: Growth in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), managing competition (foodpanda, GoTo/ShopeeFood), and increasing contribution from advertising (which reached 1.7% of Deliveries GMV in Q4).

On-demand GMV accelerated to 20% year-on-year, marking the strongest quarter ever for Grab.

Financial Services: Sustained growth in the lending portfolio (which grew 64% YoY in Q4) and progress for the digital banks (Digibank). GXS in Singapore doubled their loans year-on-year, and financial services are expected to be profitable by the second half of next year.

Despite revenue growth, EBITDA losses were slightly higher quarter-on-quarter due to increased direct costs and balance sheet provisions.

User Engagement: Growth in Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs), which reached a record 44 million in Q4 2024 (+17% YoY). Achieved a new record of 44 million MTUs, representing a 17% growth year-on-year.

Users transacting in both Food and Mart have average spend 4x higher and frequency uplifts 2.5x higher. Penetration of GMV for advertising improved to 1.7% from 1.4% last year.

Cost Efficiency: Evidence of ongoing cost management and operational efficiency improvements.

Consumer incentives as a percentage of GMV jumped to high levels, compared to the last year or two, driven by product adoption efforts.

Market Dynamics: Commentary on the competitive landscape across Southeast Asia and any updates related to market consolidation or strategic moves (like recent partnerships with AWS, OpenAI, BYD).

Full-Year Guidance: Reaffirmation or any adjustments to the previously issued full-year 2025 guidance (Revenue: $3.33B-$3.40B; Adjusted EBITDA: $440M-$470M). Management often guides conservatively initially.

Grab Holdings (GRAB) Price Target

Based on 24 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Grab in the last 3 months. The average price target is $5.71 with a high forecast of $8.00 and a low forecast of $4.50. The average price target represents a 15.90% change from the last price of $4.78.

I think Grab really need to give a pretty strong guidance on its full-year margins as well as how Grab is faring in the competitive landscape across Southeast Asia. Investors might also be watching for any updates related to market consolidation or strategic moves (like recent partnerships with AWS, OpenAI, BYD).

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

If we looked at how the RSI have been gaining traction after moving sideways, and last week, Grab have some investors confidence back and it is pushing for a daily uptrend, I believe this could be going strong.

The only thing I am worried would be Grab cost management in its consolidation effort, will this end up causing Grab to lose more of its margins.

So far, Grab looks to continue the daily uptrend next week, and we can watch closely before its earnings on Monday.

Summary

The market anticipates Grab will show continued solid top-line growth and significant improvement in profitability compared to last year. Key themes will be the sustainability of profitability (both Adjusted EBITDA and GAAP), managing growth across its core segments amid intense competition, user growth, and management's confidence in achieving their ambitious full-year 2025 financial targets.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Grab could live to the market expectation for its earnings and also can we expect a positive guidance for 2025 from Grab.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.