To The Moon

Earnings Calendar (28Apr25)

Some interesting earnings include Apple, Amazon, Airbnb, Microsoft, ExxonMobil, Chevron, DuPont, PayPal, Coca-Cola, Visa, Meta, UPS, and Baxter.

Let us look at UPS

The UPS stock price has been falling for over 1 year. Technical Analysis recommends a “Neutral” rating. The analysts’ sentiment recommends a “Buy” rating. The target price of $123.69 implies an upside of over 26%.

Revenue

• Growth Trend: UPS's revenue has grown from $58.363 billion in 2015 to $91.070 billion in 2024. The 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue is 4.6%, indicating steady growth.

• Key Milestones: Revenue growth was strong in 2020 (14.2%) and 2021 (15.0%), driven by e-commerce demand during the pandemic. However, there was a decline of -9.3% in 2023, followed by a modest 0.1% increase in 2024, reflecting a slowdown in demand.

• Competitive Advantage: UPS’s consistent revenue growth highlights its strong position in the logistics and delivery sector, benefiting from its extensive global network and leadership in e-commerce shipping.

Operating Profit

• Growth Trend: Operating profit fluctuated, growing from $7.668 billion in 2015 to $8.46 billion in 2024, with a peak of $12.81 billion in 2021. The operating margin declined from 13.1% in 2015 to 10.0% in 2024.

• Competitive Advantage: Despite margin compression, UPS’s ability to maintain operating profits reflects its operational scale and efficiency, bolstered by its integrated air and ground delivery network.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

• Growth Trend: EPS grew from $5.35 in 2015 to $6.75 in 2024, with a 10-year CAGR of 7.5%.

• Volatility: EPS growth was inconsistent, with significant drops in 2016 (-27.9%) and 2023, reflecting sensitivity to economic cycles and operational challenges.

• Competitive Advantage: The long-term EPS growth demonstrates UPS’s ability to generate shareholder value, supported by its strong market position, though recent declines highlight challenges in maintaining profitability.

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

• Valuation: The P/E ratio is 14.5, suggesting UPS is reasonably valued relative to its earnings, aligning with its stable but slower growth profile.

• 10-Year Median Returns: The 10-year median return on assets (ROA) is 9.7%, return on equity (ROE) is 157.1%, and return on invested capital (ROIC) is 15.9%, indicating solid historical returns.

• Competitive Advantage: The moderate P/E ratio and strong ROE reflect UPS’s efficient use of capital and stable valuation, supported by its established role in logistics.

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

• Growth Trend: The EV/FCF ratio is 15.6, and the 10-year CAGR for FCF is 6.1%, indicating healthy cash flow growth. The 10-year median FCF margin is 6.4%, showing consistent cash generation.

• Capital Structure: The median debt/equity ratio is 5.9, and debt/assets is 0.4, reflecting a leveraged but manageable balance sheet.

• Competitive Advantage: Strong FCF growth supports UPS’s ability to fund dividends, invest in infrastructure, and manage debt, reinforcing its competitive position in logistics.

The EPS and revenue forecast for UPS are 1.44 and $ 21.22 B. Although UPS is attractive, the recent revenue decline is a concern. With a low P/E ratio and profitability, it can be worth monitoring. I prefer to be a spectator and not an investor for now.

@TigerStars

$United Parcel Service Inc(UPS)$

$Apple(AAPL)$