To The Moon

With a GPU rally igniting the sector, AMD leads the charge—but can it really break $140, or are there more electrifying chip bets elsewhere?

Let’s not beat around the silicon bush: $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ just rallied nearly 9% and suddenly everyone's talking about a “snapback.” Piper Sandler says Q4 will be the bounce-back quarter for AMD’s GPU business, and that’s sent the stock to $127—its best stretch in weeks. So the question on every investor’s lips is this: is this rally different? And could AMD, still licking its wounds from a China-related $800 million charge, power past the elusive $140 price target?

Spoiler alert—yes, it could. But should it?

AMD stretches—then snaps back into the AI spotlight

The Anatomy of a Snapback

AMD’s strength right now comes largely from the promise of recovering demand for its data centre and AI-focused GPUs. Analysts foresee the bulk of export-related charges falling behind AMD by Q4, clearing the runway for stronger financials. That optimism, paired with the broader market’s tech tailwinds, has reinvigorated sentiment. With the stock up more than 5% year-to-date, it's outperforming the S&P 500, although the 1-year return of -19.76% reminds us just how brutal the prior correction was.

While the $800 million charge related to China export restrictions is already priced into sentiment, what’s arguably more important is the uncertainty it introduces around AMD’s long-term positioning in a geopolitically sensitive supply chain. The Q4 resolution, then, isn’t just about accounting clean-up—it’s a de-risking moment. If AMD can demonstrate that its pivot away from China-bound GPU revenues hasn’t dented data centre traction, particularly for AI and HPC workloads in the West, that would reinforce investor confidence in the company’s global diversification strategy.

So, is this time different? In a way, yes. Unlike previous rallies fuelled by hype (and arguably a bit too much Reddit), this one is rooted in revenue growth: AMD posted a 35.9% YoY revenue increase and—more impressively—a 476.4% explosion in earnings growth last quarter. It’s not vapourware; it’s real margin expansion.

Can It Push Through $140?

Let’s look under the hood. At a price of $127.10, AMD trades at a steep trailing P/E of 92.77, but its forward P/E is a much more palatable 33.90. The PEG ratio? A rather attractive 0.69. That implies the market is underestimating AMD’s long-term earnings potential, which is rare for a growth story.

But here’s the twist: despite strong fundamentals and good forward estimates, AMD is still far off its 52-week high of $187.28. That’s a massive 47% potential upside if it can reclaim past glories. Reaching $140 would only require a 10% gain from here—eminently doable if Q3 and Q4 earnings confirm Piper Sandler’s bullish stance.

From a technical standpoint, AMD faces minor resistance at the $130–$132 zone—levels where prior rally attempts in April and March faltered. A convincing breakout above $132 with high volume would clear a path toward $140, which aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement level from its 52-week high of $187. Traders may also eye a bullish cup-and-handle formation forming on the daily chart, with $140 as the potential breakout trigger. If the price holds above the 200-day moving average into earnings season, it strengthens the probability of this pattern playing out.

However, beware the valuation mirage. AMD's profitability metrics—ROE at 3.9% and ROA at 2.56%—are dwarfed by Nvidia's (117.32% and 79.69%, respectively). AMD is on the right track, but it's not the apex predator in this silicon jungle.

A quick glance at the tape reveals the technical tension building—where price, momentum, and conviction now converge just below resistance.

Where price meets pressure. The $140 test begins

One Thing Investors Might Miss

Now, here's a little nugget you won’t hear from the CNBC soundbites: AMD’s total cash of $7.31 billion and low debt/equity ratio (just 8.17%) give it real firepower. This balance sheet resilience is crucial in an industry increasingly shaped by geopolitics. With tighter export controls and AI arms races ahead, being well-capitalised is a competitive advantage hiding in plain sight.

Even more subtle: AMD’s massive institutional ownership (over 68%) implies big money isn't just trading momentum—it’s parked for the long game. That tends to support price floors during pullbacks.

Are There Better Chip Bets?

Let’s not pretend AMD is the only show in town. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, the obvious heavyweight, has already priced in much of its AI euphoria. At a 45.34 P/E and an eye-watering price/sales ratio of 24.1, Nvidia may well grow into its valuation—but it’s certainly no bargain. Intel, meanwhile, looks cheap but for good reason. With negative returns on assets and equity, it's still finding its footing.

So, is there more upside elsewhere? For aggressive investors, AMD might actually be the middle ground: not as frothy as Nvidia, not as troubled as Intel, and trading at a forward P/E discount to its AI-fuelled peers. If you believe in a sustained AI boom and AMD’s ability to monetise it (especially with MI300 chips in full swing), then the risk/reward setup is compelling.

Of course, this optimism comes with caveats. The semiconductor cycle is notoriously sensitive to macro slowdowns, and should enterprise AI demand slow—or capital expenditure tighten amid higher-for-longer interest rates—AMD's growth projections could face pressure. Additionally, Nvidia’s dominance and Intel’s efforts to reboot its foundry business mean the competitive landscape remains unforgiving. Execution risk around product launches like the MI300 can’t be ignored either—especially in a market where “close enough” isn’t good enough.

So… Will AMD Surge Past $140?

It’s certainly within reach. The short interest is low, volumes are rising, and the 50-day moving average (at $104.55) is well below the current price, signalling strong technical momentum. AMD is also trading just above its 200-day average of $124.35—another bullish indicator.

Looking ahead, Q3 earnings in late October will be critical. Investors should watch not just revenue growth but data centre segment performance, margins, and commentary on MI300 adoption rates. A strong sequential uptick in data centre GPU shipments—and any bullish forward guidance tied to AI-specific workloads—could be the inflection point. Free cash flow conversion, which has recently strengthened, will also be key as a sign that growth is translating into real economic return.

Momentum builds as fundamentals ignite the breakout path

Final Verdict: Buy the Dip or Skip the Trip?

In my view, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ offers one of the smarter risk-adjusted opportunities in the chip space right now. It’s not the cheapest, nor the most profitable, but it's a quality compounder that’s managed to survive China charges, fight off Nvidia’s shadow, and still post eye-catching earnings growth.

This rally feels different because the narrative has caught up with the numbers. And while $140 might not happen overnight, I wouldn’t be surprised to see AMD charging through that ceiling by early 2026—perhaps sooner if Q4 indeed marks the snapback Piper Sandler anticipates.

Bottom line? I’m not just watching AMD—I’m warming up my buy finger.

Because in this chip war, second place still gets you paid.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @Tiger_Earnings @TigerClub@ @TigerWire