To The Moon

Summary:

Terra Incognita profited $4648 for week 29 (14th July to 18th July). Let’s find out how.

Breakdown profit of $5887 from options trading and took loss of -$1239 from stocks trading. Of the 49 stock counters traded, 27 were profitable and 22 were unprofitable. 

Analyze 3 key trades that impact trade performance in coming sections.

Profit and Loss for WW29 2025

Top 10 Profitable Trades

For the top 10 profitable trades, they range from $427 at #10 to $4956 for the most profitable trade.  

1. Netflix (NFLX)

NFLX Daily Chart

The most profitable trade was on NFLX at $4956. Below are some possible reasons why Netflix trades performed well this week.  

Netflix (NFLX) Weekly Performance Summary (July 14–18, 2025)

Positions I owned on NFLX:

2 short calls at $1300 strikes expired on 18th July worthless.

The short calls were rolled from $1200 and then $1250 to eventually settled at $1300 before Netflix reversed after a sell the news event despite a good earnings call.

 Conclusion

Netflix faced a volatile week driven by mixed analyst sentiment, an overseas insider trading probe (indirectly impacting sentiment), and post-earnings profit-taking.

While technicals signal short-term oversold conditions, options markets and the $1,200 support breach suggest lingering caution.

Long-term bulls highlight ad-tier monetization and content dominance, but near-term risks include valuation concerns and regulatory scrutiny.

My Possible Trade Actions:

None. The margins required to commit on NFLX is high due to its expensive stocks. I might be able to generate better returns trading lower valued stocks with higher volatility since NFLX earnings had passes and volatility had dropped. So I’m moving on.

Price Action & Technical Analysis

Weekly Close: $1,209.24 (-4.18% WoW), with a high of $1,277.50 (July 17) and low of $1,201.01 (July 18).

Key Moves:

Sharp 5.1% drop on July 18 erased earlier gains, closing below the 50-day moving average.

RSI: 38 (approaching oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term rebound).

Support/Resistance: Immediate support at $1,200 (psychological level), resistance at $1,245.68 (July 18 high).

Analyst Sentiment & Consensus

Upgrades:

Guggenheim: Raised target to $1,400 (bullish on ad-tier growth and content pipeline).

Bernstein: Target increased to $1,390 (streaming leadership).

Downgrades:

KGI Securities: Cut to Neutral ($1,350 target).

Goldman Sachs: Maintained Hold ($1,140).

Consensus: 42 analysts project a mean target of $1,303.19 (range: $726–$1,600).

2. Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI)

SMCI Daily Chart

The 2nd most profitable trade was SMCI at $2622. Below are some possible reasons why SMCI trades performed well this week.   

SMCI Weekly Performance Summary (July 14-18, 2025)

Positions I owned on SMCI:

1)     Long position with average cost $669.98 (yes still in paper loss after their disastrous drop after the accounting scandals)

2)     Short calls with various Strikes at $50 and $55 to serve as covered calls on my long positions. 

Conclusion: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) gained 4.1% during the week, closing at $51.77, with mixed analyst sentiment and bullish technical indicators offset by lingering bearish risks.

My Possible Trade Actions:

Continue selling covered calls at slightly out of the money positions to capture premiums  

Key Performance Metrics

Weekly Range: $48.78 (July 14 low) → $54.20 (July 15 high)

Analyst Actions

JP Morgan (July 17):

Upgraded price target: $35 → $46 (31% increase).

Maintained "Neutral" rating due to valuation concerns.

Citi (July 18):

Raised target: $37 → $52 (40.5% upside).

Cited AI infrastructure demand and improved margins.

Consensus: Average price target $42.89 (17 analysts), implying -17% downside from current levels 3.

Technical Analysis

Trend:

Bullish Momentum: Trading above 50-day moving average ($47.50).

Resistance: $54.20 (July 15 high).

Support: $48.78 (July 14 low).

Key Indicators:

RSI: 58 (neutral, approaching overbought territory).

Short Interest: 18.3% of float, raising squeeze potential.

Top 10 Unprofitable Trades

For the top 10 most unprofitable trades, they range from -$92 at #10 to -$4036 for the most unprofitable one.

3. Robinhood (HOOD)

HOOD Daily Chart

The most unprofitable trade last week was Robinhood (HOOD) at -$4036. Below are some possible reasons why HOOD trades were unprofitable.  

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) Weekly Performance Summary (July 14–18, 2025)

Positions I owned on HOOD:

4 contracts of short calls with strike at $87 and expiring on 1st Aug.   

As evidence from the company performance summary, there are lots of positive news and bullish momentum for HOOD in the Crypto space so my bearish trades took the brunt of the losses by trading the wrong side.

Conclusion:

HOOD’s bullish momentum faces headwinds from insider selling, regulatory risks, and stretched valuations. While options traders bet on further upside (targeting $110–$115), technical resistance at $113.44 and institutional hedging at $105 suggest consolidation is likely. Long-term growth in crypto/options adoption remains compelling, but near-term caution is warranted.

My Possible Trade Actions:

1)     Continue to roll the short calls to buy more time till HOOD reversed.

2)     Take loss when HOOD hit $110 and move on (more likely)  

Price Action & Technical Analysis

Weekly Close: $109.74 ( +9.78% WoW ), with a high of $113.44 (July 18) and low of $97.16 (July 15).

Key Technical:

Support: $105 (heavy put open interest at this strike) | Resistance: $113.44 (52-week high).

Volatility: Elevated implied volatility (67–75%) reflects earnings anticipation and momentum-driven trading.

Momentum: Stock surged 155% YTD, closing near all-time highs but showing signs of overextension.

Analyst Sentiment & Consensus

Upgrades:

Piper Sandler: Raised target to $110 (from $70), citing growth in crypto trading and margin expansion.

Citigroup: Doubled target to $100 (Neutral rating maintained).

Consensus:

Average Target: $83.57–$85.29 (below current price), with 12 "Buy," 6 "Hold," and 1 "Sell" ratings 78.

Bearish Concerns: Valuation stretched at 38x forward P/E; regulatory scrutiny over tokenized private shares (e.g., SpaceX).

Insider Activity

CEO Vlad Tenev sold 385,485 shares ($39.3M) on July 16 at ~$101.90 14.

Additional sales of $11.6M reported under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans 3336.

Disclaimer:

This journal post reflects this writer’s self-analysis of his own trading performance and not meant to influence anyone else.

Your opinion is your own and writer respect differing views. He is happy to engage in constructive dialogues to better his trading edge.

Some part of company content is intentionally generated using Tiger AI which is really useful to broadly summarize what might affect the stock movement. 

Some content information and analysis tools used here resided within a paid wall that would require subscriptions to access.

$Netflix(NFLX)$ $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ $Strategy(MSTR)$ $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$