To The Moon

$Figma(FIG)$ $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$

The year 2025 has been dominated by one overarching theme: the accelerating demand for artificial intelligence. Investors continue to hunt for opportunities across the AI ecosystem, but they face a fundamental choice. Should they chase the infrastructure providers—the “picks and shovels” of the AI boom—or should they seek upside in application-layer platforms that stand to benefit from AI integration?

Two recent IPOs capture this contrast vividly: CoreWeave and Figma.

• CoreWeave has surged past $100 per share, up 160% year-to-date, after Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $116 price target. The bullish thesis rests on CoreWeave’s positioning as a critical enabler of the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure economy.

• Figma, by contrast, has seen a more muted reception. JPMorgan began coverage with a Neutral rating and a $65 target price, below the $75 average target from FactSet’s analyst consensus. Despite widespread recognition of Figma’s design dominance, questions remain about its growth trajectory and competitive moat in a crowded SaaS field.

This divergence sparks a bigger question for investors: Which of these two new listings has more potential to surprise us over the next decade? And in a market chasing AI dreams, is betting on CoreWeave’s pipes a safer play than believing in Figma’s design story?

CoreWeave: The “Picks & Shovels” of AI

CoreWeave operates in one of the most lucrative segments of the AI value chain: specialized GPU cloud services. While Nvidia, AMD, and Intel design the chips powering large AI models, enterprises need scalable, flexible platforms to deploy them. That’s where CoreWeave steps in, offering cloud infrastructure optimized for AI workloads—from training large language models to serving inference at scale.

The Infrastructure Advantage

There are several reasons why infrastructure plays like CoreWeave attract investor enthusiasm:

1. Recurring, sticky demand – Once enterprises build AI workloads on a particular infrastructure provider, switching costs are high. This translates into long-term recurring revenue.

2. Secular tailwinds – Regardless of which AI applications win, all require compute, storage, and networking. CoreWeave sits upstream of the entire ecosystem.

3. “Picks and shovels” analogy – Much like the suppliers of tools during the California Gold Rush, CoreWeave profits regardless of which miner (AI application) strikes gold.

In the current AI cycle, this positioning gives CoreWeave a defensive growth profile—investors don’t need to guess whether ChatGPT, Claude, or another model wins. They only need to believe that AI adoption will continue expanding.

Valuation Context

At $100 per share and 160% YTD gains, CoreWeave now trades at a premium multiple relative to cloud infrastructure peers. Analysts project triple-digit revenue growth in 2025, tapering to 40–50% annually by the late decade. The $116 Cantor price target implies that analysts still see upside, though it rests on the assumption that AI infrastructure remains supply-constrained and pricing power holds.

If CoreWeave can scale profitably while maintaining its specialization edge, its valuation may prove justified. But if cloud hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) aggressively compete in its niche, the bull case could weaken.

Figma: The Contrarian SaaS Play

Figma is the leading collaborative design platform, widely adopted across enterprises, startups, and creative teams. Its intuitive interface, real-time collaboration features, and developer integrations make it a staple for product design.

Yet, the market’s reception to Figma’s IPO has been lukewarm compared to CoreWeave. Despite analyst consensus being broadly positive—average target of $75—JPMorgan’s Neutral initiation with a $65 price target reflects broader investor caution.

Challenges Facing Figma

1. Valuation overhang – Figma’s IPO came with high expectations, especially after Adobe’s failed $20 billion acquisition attempt. Investors question whether Figma can live up to those lofty implied valuations.

2. Slowing growth – As with many SaaS platforms, growth has normalized post-pandemic, making Figma less exciting compared to AI infrastructure.

3. Intensifying competition – Adobe, Microsoft, Canva, and AI-native startups are increasingly entering the design-collaboration space, eroding Figma’s differentiation.

The Bull Case

Despite these headwinds, Figma still has an enviable brand and loyal user base. Its collaborative-first approach makes it sticky, especially in enterprise design workflows. The bull thesis is that Figma will successfully integrate AI to accelerate design, scale beyond niche use cases, and monetize its growing community of developers.

This makes Figma more of a contrarian growth story: Wall Street has tempered expectations, meaning upside surprises could deliver outsized returns.

TAM Comparisons: AI Infrastructure vs. Design Collaboration

To understand why CoreWeave trades at a premium, consider the difference in total addressable markets (TAM):

• AI Infrastructure TAM: Analysts estimate global AI infrastructure spending could exceed $1 trillion by 2030, driven by demand for GPU compute, networking, and storage. Even a small share of this pie supports multi-billion revenue potential for CoreWeave.

• Design Collaboration TAM: The collaborative design market is significant but smaller—likely in the tens of billions by 2030. While still attractive, its ceiling is lower, and growth is more dependent on enterprise adoption cycles.

This contrast underscores why investors are piling into CoreWeave: the upside is both larger and more certain.

Historical Parallels: Pipes vs. Apps

History offers clues for today’s debate.

• Dot-com era (1990s): Infrastructure providers like Cisco, Oracle, and Sun Microsystems thrived alongside application plays like Netscape. But while many apps faded, the infrastructure providers remained critical.

• Cloud era (2010s): AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud built the backbone of the internet economy. Meanwhile, countless SaaS apps competed, with only a few (Zoom, Salesforce) breaking out.

• AI era (2020s): The pattern may repeat: infrastructure players like Nvidia and CoreWeave become dominant, while application-layer players face tougher competition and faster commoditization.

If this analogy holds, CoreWeave’s positioning as an AI infrastructure provider could make it a safer long-term bet than application platforms like Figma.

Risk Factors

CoreWeave Risks

1. Competition – Hyperscalers could undercut CoreWeave’s niche advantage.

2. Capital intensity – Scaling infrastructure is expensive, raising the risk of overexpansion.

3. Cyclicality – If AI adoption slows, CoreWeave’s growth assumptions may falter.

Figma Risks

1. Saturation – Growth could stall if enterprises consolidate around Adobe or Microsoft ecosystems.

2. Monetization pressure – Expanding ARPU (average revenue per user) is harder in price-sensitive SaaS markets.

3. AI disruption – New AI-native competitors could leapfrog Figma’s offering.

Who Still Has the Power to Surprise?

• CoreWeave: The momentum favorite, with strong near-term catalysts (Wall Street upgrades, demand visibility, infrastructure scarcity). Surprises here would likely be upside on revenue growth or new partnerships. But expectations are already high.

• Figma: The contrarian underdog. Expectations are low, making upside surprises more impactful. If Figma delivers better-than-expected growth or unveils breakthrough AI integration, the stock could re-rate significantly.

In essence: CoreWeave is the “safe” AI bet, Figma the asymmetric bet.

Final Takeaways for Investors

• AI infrastructure (CoreWeave) looks like the smarter long-term bet for those seeking exposure to a trillion-dollar growth engine. The business is mission-critical, recurring, and benefits from secular tailwinds.

• Design SaaS (Figma) remains compelling for investors with a contrarian bent. While it lacks the certainty of CoreWeave’s growth, its muted expectations leave room for upside surprises.

The dichotomy between these two names reflects a broader market truth: in every technology cycle, the picks and shovels often deliver more consistent returns than the dream applications built on top.

For investors in 2025, the decision boils down to risk appetite. Do you want the steady compounding potential of CoreWeave’s AI pipes, or are you willing to bet that Figma’s creativity layer can deliver the next surprise growth story?