To The Moon

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I believe Broadcom will close in the Flat range (-5% to +5%) on September 5, most likely between $295 and $300. Earnings will be strong, but resistance at $300 and September’s historical weakness will cap the upside.

📊 Macro & Seasonality Context

September has historically been the weakest month for equities. Seasonality charts confirm:

• S&P 500: steady early, sharp fade after mid-month.

• Apple & Meta: typically drag indices lower.

• Amazon & Microsoft: relative stabilisers.

• Tesla: volatile, often resilient mid-month.

The McClellan seasonal overlay illustrates how Fed cuts, tariff shocks, and geopolitical surprises can distort the September path. This year’s critical dates include:

• Sept 5: US August payrolls, pivotal for Fed policy (89% cut probability).

• Sept 13–16: CPI, PPI, retail sales, sentiment surveys.

• Sept 16–17: Fed policy meeting.

• Sept 17–18: Trump UK visit and Bank of England decision.

Markets ended August on record highs (S&P 500 at 6,500+). Europe’s banks surged to post-GFC peaks, while AI-linked media stocks stumbled. September is the liquidity flush when managers rebalance.

📈 Broadcom (AVGO) Technical Setup

Broadcom trades at $297.39, right inside my entry zone ($316.89–$281.73).

• Resistance: $299.98.

• Support: $248.51, the key AI hardware level.

• Fibonacci retracement signals a multi-quarter correctional target near $96.12.

• Weekly chart: extended trend still intact.

• 4H chart: clustering at upper Bollinger/Keltner, flashing exhaustion.

Message from the charts: correction has started, but earnings could still fuel a short-lived test of resistance.

💰 Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast

• EPS: $1.65 vs $1.24 (+33.06% YoY).

• Revenue: $15.83B vs $13.07B (+21.06% YoY).

• EBIT: $9.95B vs $7.95B (+25.16% YoY).

Revenue has more than doubled since 2018 (16.7% CAGR). AVGO’s backbone role in AI networking is the growth driver.

📰 Recent Flow

• Analysts reaffirm buys, citing AI dominance.

• Nasdaq dip (-4.3%) showed short-term fragility, not structural weakness.

• Harbin automotive affiliate procurement irrelevant to AVGO.

🏦 Pelosi Factor

Nancy Pelosi exercised call options last year at $80, now holding 20,000 shares worth up to $5M. With gains over 70%, her position underscores institutional-level conviction.

🍏 Apple Partnership

Earlier this month, Apple pledged an additional $100 billion to U.S. manufacturing, bringing its total domestic commitment to $600 billion. CEO Tim Cook named Broadcom as a key partner in building Apple’s communications devices.

This link between Apple’s consumer hardware ecosystem and Broadcom’s hyperscaler relationships uniquely positions AVGO to straddle both consumer-facing electronics and enterprise AI infrastructure. Apple’s endorsement amplifies Broadcom’s credibility, while hyperscaler reliance cements its indispensable role in data movement, connectivity, and next-generation AI applications.

📊 AI Market Positioning

• Nvidia holds 92% of GPUs, but Broadcom owns the connectivity backbone.

• Hyperscalers (AWS, Google, Microsoft, Alibaba) rely on AVGO hardware.

• Apple’s infrastructure expansion reinforces Broadcom’s dual exposure to consumer electronics and enterprise AI build-outs.

This makes Broadcom an essential enabler of the AI era across the full technology stack.

🔮 Options & Analysts

• Options show bullish flow at $300/$320, hedges at $290/$240.

• Analysts: 29 buys, 12 recommend, 2 holds.

• PT range: $202–$400, mean $301.31, aligned with current levels.

Consensus: fairly valued short-term, but strategic AI positioning remains intact.

I believe the most likely outcome is that Broadcom will remain in the Flat range (-5% to +5%) into September 5, closing between $295 and $300. To frame it in probabilities: Flat 70%, Green (5% to 10%) 20%, Red (-10% to -5%) 10%.

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