To The Moon

1. Portfolio Holding Check

TSMC (-8% pre-market, closed -1%): The sharp intraday recovery suggests investors saw the revocation of the waiver as serious but not catastrophic, at least for now. TSMC’s fundamentals remain strong, but its China exposure will keep volatility high.

Nvidia (-3% on open): This is in line with the historical pattern you mentioned—sell-off after earnings, then recovery as long-term growth drivers (AI chips, datacentres) reassert themselves.

Broader semis: Pulled lower in sympathy, but this looks more like a knee-jerk reaction than a structural derating.

If your portfolio is heavily weighted in semiconductors, risk management is key here—hedges, cash buffers, or selective trimming could help reduce volatility exposure.

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2. Timing Bottom-Fishing

Short-term: Volatility will likely persist until there’s clarity on the scope of US restrictions. A genuine bottom may only form once the market has fully priced in the regulatory risks. Watching volume on sell-offs is useful—capitulation selling often signals a bottom.

Medium-term: The fundamentals for AI and advanced chips remain intact. Demand from hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) continues to be strong. If Nvidia and peers consolidate near support levels (for Nvidia, $185–$190 looks important), that could be a bottom-fishing entry.

Macro overlay: With Fed cuts expected later this year, liquidity could support risk assets, semis included.

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📌 My view: Bottom-fishing makes sense when (a) regulatory news flow stabilises, (b) price action consolidates with reduced volatility, and (c) valuations reset closer to historical averages. For high-quality names like TSMC and Nvidia, buying on dips into strong support zones rather than chasing rebounds may be the prudent play.