My take on post-earnings rally odds: 1) Amazon.com, best setup. AWS has the clearest path from AI capex to revenue. If AWS growth prints >30% and backlog conversion accelerates, upside remains. UBS’s +38% FY26 is bold, but plausible if enterprise AI demand inflects sharply. 2) Microsoft, highest upside and risk. If Azure slows by 4pp, the bear case bites fast. Capex is huge, so revenue acceleration must visibly follow. 3) Alphabet, strong fundamentals, but expectations are stretched. Anything short of near-perfect execution risks downside. 4) Apple, steady but least catalyst-rich. Expect Services, China recovery, and measured AI messaging under John Ternus, rather than a major hardware surprise. Most likely rally: Amazon. Most fragile: Google. Biggest swing factor: Azure growth.
Twilio’s blowout quarter is a reminder that AI winners are not only chipmakers. Application-layer and workflow-layer beneficiaries are beginning to re-rate. For Palantir Technologies, next Monday is important. What matters most: • AIP conversion rate, pilots turning into scaled contracts • Commercial customer growth, not just government wins • Average contract size, proof AI spend is expanding wallet share • Operating margin, showing AI growth is profitable growth Bull case: If Palantir shows AIP is becoming embedded enterprise infrastructure, markets may start viewing PLTR as an AI operating system / agent platform, closer in narrative to enterprise software leaders rather than a defence analytics name. That could spark a sharp rerating. Risk: Valuation remains rich. Good numbers may stil
Advanced Micro Devices is approaching a pivotal print. Bull case: • MI300X / MI350 revenue guidance could confirm AMD is becoming a genuine second source for AI compute, not merely a niche alternative to NVIDIA. • If management signals sustained hyperscaler adoption, the market may start valuing AMD more like an AI infrastructure compounder than a cyclical chipmaker. • Commercial traction, including ecosystem monetisation, strengthens the narrative that AMD’s AI stack is broadening. Risk case: • Expectations are elevated. A beat may already be priced in. • Hyperscaler in-house silicon caps long-term upside multiple expansion. • Gross margin guidance matters. Strong revenue with weaker profitability could trigger a classic sell-the-news move. My view: Near term, sell-the-news risk is real,
Breadth narrowing is a warning sign, but not an immediate sell signal. With ~$725B in committed AI capex, strong hyperscaler earnings, and supply bottlenecks in memory, power and cooling, the structural bull case remains intact. My take: bull run likely continues into May, but leadership broadens and volatility rises. I would not chase index highs here. Prefer buying pullbacks or rotating into laggards. Catch-up sectors: • Utilities / power infrastructure, the hidden AI backbone • Industrials, cooling, electrical equipment, grid upgrades • Healthcare, defensive growth at better valuations • Financials, if rates stay higher for longer • Selective small caps, if breadth expands again Mega-cap AI still leads, but second-order beneficiaries may offer better risk/reward now. The next leg up ma
April’s surge is powerful, but a +10.4% monthly gain for the S&P 500 and +14.8% for the Nasdaq Composite also raises the odds of near-term consolidation. My view: Will the bull run continue in May? Likely yes, but choppier. Momentum, AI capex visibility, and resilient earnings remain supportive. However, after such a steep vertical move, markets often rotate rather than move straight up. Chase or wait? Prefer selective buying on pullbacks (3 to 7%), rather than chasing broad index highs. Risk/reward is less attractive after a euphoric run. Which sector catches up? 1. Financials, especially quality banks if rates stay elevated 2. Healthcare, lagging but defensive growth looks attractive 3. Industrials / power infrastructure, key beneficiaries of AI buildout (grid, cooling, electrical eq
My take: bull trend intact, but May may turn choppier. The bullish case remains strong: AI capex is real, hyperscaler spending is accelerating, and earnings from GOOG, AMZN and MSFT continue to validate infrastructure demand. That supports semis, memory and data centre supply chains. But narrow breadth is a warning sign. If leadership gets crowded, even strong markets can see a healthy 5 to 10% reset. Would I chase? Not aggressively at highs. I would scale in on dips rather than FOMO buy breakouts. Catch-up sectors: 1. MU / storage 2. VRT / power-cooling infra 3. Industrials tied to grid upgrades 4. Select software names that monetise AI, not just spend on it My base case: higher by year-end, bumpier in May.
My view: the biggest winners are still the bottleneck owners. 1. NVDA, the compute toll booth. If GPU demand stays supply-constrained, pricing power remains exceptional. 2. MU / HBM memory suppliers, because memory is now mission-critical, not a commodity add-on. 3. VRT and cooling/power infrastructure names, the overlooked backbone of AI scaling. 4. Fibre/networking plays such as ANET, where bandwidth becomes as valuable as compute. 5. Select utilities, land and data centre REITs, where scarcity can drive repricing. On sky-high capex: bullish near term, but execution risk rises sharply. If AI monetisation lags infrastructure build, markets may start questioning ROI. Until then, the shovel sellers are still in the strongest position.
My take: 1. I think OCBC OCBC will close at S$22.35 on 9 May (Fri). 2. I think UOB UOB will close at S$36.90 on 8 May (earnings day). 3. Will OCBC or UOB match DBS DBS’s wealth management fee surprise? My vote: Yes, but OCBC is more likely to surprise on the upside than UOB. Reason: DBS just posted record wealth fees, showing client activity remains strong despite rate headwinds. OCBC has already been delivering standout wealth growth momentum, while UOB’s upside may be steadier rather than explosive. If I had to pick one dark horse for a “DBS-like” fee surprise: OCBC.
My pick right now: 🥇 Google Super quarter. Cloud growth accelerated, Gemini monetisation is gaining traction, and Search remains a cash machine. Rare mix of growth + profitability + AI upside. US$400 is realistic if momentum holds. 🥈 Amazon AWS acceleration looks real. Anthropic tie-up + Trainium + enterprise AI demand give Amazon strong infrastructure leverage. 🥉 Meta I would buy dips, not exit. Core ads remain elite, but US$145B capex shocked markets. Risk is ROI timing, not business weakness. 4️⃣ Microsoft Still strong, but Azure expectations are very high. Team GOOG + AMZN for cleaner near-term risk/reward.
Short answer: not materially in the near term, but the moat may narrow at the edges over time. Why NVIDIA still leads: 1. CUDA remains the moat Software lock-in is powerful. Enterprises have built workflows around CUDA, cuDNN, NCCL and Nvidia’s full AI stack. Switching cost is very high. 2. Best-in-class full stack Google TPU and Amazon Trainium are strong, but mostly internal workload optimisers, not broad ecosystem platforms at Nvidia’s scale. 3. Inference is the battleground Custom silicon can win in narrow inference tasks where cost per token matters. That can chip away at some share. Where risk is real: hyperscalers reserve proprietary chips for their own fleets compression / quantisation lowers compute intensity competitor ecosystems mature Where Nvidia stays dominant: frontier model