1) Amazon.com, best setup. AWS has the clearest path from AI capex to revenue. If AWS growth prints >30% and backlog conversion accelerates, upside remains. UBS’s +38% FY26 is bold, but plausible if enterprise AI demand inflects sharply.
2) Microsoft, highest upside and risk. If Azure slows by 4pp, the bear case bites fast. Capex is huge, so revenue acceleration must visibly follow.
3) Alphabet, strong fundamentals, but expectations are stretched. Anything short of near-perfect execution risks downside.
4) Apple, steady but least catalyst-rich. Expect Services, China recovery, and measured AI messaging under John Ternus, rather than a major hardware surprise.
Most likely rally: Amazon.
Most fragile: Google.
Biggest swing factor: Azure growth.
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