To The Moon

My take: Bitcoin holding US$80,000 is plausible, but Circle’s rally may be running ahead of fundamentals near term. Bitcoin at US$80K The level matters psychologically. ETF inflows remain supportive, and regulatory clarity is improving. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed US$80K, with momentum traders now watching whether it can hold above that zone for several sessions before calling it a true breakout.  If risk sentiment improves further, US$85K to US$90K becomes feasible. Failure to hold US$80K could mean a fast retest lower. Circle Internet Group flywheel Bull case: 1. Higher USDC adoption from clearer rules 2. Higher reserve income while rates remain elevated 3. Network effects via payments, remittance, settlement rails But caution: The CLARITY Act is a double-edged sword. It improves legi

I think the market is still in the middle innings, not late innings, but the easy money phase is likely over. Why HBM can keep running 1. Structural undersupply Micron expects both DRAM and NAND supply to remain tight beyond 2026, while its HBM capacity is effectively sold out under long-term agreements.  2. HBM crowds out conventional DRAM HBM uses far more wafer capacity and advanced packaging. As Samsung, SK hynix and Micron Technology prioritise HBM, standard DRAM/NAND supply tightens, lifting pricing across the stack. This is why even storage names like SanDisk are rerating.  3. Inference is the second wave Training drove HBM first. Inference clusters, edge AI, AI PCs and memory-rich architectures could extend demand for years. Micron’s CEO calling AI “early innings” is prob

My read: bullish long term, cautious near term on Advanced Micro Devices. What must AMD prove tonight 1. MI300X / MI350 ramp is real revenue, not pipeline talk. 2. Data centre becomes the core engine, not merely a supporting segment. Street expects roughly US$5.6B data centre revenue, already over half of group sales.  3. Guidance uplift. At current valuation, a beat alone may not suffice. 4. Supply confidence at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, because capacity constraints remain a market worry.  Risk AMD has rallied hard into earnings. Options imply about an 8% move either way. Expectations are elevated, so even a good quarter could become sell the news if guidance is merely in line.  My positioning Before earnings: Hold / trim into strength, avoid chasing. If s

My take on post-earnings rally odds: 1) Amazon.com, best setup. AWS has the clearest path from AI capex to revenue. If AWS growth prints >30% and backlog conversion accelerates, upside remains. UBS’s +38% FY26 is bold, but plausible if enterprise AI demand inflects sharply. 2) Microsoft, highest upside and risk. If Azure slows by 4pp, the bear case bites fast. Capex is huge, so revenue acceleration must visibly follow. 3) Alphabet, strong fundamentals, but expectations are stretched. Anything short of near-perfect execution risks downside. 4) Apple, steady but least catalyst-rich. Expect Services, China recovery, and measured AI messaging under John Ternus, rather than a major hardware surprise. Most likely rally: Amazon. Most fragile: Google. Biggest swing factor: Azure growth.

Twilio’s blowout quarter is a reminder that AI winners are not only chipmakers. Application-layer and workflow-layer beneficiaries are beginning to re-rate. For Palantir Technologies, next Monday is important. What matters most: • AIP conversion rate, pilots turning into scaled contracts • Commercial customer growth, not just government wins • Average contract size, proof AI spend is expanding wallet share • Operating margin, showing AI growth is profitable growth Bull case: If Palantir shows AIP is becoming embedded enterprise infrastructure, markets may start viewing PLTR as an AI operating system / agent platform, closer in narrative to enterprise software leaders rather than a defence analytics name. That could spark a sharp rerating. Risk: Valuation remains rich. Good numbers may stil

Advanced Micro Devices is approaching a pivotal print. Bull case: • MI300X / MI350 revenue guidance could confirm AMD is becoming a genuine second source for AI compute, not merely a niche alternative to NVIDIA. • If management signals sustained hyperscaler adoption, the market may start valuing AMD more like an AI infrastructure compounder than a cyclical chipmaker. • Commercial traction, including ecosystem monetisation, strengthens the narrative that AMD’s AI stack is broadening. Risk case: • Expectations are elevated. A beat may already be priced in. • Hyperscaler in-house silicon caps long-term upside multiple expansion. • Gross margin guidance matters. Strong revenue with weaker profitability could trigger a classic sell-the-news move. My view: Near term, sell-the-news risk is real,

Breadth narrowing is a warning sign, but not an immediate sell signal. With ~$725B in committed AI capex, strong hyperscaler earnings, and supply bottlenecks in memory, power and cooling, the structural bull case remains intact. My take: bull run likely continues into May, but leadership broadens and volatility rises. I would not chase index highs here. Prefer buying pullbacks or rotating into laggards. Catch-up sectors: • Utilities / power infrastructure, the hidden AI backbone • Industrials, cooling, electrical equipment, grid upgrades • Healthcare, defensive growth at better valuations • Financials, if rates stay higher for longer • Selective small caps, if breadth expands again Mega-cap AI still leads, but second-order beneficiaries may offer better risk/reward now. The next leg up ma

April’s surge is powerful, but a +10.4% monthly gain for the S&P 500 and +14.8% for the Nasdaq Composite also raises the odds of near-term consolidation. My view: Will the bull run continue in May? Likely yes, but choppier. Momentum, AI capex visibility, and resilient earnings remain supportive. However, after such a steep vertical move, markets often rotate rather than move straight up. Chase or wait? Prefer selective buying on pullbacks (3 to 7%), rather than chasing broad index highs. Risk/reward is less attractive after a euphoric run. Which sector catches up? 1. Financials, especially quality banks if rates stay elevated 2. Healthcare, lagging but defensive growth looks attractive 3. Industrials / power infrastructure, key beneficiaries of AI buildout (grid, cooling, electrical eq

My take: bull trend intact, but May may turn choppier. The bullish case remains strong: AI capex is real, hyperscaler spending is accelerating, and earnings from GOOG, AMZN and MSFT continue to validate infrastructure demand. That supports semis, memory and data centre supply chains. But narrow breadth is a warning sign. If leadership gets crowded, even strong markets can see a healthy 5 to 10% reset. Would I chase? Not aggressively at highs. I would scale in on dips rather than FOMO buy breakouts. Catch-up sectors: 1. MU / storage 2. VRT / power-cooling infra 3. Industrials tied to grid upgrades 4. Select software names that monetise AI, not just spend on it My base case: higher by year-end, bumpier in May.

My view: the biggest winners are still the bottleneck owners. 1. NVDA, the compute toll booth. If GPU demand stays supply-constrained, pricing power remains exceptional. 2. MU / HBM memory suppliers, because memory is now mission-critical, not a commodity add-on. 3. VRT and cooling/power infrastructure names, the overlooked backbone of AI scaling. 4. Fibre/networking plays such as ANET, where bandwidth becomes as valuable as compute. 5. Select utilities, land and data centre REITs, where scarcity can drive repricing. On sky-high capex: bullish near term, but execution risk rises sharply. If AI monetisation lags infrastructure build, markets may start questioning ROI. Until then, the shovel sellers are still in the strongest position.