To The Moon

If I had to choose one for the next 2–3 years, I would pick Marvell (MRVL). The key distinction is that CPO is not simply an “optics boom”. It changes where the value accrues. 1. Marvell: best overall CPO exposure Marvell is positioned across the interconnect stack rather than relying solely on optical modules. Its Celestial AI acquisition gives it Photonic Fabric for scale-up CPO, with management targeting a US$500m annualised run-rate by FY2028 Q4 and US$1bn by FY2029 Q4.  That is potentially a much larger incremental opportunity than merely selling more transceivers. 2. AXT: my second choice, but potentially the biggest near-term torque AXT is becoming a critical upstream bottleneck. Q2 InP revenue hit a record US$30.7m, versus US$13.6m in Q1, driven by AI optical demand.  The

I would pick A. Micron for the next three years. Nvidia remains the strongest AI leader, but expectations and valuation are already extremely high. Micron offers a different way to capture the AI boom, particularly through HBM and high-end memory. AI workloads are becoming increasingly memory-intensive, creating potentially structural demand for faster, higher-capacity memory. The biggest attraction is the possibility that AI demand keeps memory supply tight for longer, allowing Micron to sustain unusually strong pricing and margins. If that happens, earnings growth could significantly outpace the broader market. Berkshire is the safer choice, with diversified businesses, strong cash flow and a huge liquidity cushion. It would probably be my pick if capital preservation were the priority.

Of the four, I would choose Micron for the best risk-adjusted exposure, although SanDisk has the most explosive upside. My ranking: Micron > SK Hynix > SanDisk > Western Digital. Micron: My preferred balance of HBM/DRAM exposure, AI demand and valuation. Druckenmiller's Q2 exit is worth noting, but I would not treat one fund manager's portfolio decision as a fundamental signal.  SK Hynix: Probably the strongest pure HBM beneficiary, but you are paying for that leadership. It is less directly exposed to the SanDisk/NAND thesis. SanDisk: Highest upside, highest risk. The Investor Day genuinely changes the story: eight NBM agreements covering roughly half of FY27 and two-thirds of FY28 capacity provide unusually strong demand visibility. Management is targeting mid-to-high-teens

Alibaba is the print I would be watching most closely. Tencent has just demonstrated the key dilemma for Chinese tech: AI can accelerate revenue, but the infrastructure bill can arrive much faster. Tencent's Q2 capex surged 176% to RMB52.8bn and FCF turned negative, despite revenue rising 11%.  That makes Alibaba's AI Cloud economics particularly important. I want to see whether cloud growth is accelerating enough to justify the enormous AI investment, rather than simply seeing another strong revenue number. If Alibaba can demonstrate strong AI-related cloud demand while keeping margins and cash generation reasonably controlled, it could differentiate itself from Tencent's more capital-intensive trajectory. My ranking: 1. Alibaba: Most important. AI Cloud growth versus capex and FCF i

I would stay invested in AI and semiconductors, but avoid aggressively adding at these levels. The macro backdrop has improved, but the market has already priced in a lot of good news. The S&P 500 is coming off another record close, while July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first decline in nine months. Combined with benign CPI/PPI and weaker employment, this strengthens the case for a September Fed hold.  My preference would be: 1. Keep AI/semis: The secular earnings story remains strong, although valuations and expectations are high. Applied Materials' 5% drop despite good guidance is a reminder that even strong AI-related results can disappoint when expectations are extreme.  2. Gradually rotate into financials/consumer: Not a wholesale switch, but these sectors offer diversi

Keep buying, but selectively. The S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high is not, by itself, a reason to sell. Markets can continue making new highs when earnings, cash flows and economic fundamentals remain supportive. Trying to wait for the “perfect” pullback can also mean missing further gains. That said, I would not chase the market aggressively at these levels. Valuations are elevated, expectations around AI and technology are high, and any disappointment in earnings, interest rates or economic growth could trigger a sharp correction. My approach would be to keep investing gradually, particularly in high-quality businesses and diversified index exposure, while maintaining some cash for opportunities. If the market eventually experiences a meaningful pullback, I would rather use it t

My take: Moat matters, but cash flow is the real test. Buffett’s portfolio highlights why durable competitive advantages can matter more than chasing the fastest growth. A strong moat protects pricing power, customer loyalty and cash generation even when technology and market sentiment change rapidly. I also agree that contrarian thinking is crucial. The best opportunities often appear when the market becomes overly pessimistic about a good business. Ultimately, I would prioritise durable moat + strong free cash flow + sensible valuation. Growth is valuable, but paying any price for growth is not.

I would pick SanDisk > Western Digital > SNXX. SanDisk has the strongest fundamental catalyst. Its FY28–30 model calls for mid-to-high-teens annual revenue growth and ~50% adjusted FCF margins, while multi-year customer agreements are expected to cover roughly two-thirds of FY28 bits. That could make NAND earnings structurally less cyclical than before. WDC is attractive as a secondary beneficiary, but its HDD exposure makes it a less direct play on SanDisk's NAND thesis. I would avoid chasing SNXX after +27%. A 2x leveraged product magnifies the upside, but also the inevitable memory-sector corrections. SanDisk itself has already risen more than sixfold this year, so valuation and expectations are substantial. My choice: SNDK, preferably on a pullback. The Investor Day strengthens t

I lean wait for earnings rather than chase tech at record highs. The inflation backdrop is clearly improving: July CPI eased to 3.4%, while headline PPI was flat MoM and 4.7% YoY, strengthening the case for the Fed to remain on hold. That supports equity valuations, but the S&P 500 is already at a record and much of the easier-policy narrative is being priced in. I would keep existing tech exposure, avoid aggressively adding after the rally, and direct some new money towards gold/defensives. Earnings now need to justify elevated AI and growth expectations. Burry’s bearish positioning is worth noting, but not a timing signal by itself. My positioning: 50% wait, 30% tech on pullbacks, 20% gold/defensives.

I lean genius move, but with a dangerous feedback loop. Nvidia’s $500B plan uses third-party capital to accelerate AI infrastructure spending, effectively helping customers finance the ecosystem that buys its chips. That can extend Nvidia’s growth runway without putting the entire burden on its own balance sheet. The risk is circularity: financing enables more GPU purchases, those purchases strengthen Nvidia’s growth numbers, and strong growth attracts even more financing. If AI utilisation and customer cash flows eventually justify the investment, it is brilliant ecosystem building. If infrastructure expands faster than real AI demand, falling utilisation and rapidly depreciating GPUs could expose overcapacity. My verdict: genius while end-demand keeps catching up; dangerous if financing