To The Moon

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$

The Nasdaq exchange is once again signaling that it intends to stay at the center of global financial innovation. In a bold move, Nasdaq announced a $50 million strategic investment in Gemini’s upcoming IPO, strengthening ties with one of the most prominent regulated crypto exchanges in the United States. At the same time, Figure Technology (FLGR)—a blockchain-powered fintech reshaping the lending and securitization market—is also preparing for a public debut.

For investors, this creates a unique scenario. Rarely do two disruptive IPOs in the financial sector arrive on the same stage, backed by strong institutional partnerships and ambitious growth narratives. The question is no longer whether these companies will attract attention—both are poised to do so—but which IPO deserves a spot in your portfolio?

Nasdaq’s Bold Bet on Gemini

Nasdaq’s $50 million investment in Gemini is more than symbolic—it marks one of the largest direct endorsements by a major exchange in the crypto space. The deal involves deep operational cooperation:

• Nasdaq clients will gain access to Gemini’s crypto custody and staking services, a growing demand area for institutions holding digital assets.

• Gemini’s institutional clients will be able to use Nasdaq’s Calypso collateral management platform, a powerful tool that brings efficiency and credibility to digital asset trading.

This partnership could serve as a blueprint for how traditional finance and digital finance converge. For Nasdaq, the move provides a hedge—if crypto grows in adoption, Nasdaq is positioned to capture volume and service demand. For Gemini, it represents a significant vote of confidence at a time when credibility and trust are currency in the crypto sector.

Why Gemini’s IPO Matters

Gemini’s IPO comes at a critical moment for the crypto industry. After years of regulatory scrutiny, exchange collapses, and volatile trading volumes, institutional investors have been demanding cleaner, more compliant platforms. Gemini, with its roots in regulatory transparency and U.S. oversight, is positioning itself as the “safe harbor exchange” for large-scale adoption.

The Nasdaq partnership strengthens this message. With custody, staking, and collateral management integrated, Gemini has the chance to attract institutional flows from hedge funds, pension funds, and corporate treasuries—investors that historically avoided crypto due to counterparty risk.

Still, Gemini’s growth will remain tied to the crypto cycle. Trading revenues, staking yields, and asset custody are all linked to market sentiment. While that creates enormous upside potential in bull cycles, it also exposes the IPO to sharp downturns when crypto demand softens.

Figure Technology: Quietly Building the Rails of Finance

If Gemini represents the crypto speculation play, then Figure Technology (FLGR) represents the infrastructure bet. Figure isn’t an exchange—it’s a fintech company using blockchain to streamline lending, securitization, and private equity transactions. Its Provenance blockchain is designed to replace outdated, paperwork-heavy financial systems with transparent, efficient, and automated processes.

This is not just about digitizing forms. Figure’s technology has the potential to:

• Reduce the cost of loan origination and securitization.

• Increase efficiency in capital markets, particularly in private lending.

• Expand into private equity and real estate transactions, two of the most opaque areas of finance.

While less flashy than a crypto exchange, Figure’s model attacks inefficiencies in markets worth trillions of dollars annually. For long-term investors, the appeal lies in its potential to become the “plumbing” of the future financial system—a bet on blockchain as a back-office revolution rather than just a speculative asset class.

Comparing Business Models: Speculation vs. Infrastructure

The contrast between Gemini and Figure could not be starker.

• Gemini (GEMI): A revenue model heavily tied to trading fees, custody services, and staking yields. High upside in bull markets, but exposure to regulatory actions and crypto sentiment.

• Figure (FLGR): Revenue from lending, securitization, and blockchain services. Lower volatility, less dependent on retail enthusiasm, but reliant on adoption by slow-moving institutions.

In many ways, Gemini is a short-term trader’s dream IPO—potentially explosive, highly liquid, and capable of sharp price movements in response to crypto headlines. Figure, on the other hand, is better suited for long-term institutional investors, offering a bet on gradual transformation of financial infrastructure.

Valuation and IPO Mechanics

Gemini’s Valuation

While the final pricing has not yet been disclosed, early reports suggest Gemini could target a valuation north of $5–7 billion, depending on crypto sentiment heading into the IPO. This would place it below Coinbase’s debut valuation in 2021 ($85 billion) but still make it one of the larger fintech IPOs of the year. Nasdaq’s $50 million investment may also serve as a signal to anchor investors that the offering is credible.

Figure’s Valuation

Figure, by contrast, is expected to pursue a valuation between $3–4 billion, though the number could rise if institutional demand is strong. Given its focus on enterprise adoption, analysts expect the IPO to be less about retail frenzy and more about gaining strategic long-term investors like asset managers and pension funds.

First-Day Performance: Who Wins the IPO Race?

Historically, IPO performance is driven more by narrative strength than by fundamentals. Consider Coinbase’s 2021 debut, which soared on enthusiasm before gradually retracing.

• Gemini (GEMI): If crypto markets remain bullish into the IPO, Gemini could see a significant first-day pop, fueled by retail traders and institutions eager to gain compliant crypto exposure. However, regulatory risks may cap enthusiasm.

• Figure (FLGR): Expect a more measured debut. The company’s value proposition is compelling, but its story lacks the retail hype that drives big day-one moves. Its performance may be steadier, appealing to funds focused on long-term adoption.

In other words, Gemini may win the day-one battle, but Figure could win the decade-long war.

Risks to Watch

Gemini Risks

1. Regulation: SEC enforcement actions, changing tax policies, or restrictions on staking could materially affect revenues.

2. Volatility: Trading-based revenues mean boom-and-bust cycles.

3. Competition: Coinbase remains the dominant U.S. exchange, with global competitors like Binance (though facing challenges).

Figure Risks

1. Adoption Curve: Convincing institutions to adopt blockchain infrastructure is slow and requires cultural shifts.

2. Execution Risk: Scaling operations and proving efficiency savings in trillion-dollar markets is complex.

3. Visibility: Without a retail brand, Figure risks being overlooked in favor of flashier names.

Strategic Takeaway for Investors

Investors face a classic growth vs. infrastructure decision:

• Gemini (GEMI): Best suited for investors who want exposure to crypto market cycles, are comfortable with volatility, and may even trade around price swings. It’s the momentum IPO of the year.

• Figure (FLGR): Best suited for long-term investors who see blockchain as the inevitable future of financial services. Less explosive, but potentially more durable as adoption grows.

Entry Price Zones

• Gemini (GEMI): An attractive entry may be in the $35–45 per share range, assuming the IPO prices below $50 billion market cap. Any post-IPO dip on regulatory concerns could create a buying window.

• Figure (FLGR): A fair entry zone may lie between $20–28 per share, given its expected $3–4 billion valuation. The key is not chasing a day-one spike but accumulating gradually.

Conclusion: Which IPO Deserves Your Bet?

Both Gemini and Figure highlight the financial industry’s ongoing transformation. Gemini offers direct exposure to crypto speculation, trading volumes, and staking services—backed by Nasdaq’s $50 million endorsement. Figure, meanwhile, positions itself as a quiet disruptor, re-engineering the plumbing of lending and securitization through blockchain.

The decision ultimately depends on your investment horizon and risk appetite:

• If you want to bet on crypto’s next bull run: Gemini is the IPO to watch.

• If you want to own the rails of tomorrow’s financial system: Figure is your long-term choice.

So, investors are left with the big question: Do you want flash or fundamentals, hype or infrastructure?

The IPO stage is set, and Nasdaq’s $50 million bet is only the beginning.

Have you gotten on board yet? Whose first-day performance do you bet on—Figure or Gemini?