To The Moon

$Figure Technology Solutions(FIGR)$

The intersection of traditional finance and blockchain has never been more visible than it is today. After years of skepticism, institutional players are no longer just watching crypto and fintech innovators from the sidelines—they are actively partnering, investing, and building bridges that could reshape capital markets. This week’s events underscore the trend: Figure Technology debuted with a 24% surge, and tonight, Gemini is set to make its long-awaited market entry, backed by a partnership with Nasdaq.

For investors, these back-to-back listings present a fascinating opportunity to compare two very different blockchain stories: one rooted in fintech lending, the other in digital asset custody and exchange. The central question remains: which has more room to run from here—Figure or Gemini?

Figure’s Debut: A Strong First Impression

Figure Technology is not the typical fintech IPO. Founded with a vision to modernize lending, payments, and securitization, Figure uses blockchain technology to eliminate the inefficiencies that plague traditional financial systems.

• Core Offering: Figure provides home equity loans, personal loans, and payment solutions—all executed and recorded on blockchain rails.

• Blockchain Advantage: Settlement times are drastically reduced, and the transparency of the ledger enables faster securitization of loans, lowering costs for both borrowers and lenders.

Investors clearly saw promise. Figure’s shares opened strong, dipped mid-session, and then powered higher to close with a 24% gain. That volatility suggests traders were actively debating valuation, but enthusiasm won out. The debut immediately placed Figure among the most closely watched fintech newcomers of 2025.

Why the Market Cares

1. Lending is ripe for disruption. Traditional securitization is slow and expensive. If Figure proves blockchain-based processes are faster and cheaper, it could capture significant market share.

2. Investors are starved for fintech growth. With big names like PayPal and Block maturing into slower-growth stages, the market is eager for the next breakout fintech.

3. Execution risk remains. A 24% gain on Day One is promising, but Figure still needs to show it can scale loan origination without sacrificing credit quality.

Gemini’s Turn: A Crypto Exchange With Wall Street Backing

If Figure is about blockchain in lending, Gemini is about crypto at scale. Founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, Gemini built its brand around compliance, security, and institutional-grade services. Unlike many of its peers, Gemini positioned itself as the “regulated” alternative to offshore exchanges.

The Nasdaq Partnership

What makes Gemini’s listing especially interesting is its deepening ties with Nasdaq:

• Nasdaq clients will gain access to Gemini’s custody and staking services.

• Gemini’s institutional clients will tap into Nasdaq’s Calypso collateral management platform.

This is more than a partnership—it’s an integration of crypto infrastructure with one of Wall Street’s most established exchanges. For institutional investors wary of holding digital assets on less-regulated platforms, this provides a credible entry point.

Why Gemini’s Debut Could Outshine Figure’s

1. Crypto Sentiment Tailwind: Bitcoin and Ethereum have rallied in recent weeks, and exchange volumes rise alongside asset prices. Gemini stands to benefit directly.

2. Scarcity of Public Crypto Plays: Since Coinbase’s IPO in 2021, few regulated exchanges have gone public. Gemini offers a new vehicle for investors seeking exposure.

3. Partnership Premium: Nasdaq’s involvement adds a layer of credibility—and that could lead to higher institutional participation in Gemini’s debut.

Comparing the Two: Figure vs. Gemini

The debate between Figure and Gemini is not just about stock performance—it’s about two very different visions for blockchain’s role in finance.

Investors with a risk-on mindset may prefer Gemini, betting that a strong crypto market will propel it higher than Figure’s 24% debut. More cautious investors may lean toward Figure, which has clearer paths to cash flow stability in lending.

Valuation Implications

Figure’s Valuation Picture

• Revenue Growth: Analysts project 20–25% annual growth if Figure successfully scales loan origination.

• Profitability Timeline: The firm is still loss-making, but margins could improve as blockchain efficiencies reduce operating costs.

• Comparable Multiples: Figure may trade closer to fintech peers like SoFi, which sit at 3–4x forward sales.

Gemini’s Valuation Picture

• Revenue Sensitivity: Exchange revenues rise and fall with trading volumes, making them highly cyclical.

• Comparables: Coinbase trades at roughly 5–6x forward sales during bullish cycles, collapsing to 2x in bearish ones. Gemini could slot into a similar range.

• Institutional Premium: The Nasdaq tie-up may warrant a premium valuation relative to peers, if adoption scales.

Behind the Excitement: Why Wall Street Is Opening Doors

The broader story here is that Wall Street and blockchain firms are no longer in opposition. Instead, they are finding ways to integrate:

• Nasdaq + Gemini: institutional custody + collateral management.

• BlackRock + Coinbase: ETF custody and trading partnerships.

• JPMorgan’s Onyx platform: settlement and payments on blockchain.

These partnerships suggest the future of finance is hybrid—traditional exchanges and banks will continue to dominate infrastructure, but blockchain-native firms will provide the technological edge.

Risks Investors Should Watch

1. Regulatory Uncertainty: The SEC and global regulators continue to scrutinize crypto custody, staking, and lending. A negative ruling could affect Gemini more than Figure.

2. Market Cyclicality: Crypto valuations are tied to sentiment, liquidity, and macro conditions. A sudden downturn could crush Gemini’s early momentum.

3. Execution Risk: Figure must prove it can scale lending profitably, while Gemini must manage counterparty risk in a volatile sector.

Verdict: Who Wins the First-Day Race?

If forced to place a short-term bet, Gemini has the edge. The combination of crypto hype, scarce public exchange options, and Nasdaq integration could fuel a 30–40% first-day surge, possibly outpacing Figure’s 24% performance.

But over the medium term, Figure may be the steadier performer. Lending and securitization are massive markets, and Figure’s blockchain efficiencies could translate into sustainable revenues even in periods when crypto cools.

Key Takeaways

1. Figure surged 24% on debut, proving blockchain fintech remains attractive.

2. Gemini begins trading tonight, with Nasdaq backing giving it credibility and institutional appeal.

3. Figure offers fintech stability, while Gemini offers crypto-fueled volatility.

4. Investors must weigh risk tolerance—steady lending disruption vs. high-beta crypto exposure.

5. The deeper story is integration: Wall Street and blockchain firms are building bridges, not walls.

Final Word

Both Figure and Gemini represent more than just stock tickers—they embody the next phase of financial innovation. Whether through blockchain-powered lending or institutional-grade crypto custody, the message is clear: the old world of finance and the new world of digital assets are converging.

So, the real question isn’t just “Who wins today?” It’s “Who will still be standing—and thriving—five years from now?”