To The Moon

The Shutdown. With the US government shutdown officially taking effect from 01 Oct 2025, US central bank’s job just got a tad more difficult to manage during these ‘challenging’ times. Wall Street is still expecting 2 more interest cuts for 2025. Given the current impasse, is this even possible ? What’s Known So Far. For week ending 04 Oct 2025, there were 5 reports out, despite shutdown. They were : Jobs opening and labour turnover surveys (JOLTs). Consumer confidence. ADP non-payroll employment. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. S&P Global Final Services PMI. Jobs opening and Labour turnover surveys. US job openings increased marginally in August 2025 while hiring declined, consistent with lackluster labor market conditions that could allow the Fed to cut interest rates again this October despite resilient consumer spending. Based on US Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, job openings, rose +19,000 to 7.227 million vs economists’ forecasts of 7.185 million vs July’s 2025 7.208 million. MoM, August 2025 data reflected a slight increase in opportunities. YoY, jobs openings have moderated from the rapid growth of the post-pandemic recovery, but remain above pre-pandemic averages. Latest JOLTS report highlights an unexpectedly persistent labour demand despite macroeconomic headwinds, and fills a vital information gap amid delayed release of other jobs reports due to the government shutdown. Consumer Confidence. However, the same could not be said for the US Consumer confidence report released on 30 Sep 2025. (see above) For September 2025, consumer confidence fell sharply on growing worries about the labour market. According to the Conference Board, US consumer-confidence index dropped by -3.6 points to 94.2, from an upwards revised 97.8 for August 2025. This is the lowest level since April 2025. Economists polled by Wall Street Journal had forecast the index to slip to 96.0 in September from the initial estimate of 97.4 in August. ADP Non-Farm Payroll. US private sector’s jobs report is not ideal either. For September 2025, the ADP jobs report showed a surprise decline, falling by -32,000 jobs; the biggest decline in 2½ years (since March 2023), well below Wall Street expectations of a 45,000 to 51,000 jobs gain. August 2025’s jobs report also saw a revision to -3,000 jobs from 04 Sep 2025 reported 51,000 jobs. Apart from Education / Health services that’s giving the industry a boost, other industries are languishing, especially Leisure & Hospitality as vacation season wound down. According to ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson: Despite the strong 3.8% economic growth, registered for US Q2 2025 Gross domestic product (GDP), September’s ADP numbers confirmed US employers have been cautious with hiring. On Tue, 30 Sep 2025, Boston Fed President Susan Collins shared: Her baseline outlook does not anticipate much further softening in the labour market, but warns that risks remain. Highlighting a growing possibility that labour demand could fall well short of labour supply, that could result in a more significant and undesirable increase in the unemployment rate. In a twist of event, ADP’s count, this time round will take on added significance as markets widely expect the central bank to cut another quarter point off its key borrowing rate. This comes about because of the unavailability of reports like (a) US weekly jobless claims, (b) US continuing jobless claims, (c) US non-farm payroll on the run up to Oct 28-29 FOMC meeting. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. On 01 Oct 2025, S&P US manufacturing purchase manager index (PMI) final readings for September 2025, was out. (see below) Latest report showed a slowing, weaker gain in production for September 2025, whilst new order book growth softened as tariffs continued to weigh on exports. Final reading came in at 52.0, in line with market expectations and down slightly from August's over three-year high of 53.0. This suggests that market had anticipated the moderation in manufacturing growth. In the short term, manufacturing sector may experience sentiment-driven fluctuations, particularly affecting (a) Industrial and (b) Materials stocks. S&P US Final Services PMI. Like the Manufacturing PMI report, the services equivalent report did not fare well either. (see above) Final S&P Global US Services PMI for September 2025 was revised slightly higher to 54.2 from the preliminary 53.9. It surpassed market estimates of 54 and was lower (by -0.3) than August 2025’s of 54.5. Final reading indicates a strong expansion in US services sector, although the growth pace softened slightly from August's 54.5. The slower growth was linked to a softer expansion of new work, despite an improvement in foreign demand for the first time in 6 months. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Chief business economist, Chris Williamson: Service sector growth softened slightly (in September) but remained strong, contributing to robust Q3 annualized GDP growth, forecasted to be near 2.5%. If forecast is “true”, it will be a marked decline from 2nd quarter GDP of 3.8% and market may not respond well, to a stalling economy. Growth was driven mainly by rising activities in (a) Financial services and (b) Technology sectors. With first interest cut in September 2025, a lower borrowing costs have broadly boosted business optimism for the next 12 months. Heightened cost pressures continue, attributed mainly to tariffs. Input costs rose sharply as tariffs affected both goods & services. Service prices charged grew at the slowest rate in 5 months, suggesting some moderation of tariff-driven supply chain pressures. CME Fedwatch Tool. As of 05 Oct 2025, the latest CME Fedwatch reading for coming October 2025 FOMC meeting, is as follows: As of 05 Oct 2025 There is a 3.8% chance that US central bank will keep interest rate unchanged. There is a 96.2% chance that the Fed will trim another -0.25% off existing rate (4% - 4.25%). Summary. During Trump’s first presidential term, the US government shutdown lasted 35 days. If current shutdown persists similarly for 35 days or more, it will mean all US economic reports up until 05 Nov 2025 - will not be available to the Fed and the World. Without access to US labour / jobs data, Inflation data (CPI & PCE) and other pertinent reports (eg. Import price index, Retail sales etc…) it becomes harder for the Fed to make clear decisions on monetary policy. More importantly, is re-balancing of one’s portfolio is necessary, in the face of a weakening US economy that will affect businesses and in turn affects US market sentiments ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. TSLA Q3 Delivery Sparks a Rally to $500 ? Fri, 03 October. Pick post. KLAR : Just a BNPL Stock or Next BIG Thing ? Thu, 02 October. Pick post. Mag 7 Tumbled After Fed Chair Powell Spoken ! Wed, 01 October. Pick post. Do you think hiring will continue to lag, given that US tariffs’ dusts have not settled yet’? Do you think a portfolio rebalance should include more Financial ($SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$, $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ etc..) & Technology ($NVIDIA(NVDA)$, $Intel(INTC)$ etc..) stocks ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. 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