To The Moon

So OpenAI just signed a massive multi-year deal with $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ to buy up to 6 gigawatts worth of their Instinct GPUs (starting 1GW in H2 2026). And get this — OpenAI even got a warrant to buy up to 10% of AMD’s shares if certain milestones are hit. That’s not some small collab; that’s “we’re basically betting on you” levels of partnership.

OpenAI’s been Nvidia’s golden goose forever, so this move is basically like saying, “Hey Jensen, we love you, but we’re seeing other people now.”

Still, bullish $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ as top semi stock pick. Sell Put NVIDA at any price under$170.

Huge Impact for AMD：

If OpenAI is willing to run their bleeding-edge models on AMD silicon, it’s a big “stamp of approval.” Other AI labs and hyperscalers will start taking AMD way more seriously.

Analysts are already talking about “tens of billions” in potential revenue. If AMD can actually deliver MI450s at scale, this could be transformational for their data center business.

Software ecosystem gets a turbo-boost. ROCm (AMD’s CUDA alternative) has always been the Achilles’ heel. But with OpenAI on board, expect way more dev support and optimization.

OpenAI gets leverage. They’re tired of being at Nvidia’s mercy for pricing and supply. Now they can pit the two against each other. Classic move.

But It’s Not Risk-Free.AMD still needs to execute flawlessly. Making chips is hard. Making them at scale, on time, with high yields and a solid software stack? That’s brutal. ROCm is catching up, but CUDA is still light years ahead in maturity. If devs hate the tooling, this could stall adoption. A lot of the deal is milestone-based (especially the stock warrant), so if AMD stumbles, OpenAI’s upside shrinks fast.

For Nvidia, not a big risk. Nvidia is still the best chips in the game, the deepest software ecosystem. And it mark massive existing contracts with OpenAI (remember the 10 GW LOI earlier this year).

It’s not “AMD replaces Nvidia.” It’s more like: Nvidia keeps the cutting-edge / premium segment, while AMD scoops up the volume & cost-sensitive workloads. Think of it as the iPhone vs Android dynamic. Nvidia doesn’t lose overnight, but their invincible image just took a dent.