To The Moon

Tesla Earnings Preview: Record Car Deliveries and Energy Storage Deployment May Turn the Page on Past Gloom

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   will announce its FY2025 Q3 earnings report after the market closes on October 22. Tesla previously announced a 7.4% year-over-year increase in Q3 vehicle deliveries, which is expected to be a key factor in improving this quarter's revenue. Investors are closely watching changes in the car's gross margin.

Additionally, although commercial progress for Robotaxi and Optimus is temporarily limited, management may reveal further developments and plans during the earnings webcast.

Core Focus: What Is the Market Watching?

~Tesla's Q3 revenue is expected to be $26.58 billion, a roughly 5.53% increase from the level in Q3 FY2024.

~EPS is expected to be around $0.44, a decline of 29.52% from Q3 FY2024.

Considering that Tesla's record-high Q3 deliveries are expected to drive an overall revenue rebound, the consensus expectations are actually relatively conservative.

Four Things to Watch

~Vehicle deliveries and production

Telsa's vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025 reached 497,099, compared to 462,890 in Q3 2024, representing a growth rate of 7.4%, reversing the decline seen over the previous three quarters.

Investors will be looking for confirmation of these figures and for guidance on trends in production and deliveries for Q4, particularly regarding whether Tesla can surpass one million deliveries in the second half of 2025 to exceed the total of 1.79 million vehicles delivered in 2024.

~Automotive gross margin

The automotive business saw a recovery in its gross margin last quarter, which rose to 17.2% in Q2 from 16.2% in Q1. The launch of the higher-priced Model Y L in Q3 is expected to boost per-vehicle profit levels and further improve the gross margin. However, the gross margin base in Q3 of last year was also relatively high at 20.1%.

The Department of Labor's CPI data shows that the year-over-year growth rate of new car prices in the U.S. rose to 0.7% in August. This means that even without model changes, overall revenue is expected to naturally increase with the same sales volume.

~Energy storage segment and services revenue

According to the disclosure on October 2nd, in the third quarter of 2025, Tesla deployed 12.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage, an increase from 6.9 gigawatt-hours in the same period in 2024, setting a new record.

Tesla's energy storage business has been increasing its share of the company's total revenue. At the same time, its gross margin has surpassed that of the automotive segment. Investors may anticipate record gross profits again in this sector.

Additionally, growth in services revenue is also expected to help overall revenue growth. The revenue for the Services/Other segment is estimated to grow by about 20% year-over-year.

~Guidance and strategic updates

Investors are poised to closely examine any new forecasts concerning annual vehicle deliveries, developments in the production of more affordable model 3/Y, and the next rollout plan of robotaxis.

Investors should pay attention to whether the management comments on the launch timing of Optimus 3 during the earnings call. At the same time, investors need to be cautious about whether Tesla will mention an expected decline in Q4 sales in the US due to changes in tax credit policies.

Option Market SignalsTesla's options data shows that its Put/Call ratio is 0.86, which is at a relatively low level compared to the past. Volatility analysis indicates that its implied volatility is 69.07%, higher than the historical average of 51.54%. This suggests that the probability of success for option sellers is higher.

After the past 12 earnings reports, Tesla's stock price has fluctuated on average by 8.40%, making betting on Tesla's earnings a high-risk, high-reward investment.

Summary of Risks and Opportunities

~Potential Positive Catalysts: Product price increases; energy storage segment

~Risks to Monitor: Delay of Optimus and other products; competition in EV area

~Valuation:

Tesla's PE ratio currently exceeds 200 times. This valuation includes expectations for the future monetization of Robotaxis and Optimus robots.

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