To The Moon

Here is a structured, professional assessment of your four questions regarding the Gold market in light of the recent Kuala Lumpur consultations on US-China relations and ongoing macro dynamics.

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1. Will this week’s US-China meeting go well?

There are several positive signals and some risks:

Positive signs:

Reports indicate that US and Chinese negotiators have reached a basic consensus in the Kuala Lumpur consultations and that tensions are “easing”. For example, gold’s decline is explicitly linked to the reduction in safe-haven demand as US-China trade optimism rises. 

Market consensus appears to anticipate a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping (or senior officials) this week, which suggests there is at least a roadmap in place. 

Risks / caveats:

“Going well” in such high-stakes diplomacy doesn’t guarantee a full agreement. Even if an agreement is announced, the implementation can be challenging.

A good meeting outcome may be priced in already by markets. With gold dropping on optimism, part of the positive scenario may already be reflected in prices.

Other factors (e.g., monetary policy, global growth concerns) may offset any optimism from the meeting.

My view: Yes — the meeting is likely to be broadly positive or at least non-adversarial (i.e., not a breakdown). However, exceptional surprise progress should not be assumed. The market seems to lean toward a constructive outcome.

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2. As gold is dipping, should you “bottom-fish” or exit?

This depends importantly on your investment horizon, risk tolerance, and portfolio purpose. Key considerations:

Arguments for exiting or reducing exposure:

Safe-haven demand is weakening as US-China tensions ease, which removes one prop for gold. 

The run up in gold has been very strong this year (50 %+ in some reports). Some analysts see the market as over-extended short-term. 

The US $ and yields might rally if risk sentiment improves, which would be headwinds for gold.

Arguments for bottom-fishing or holding/increasing exposure:

Gold retains structural considerations: inflation concerns, central-bank buying, diversified portfolios in uncertain macro environments. 

If you believe other risk factors (geopolitical, currency, inflation) remain elevated, a dip could offer an attractive entry.

If your horizon is medium- to long-term, a temporary pull-back might not matter; you could view it as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to exit.

My recommendation (tailored to you):

Given the strength of the move already, and given your presumably cautious portfolio (you prefer affordability and presumably risk control), a measured approach may be prudent: consider partial exposure rather than going all-in (“bottom fishing”) or completely exiting. If gold represents a hedge in your portfolio, you might hold existing exposure and consider adding new exposure only if the price reaches a level that offers an acceptable risk/reward (see next section for potential price targets). Exiting entirely might be premature unless your thesis for holding gold has changed.

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3. What’s the next price target of gold? $3,800?

Short-term technical and fundamental outlook:

Current spot gold is reported in the ~$3,900–$4,000 per ounce range (having dipped below $4,000). 

Some analysts now cite a near-term downside target of around ~$3,800 as part of their base case given weakening safe-haven flows. For example, a report indicated gold is nearing its “bearish forecast of $3,800 per ounce for the fourth quarter.” 

On the upside, various forecasts still see sizable longer-term potential (e.g., ~$4,200-4,500 consolidation range) rather than immediate collapse. 

My view on likely target:

If sentiment remains optimistic on US-China + policy expectations (rate cuts), then a rebound toward $4,200-$4,500 might be plausible as the next resistance zone.

If sentiment worsens (trade deal, higher yields, stronger dollar) then a rather more conservative downside target like $3,800 is realistic in the near term.

Given the facts, I’d assign higher probability to the $3,800–$4,000 range (as a potential support zone) being tested before any strong rebound.

So: yes, $3,800 is a plausible target (or floor) in the short term, not necessarily the next upside target.

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4. Is the bull run ending? Or just a healthy pull-back?

Argument for “just a healthy pull-back”:

The underlying structural drivers (inflation risk, central-bank reserves, macro uncertainty) remain intact. Forecasts for 2026 and beyond still remain bullish in some quarters. 

Corrections are common after sharp rallies: gold’s move upward this year has been very strong, which usually means some consolidation/pull-back is natural.

Argument for “bull run might be ending or pausing”:

Some major banks are re-casting caution: for instance, lower targets and forecast ranges, citing improved global growth/risk sentiment. 

With a trade-deal optimism reducing safe-haven appetite, one of the key fuel sources for the rally is diminishing.

My verdict: At this juncture I lean toward: just a healthy pull-back, rather than complete termination of the bull run. The rally is not over, but it is likely entering a more volatile, range-bound or consolidation phase rather than a smooth path higher. In other words, the “easy money” stage may be behind, and future gains may require more fundamental justification rather than purely sentiment/hedge flows.

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Summary

The US-China meeting is likely to go reasonably well, which in itself is a modest negative for gold (via reduced hedge demand).

For gold exposure: rather than exiting entirely or aggressively buying, a measured strategy (hold some, add selectively) may be appropriate.

The next meaningful price zone to watch is around $3,800 (support) and possibly $4,200–$4,500 (if rebound occurs).

The bull run is not over, but is likely shifting into a phase of consolidation/healthy pull-back rather than straight upward momentum.