To The Moon

Here’s my view on the current market environment — in particular, the interplay between equities (stocks) and gold — given the latest key developments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the recent behaviour of bullion.

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Key background/context

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75 %–4.00 %. 

The Fed also announced it will end or very sharply reduce its quantitative-tightening (QT) / balance sheet runoff programme from 1 December, meaning it will stop shrinking its holdings of Treasuries and instead roll them over. 

Importantly, the Fed emphasised that a rate cut in December is by no means assured — the decision remains data-dependent. 

On gold: The metal recently breached USD $4,000 per ounce for the first time and is being driven by a combination of safe-haven demand, weaker US dollar, expectations of easing monetary policy, and geopolitical/structural uncertainty. 

Simultaneously, broader equities have been rallying (you mentioned the rally in the US stock market, including the boost from Nvidia Corporation). So we find a somewhat unusual scenario of both equities and gold being relatively strong.

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My assessment: Will the market rally together with gold?

Short-term (next few months):

It is plausible that both stocks and gold can continue to advance together, though with some caveats and likely increased volatility.

On the positive side, the end of QT and the rate cut create a more accommodative backdrop: lower interest rates → lower discount rates for equities → more positive for stocks. For gold, lower real rates + weaker dollar typically help.

The Fed signalling a willingness to ease (even if December is uncertain) supports risk assets (stocks) and supports gold as a hedge/inflation/structural asset.

Also, we may be in a regime where structural concerns (debt, geopolitics, central-bank credibility) are driving allocations to alternatives like gold even while stocks favour growth themes (AI, tech).

However, risks and frictions remain:

The Fed’s “no guarantee” tone for December means markets cannot fully price a broad easing cycle. If data surprises to the upside (inflation remains sticky, jobs are strong) the Fed may pause — which could hurt both equities (via higher discount rates/valuation risk) and gold (if dollar strengthens, yields rise).

Equities and gold historically often move inversely (stocks up, gold down) when risk appetite is strong. A synchronised rally of both suggests either a “risk-on with hedge” mode or simply quite strong liquidity environment. That may not last indefinitely.

If the rally in stocks is led by a narrow set of names (AI, large caps) while broader markets/earnings remain weaker, the stock rally may be fragile. Gold’s strength suggests underlying risk/uncertainty is still elevated, which is somewhat at odds with a pure bull-equity narrative.

Technical and valuation levels: gold already has surged sharply this year (50 %+ in some estimates) and stocks are at or near new highs. This raises the “how much further” question.

So overall: yes, I believe a simultaneous rally of stocks + gold is possible in the near-term. But I view it as a conditional scenario rather than a guaranteed one.

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My assessment: Is the gold bull market back, and is the pullback ending?

Yes, I believe we are in something that looks like the early stage of a renewed gold bull phase — but with caution that “the pullback” (a correction or consolidation) is not necessarily over. Here’s why:

Bull case for gold:

The fundamentals are supportive: weaker real interest rates, a weaker US dollar, central-bank purchases, safe-haven flows. For example, the World Gold Council notes gold hit US$4,000/oz and the move from US$3,500 to US$4,000 took just 36 days, pointing to a robust run. 

Forecasts are increasingly bullish: a Reuters poll showed average price forecasts above US$4,000 for 2026. 

The drivers of gold’s rally (structural debt/monetary policy fears, geopolitics, diversification away from dollar) are persistent and not easily reversed.

Why the pullback may not yet be fully over:

After a rapid run, gold is already at high levels and historically that tends to invite profit-taking, consolidation or at least periods of sideways movement. For example, there was a dip below US$4,000 recently. 

Technical levels and psychology matter: just because gold has broken through a big milestone doesn’t mean it will smoothly continue upward; risk of “overbought” conditions and mean-reversion exists.

Gold also remains sensitive to competing narratives: if inflation continues to fall, real yields rise, or the dollar strengthens (e.g., via geopolitical resolution or strong US data), gold could correct.

The “bull market” label suggests a sustained multi-year upward trend. While I lean toward that being plausible, it is early to declare a full-blown gold bull that will not face meaningful pullbacks.

My verdict: I would say yes, the gold bull trend appears to be “on” again. But I would not assume that the current rally is “pullback-free” or that gold will simply go straight upward. Expect potential bumps, consolidations, corrections before resuming another leg higher.

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What I’m watching (risks & triggers)

To evaluate which scenario plays out, I would keep an eye on:

1. US inflation & labour market data – If inflation remains sticky and employment strong, the Fed may pause easing → negative for gold, mixed for stocks.

2. US dollar & yields – A rising dollar or rising real yields tends to exert pressure on gold; conversely, a falling dollar / real yield supports gold.

3. Liquidity / central-bank signals – The end of QT is significant; if liquidity tightens again (reserves drop, money markets stressed) that could hurt risk assets and boost gold.

4. Equity breadth / earnings – If stock rally narrows to a few mega-caps while broader earnings weaken, that may indicate fragility and could favor safe-havens like gold.

5. Geopolitical / macro uncertainty – Any major shock (trade war escalation, debt-ceiling drama, geopolitical conflict) tends to favour gold and potentially dampen risk assets.

6. Technical levels – In gold: how it holds near support around the US$3,900‐4,000 zone (some analysts point to ~US$3,940 support). 

In equities: whether valuations are extended and whether there is meaningful consolidation.

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My actionable opinion (for your context)

Given that you prefer affordable options and are working on broader strategic thinking (rather than short-term trading), here are my takeaways:

If you already have exposure to equities (especially quality/growth names) and you believe in the macro backdrop (Fed easing, liquidity supportive), maintaining exposure makes sense.

Simultaneously, given the supportive case for gold, it may make sense to allocate a modest hedge or diversification position in gold (or in broad-based gold ETFs, not speculative mining plays) — recognising the potential for further upside but also the risk of pullback.

Do not assume that both stocks and gold will only go up smoothly; build in flexibility/contingency: i.e., if gold corrects, good buying opportunity; if stocks falter, gold’s role as hedge kicks in.

From a risk-management standpoint: If you’re overweight tech/growth in equities (given the NVIDIA/AI boost), you might want to offset by adding slightly to gold/precious-metal exposure to balance risk of policy pullback or macro shock.

Be cautious about expecting massive short-term returns in gold alone; treat it more as a medium-term strategic allocation rather than a fast trade. Given your interest in stable progress (as you’ve said you like to live life slowly and stably), this fits well.

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Summary

Yes, there is a credible backdrop for stocks and gold to rally together in the near term, given the Fed’s actions and market expectations.

Yes, I believe the gold bull market appears to have restarted, but with the caveat that pullbacks, consolidations and risk of correction remain quite likely.

My view leans towards maintaining exposure to both, with attention to policy/data risk, and being mindful of valuation, liquidity and breadth risks.